In an outline of his speech, Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign revealed he has no time for terms like “de-risking” or “diversifying.” He will instead unveil a full-throated “pro-trade approach to sensibly decoupling from China.” Email Matt
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — On Thursday, GOP presidential candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY will unveil his China policy, and it’s bad news for Biden’s climate agenda as well as U.S. support for Taiwan.
In an outline of his speech, shared with NatSec Daily, Ramaswamy’s campaign revealed he has no time for terms like “de-risking” or “diversifying.” Ramaswamy will instead unveil a full-throated “pro-trade approach to sensibly decoupling from China.”
He calls it a declaration of “economic independence from China” and describes it as an update of the Reagan Doctrine “from ‘peace through strength’ to ‘prosperity through peace.’” Ramaswamy sees the path to that end goal through explicit decoupling of the U.S. economy from China’s in areas including reliance on Chinese-produced materials for America’s military industrial complex as well as rare earths and lithium.
“We don’t have to ban Chinese imports; we just need to buy from other countries that produce the same things,” the speech outline said.
And he wants to end U.S. reliance on China as a supplier of pharmaceuticals out of concern that Beijing could — literally — spike the supply. In the event of war, China could “use poisoning of the legal pharmaceutical supply chain to unleash further hell on the U.S.,” said the speech outline.
Now for the climate stuff. A key plank of Ramaswamy’s China strategy is abandoning Biden administration policies to address the climate crisis through encouraging the production and adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy including solar power. Biden’s climate change agenda “has nothing to do with the climate and everything to do with letting China catch up to the U.S.,” the speech outline said.
That argument ignores the fact that foreign companies including Japan’s Sumitomo Corp. are already diversifying rare earth supplies for EVs from China to suppliers in Southeast Asia and — surprise, surprise — the U.S.
When it comes to Taiwan, Ramaswamy’s strategy will deepen suspicions in Taipei that his presidency might renege on a U.S. commitment in the Taiwan Relations Act to “resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion” against the self-governing island. Ramaswamy seeded those fears last month when he declared that U.S. obligations to defend Taiwan should end when the U.S. has achieved “semiconductor independence” by 2028.
“There are two separate reasons for China to invade/annex Taiwan, one of which must be wholly unacceptable to the U.S. — to exert economic dominion over the U.S.,” the speech outline said. Ramaswamy implicitly accepts that the second, unstated Chinese rationale for attacking Taiwan shouldn’t trigger a U.S. response.
The Inbox
LAVROV AND ZELENSKYY TAKE UNSC: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY surprised observers at today’s special meeting of the U.N. Security Council, assailing the U.N. for its ineffectiveness in combating Russian aggression toward Ukraine, as our own NAHAL TOOSI, Eric and MONA ZHANG report.
Dressed in his usual green military fatigues, Zelenskyy urged the Security Council to suspend Russia’s veto power as a permanent member of the body in light of Moscow’s actions and bashed the U.N.’s failures to uphold its values amid the war.
“Ukrainian soldiers now are doing at the expense of their blood what the U.N. Security Council should do by its voting. They’re stopping aggression and upholding the principles of the U.N. Charter,” Zelenskyy said. The Ukrainian leader also voiced his support for reforms to the Security Council that would make the body “fully accountable to the nations of the world.”
Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV countered that the U.N. has been applying its charter “on a case-by-case basis” and accused Ukraine of committing human rights violations against the country’s Russian ethnic minority. Lavrov further claimed the West was to blame for its support of a “Nazi regime” in Ukraine.
The showdown in the Security Council chamber occurred against the backdrop of a busy day at the U.N. General Assembly. The EU is expected to ask China to push Russia toward a “just peace” in Ukraine, as Reuters’ GABRIELA BACZYNSKA reported. President JOE BIDEN and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU also met today on the sidelines, our own MYAH WARD and JONATHAN LEMIRE report. The two pledged to pursue normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel and discussed many issues, including Israel’s judicial overhaul and Iran’s nuclear program.
NAGORNO-KARABAKH CEASE-FIRE: Armenian separatists have surrendered and agreed to a cease-fire a day after Azerbaijan launched an “anti-terrorist operation” in the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports.
Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense told state media that Armenian separatists will “lay down their weapons, leave their combat positions and military posts and disarm completely. Units of the Armenian armed forces [will] leave the territories of Azerbaijan, illegal Armenian armed groups [will be] dissolved.” The office of Azerbaijani President ILHAM ALIYEV has said representatives of the Karabakh Armenians will meet with the Azerbaijani government Thursday in the city of Yevlakh, to the northeast of the region, to discuss “issues of reintegration.”
