TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China is likely to prefer a non-violent method of taking control of Taiwan over a potentially risky war, veteran foreign policy specialist Robert Manning wrote in a piece for the Stimson Center published Friday (Oct. 27).
The former State Department strategist and ex-director of Asian Studies at the Council of Foreign Relations disputed the view that Beijing saw an assault and a conflict with the United States as the most rapid way of resolving the issue in its favor. Recent war games showed that such a confrontation entailed immense risks, including the destabilization of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule if it failed to take Taiwan.
Manning wrote that China might prefer the use of “non-kinetic coercion” to a direct invasion. The latter would pose the problem of transporting sufficient numbers of troops to Taiwan and could bog down its troops in a ground war on the island.
Beijing might prefer methods such as hacking into Taiwan’s critical infrastructure, including electronic communications and water supply, and threatening the 300,000 Taiwanese living and working in China, Manning said. The measures would add to Beijing’s current efforts, including sending planes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), cyberattacks, sudden import bans for Taiwan farm produce, and attempts to further reduce Taipei’s diplomatic allies.
The strategy would force Washington to escalate sanctions to try and stop China’s actions. However, if U.S. efforts failed, it would be “put in the position of firing the first shots and escalating the conflict,” according to Manning. A demand from the U.S. directed at its allies and other nations in Asia to cut trade links with China could fail to obtain results, in effect making a blockade of Taiwan unnecessary, he said.