Worries persist that Azerbaijan may try to forcibly evacuate the ethnically Armenian enclave within its territory. Russian peacekeepers evacuated 2,000 people during the fighting, and Baku has previously said those unwilling to accept being governed as part of the country should leave for Armenia.
Read: Calls grow for EU sanctions on gas-rich Azerbaijan over ethnic cleansing fears by Gabriel and GREGORIO SORGI.
MOSCOW ‘OWES IRAN SOMETHING’: It’s possible that Russia could start helping Iran boost its military program as Tehran provides Moscow with bomb-carrying drones, the top U.S. Air Force commander in the Middle East told reporters today.
“Who would have ever thought that the Russian Federation would need to go to Iran for military capabilities, and yet we’re there,” said Lt. Gen. ALEXUS GRYNKEWICH, the head of U.S. Air Force Central, per The Associated Press’ JON GAMBRELL. “That means that Russia actually owes Iran something. I’m concerned about the level of collaboration that might happen.”
PEN PAL XI: Official Chinese references to U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific are rarely flattering. But suddenly, Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING has positioned himself as one of the U.S. military’s biggest fans, Phelim writes.
Xi recalled the efforts of the American Volunteer Group of the Chinese Air Force, better known as the “Flying Tigers,” who fought the Japanese over China during World War II in a letter to JEFFREY GREEN, chair of the nonprofit Sino-American Aviation Heritage Foundation.
The Flying Tigers “withstood the test of blood and fire, and forged a profound friendship” with the Chinese people, Xi said in a partial transcript of the letter published Tuesday in Chinese state media. Xi urged the creation of “a new generation of Flying Tigers” as an antidote to troubled bilateral ties. He wrote an equally effusive note last month to a grandson of U.S. Gen. JOSEPH STILWELL, who led U.S. and Chinese troops in the China-Burma-India Theater during World War II.
Xi’s surge of public affection for the U.S. military likely isn’t an accident.
“To me, it’s a clear indicator from Xi Jinping that he wants the bilateral in San Francisco in November,” DENNIS WILDER, former NSC senior director for East Asian affairs, tweeted today, referring to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.
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2024
CHINA’S ‘LAUGHING AT US’: GOP presidential candidate NIKKI HALEY bashed President JOE BIDEN’s speech at UNGA on Tuesday, in which he attempted to persuade countries to choose American institutions for their development rather than Chinese ones.
“China sees us as an enemy. They’ve been preparing for war with us for years, and that’s what you’re going to do, you’re going to talk about climate change and the fact they are a competitor,” the former U.N. ambassador said on Fox News this morning. “The Chinese had to be celebrating and they’re laughing at us.”
Haley, a prominent China hawk who has heavily criticized the White House stance toward China while on the campaign trail, cited the Chinese spy balloon incident, the fentanyl crisis and the Chinese military base in Cuba as examples of the administration’s failure to counter Beijing.
“It is embarrassing,” she said.
Keystrokes
HUAWEI BACK AT IT: Chinese tech giant Huawei has been shipping new Chinese-made chips for surveillance cameras this year, indicating the company is finding ways to get around U.S. export controls, two people briefed told Reuters.
Shipments from the company’s HiSilicon chip design unit started this year and have included at least some Chinese customers, the people said. Huawei has also begun making smartphones with advanced chips, showing that the company has successfully obtained components and tech from U.S. firms without approval.
“A key factor is that the company appears to have worked around U.S. restrictions on chip design software,” Reuters reports, adding that “HiSilicon’s return would shake up the market.”
Read: U.K. Chancellor JEREMY HUNT defends China’s invitation to AI summit by our own STEVEN OVERLY.
The Complex
DON’T ASK, DON’T TELL: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN announced the DOD will review cases of veterans forced out of the military because of their sexual orientation who may be eligible for a retroactive honorable discharge, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports.
The Pentagon will initiate new outreach campaigns “to encourage all Service members and Veterans who believe they have suffered an error or injustice to seek correction to their military records” in the coming weeks, Austin said in a statement issued on the 12th anniversary of the repeal of the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy of banning LBGTQ+ members from serving in the military.
The Pentagon estimates that while the ban was in effect from 1994 to 2011, roughly 2,000 troops were separated from the military and denied honorable discharges due to their sexual orientation. Without honorable discharges, many were denied access to veteran benefits, including home loans, health care, some government jobs and college tuition assistance.
Read: DOD takes new steps to fund domestic microelectronic production by our own PAUL McLEARY (for Pros!).
Read: France and Germany clash (again) on buying US arms by our own LAURA KAYALI.
On the Hill
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — SENATORS PRAISE OVERSIGHT: A group of four senators applauded the appointment of ROBERT STORCH as the lead inspector general for the oversight of Ukraine aid.
“The United States has unprecedented visibility into how Ukraine is using American weapons,” Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL said in a statement, crediting Senate Republicans. “I am encouraged by the Department’s latest efforts to expand U.S. oversight as we continue to equip Ukraine to win.”
Sens. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.), JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) and SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) also praised the appointment. Keeping tabs on the billions of dollars in aid Washington has sent to Ukraine has been a hot topic since the war broke out, as lawmakers have argued over the best way to ensure that there’s appropriate oversight.
SCHUMER CHALLENGES COACH: Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER has teed up votes to advance three top military nominees who have been jammed up by Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) — spurring a confrontation over his monthslong blockade of hundreds of senior promotions, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports.
Schumer filed cloture, a procedural motion to end debate, on three of Biden’s senior picks — Gen. C.Q. BROWN to be Joint Chiefs chair, Gen. RANDY GEORGE to be Army chief of staff and Gen. ERIC SMITH to be Marine commandant.
The Democratic leader said on the floor today that he would seek an agreement to shorten the time to hold the procedural votes later in the day. If Tuberville objects, Schumer warned the Senate will stay in session Friday and Saturday until all three Joint Chiefs nominees are confirmed.
Read: Defense CEOs want help cutting China ties by our own JOE GOULD (for Pros!).
ICYMI: Hardliners block defense spending bill as GOP civil war worsens by Connor.
Broadsides
‘REMAIN VIGILANT’: India urged its dual citizens in Canada to exercise “extreme caution” and “remain vigilant” after the countries each expelled one of the other’s diplomats following the murder of a Sikh separatist leader in British Columbia.
“Given the deteriorating security environment in Canada, Indian students in particular are advised to exercise extreme caution and remain vigilant,” India’s foreign ministry said per Reuters’ YP RAJESH and RUPAM JAIN.
The ministry added that there’s “a threat of terrorism, militancy, civil unrest and kidnapping,” citing “anti-India activities and politically-condoned hate crimes.” Canadian officials have declined to say why they believe India could be linked to the murder.
DO MORE FOR SUDAN: A top Republican and Democrat are calling on the Biden administration to bolster U.S. assistance to Sudan five months into the country’s war.
“The humanitarian toll continues to grow as both belligerents have shown insufficient commitment to protect civilian life,” House Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) and Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) wrote in a statement today.
The pair cited “particularly concerning … atrocities” committed by the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group, which is battling the Sudanese army.
“The Biden administration must prioritize working with our partners and relevant actors in the region to mediate a politically sustainable resolution to this crisis,” they wrote.
Transitions
— JONATHAN SCHRODEN has been appointed as research director of the Afghanistan War Commission. He most recently worked as the director of the countering threats and challenges program and the special operations program at the Center for Naval Analyses.
— RICK ZAMPELLI will be joining Cornerstone Government Affairs’ federal government relations team. Zampelli previously served as director of the U.S. Army liaison office to the U.S. House of Representatives.
— The White House announced its 2023-24 fellows, which includes placements at the CIA, Navy, the Office of the National Cyber Director, the NSC and the Department of Veterans Affairs.
What to Read
— MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY, POLITICO: Trying to persuade Ukraine to negotiate with Putin would be an error
— JAMES JONES and TOD WOLTERS, The Hill: We’re going to need a bigger NATO — but especially a better NATO
— ELAINE DEZENSKI and DAVID RADER, Foreign Policy: How China Uses Shipping for Surveillance and Control
Tomorrow Today
— The Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: The legacy and future of the Wagner Group
— The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9:30 a.m.: Transatlantic Trends 2023: Public Opinion in a Shifting Global Order
— The Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: A hearing on the nominations of DEREK CHOLLET to be Defense undersecretary for policy; and CARA ABERCROMBIE to be an assistant Defense secretary
— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: A discussion on VICTOR CHA and RAMON PACHECO PARDO’s book “Korea: A New History of South and North”
— The Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service’s Center for European, Russian and East European Studies, 11 a.m.: When Things Fall Apart: Can U.S./Russia Relations be Rebuilt?
— The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: The 2024 presidential race is on: how will U.S. China policy and the Ukraine war shape it?
— The Cato Institute, 12 p.m.: Why U.S. Efforts at Defense Burdensharing Fail
— The Georgetown University Institute for Women, Peace and Security, 1 p.m.: A Conversation with Ukrainian First Lady OLENA ZELENSKA
Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who is always laughing at us.
We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who is always laughing with us.
