Winnie The Pooh

Taiwan election: China will pay price for war says lone radioman monitoring conflict from his car – The Telegraph Feedzy

 

A silver Ford with homemade antennae poking out from its roof pulled up on the southernmost tip of Taiwan last week.

It was driven by Robin Hsu, a former navy radar operator, and the front seat of the vehicle was stuffed with portable radio equipment.

Mr Hsu, 50, has spent the past three years on a lonely quest to document the Chinese military’s growing aggression, recording a war-of-words on military radio frequencies.

Puffing on one cigarette after another, Mr Hsu documents any interactions between Chinese, Taiwanese and US jets and posts the results on Facebook – hoping to warn the world of  the seriousness of the threat from Beijing.

On Wednesday, he captured the Taiwanese Air Force warning off a Chinese Y-8 antisubmarine jet as it was approaching Taiwan’s airspace.

“To the PRC [People’s Republic of China] military aircraft at an altitude of 7,000 metres in the southwestern airspace of Taiwan, be advised that you have entered our ADIZ [air defence identification zone], affecting our flight safety. Turn immediately and leave,” a voice says above the static.

Mr Hsu had travelled to Hengchun township as the Chinese planes headed for Taiwan, and his quest to capture Beijing’s “grey zone” warfare has taken him to remote hilltops and beaches across the country.

In one of Mr Hsu’s recordings from  November, a US officer can be heard telling his Chinese interlocutors that his US aircraft is “operating in international airspace”, ending with an exasperated: “C’mon man!”

China’s escalating military and political pressure on Taiwan forms the backdrop of its presidential and parliamentary elections this weekend as the island nation decides how best to stand up to Beijing.

One of worlds biggest potential flashpoints

The new president selected by some 19 million Taiwanese voters will be tasked with maintaining peace and stability in one of the world’s biggest potential flashpoints. His leadership will not only set the tone for Taipei’s ties with Beijing but could have profound consequences for China’s relationship with the US.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which has warned it will invade Taiwan if it refuses to sign up to peaceful annexation, has repeatedly been accused of trying to manipulate and shape the elections to favour its sovereignty claims.

Yesterday, it said it hoped the majority of Taiwanese “make the right choice”, warning of the “extreme danger” of a victory for Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in triggering a cross-strait conflict.

During the DPP’s tenure, China has ramped up its efforts to psychologically intimidate the Taiwanese public and undermine the government by flying military aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ – the buffer zone next to its territorial airspace – on a nearly daily basis.

Mr Hsu finds the brazen operations maddening.

“If China is trying to scare us it will only bring the Taiwanese together. It will make us stronger,” Mr Hsu told The Telegraph this week as he drove through Hengchun’s patchwork of onion fields, scanning the airwaves.

Stopping his car at the side of a narrow lane cutting across the fresh green crops, he lit a cigarette as a Blackhawk helicopter suddenly came into view.

Its arrival signalled the start of a drill by a local military unit that had lined up amphibious assault vehicles and Humvees on a nearby stretch of waste ground.

Loud booms pierced the air as the assault vehicles fired rounds at red and yellow targets on a nearby hill overlooking Hengchun airport. Its runway, only 50 miles from the major city of Kaohsiung, would be a prized conquest in an invasion scenario, and the hill would be crucial to holding it, explained Mr Hsu.

“We need to be ready to fight if war happens,” he said. “If China really brings war here, they will have to pay a huge price.”

The blasts of the munitions mixed with the steady hum of a farmer spraying pesticides along neat rows of onions.

Local people have learned to live with the thunder of regular military exercises, a constant reminder of the potential for conflict.

“I support the drills. It’s like an athlete – you have to train every day,” said Wu Xuan-qing, a mechanic who owns a nearby repair workshop.

China and Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party have framed the poll as a choice between war and peace. The DPP has criticised the KMT for parroting China’s line, and argued voters face a decision between democracy and autocracy.

Maverick former mayor

On Thursday, Hou Yu-ih, the KMT’s presidential candidate, who trails Mr Lai by only a few points, charged that he was a danger to cross-strait relations and the DPP had failed over eight years in office to de-escalate tensions with China.

Pledging that Taiwan’s future would be decided by its own people, he said he would strengthen deterrence both militarily and through dialogue with Beijing.

The third candidate, Ko Wen-je, a maverick former mayor who founded the centrist Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), has emerged as an unexpected political force who offers a middle path out of the deadlock of the two establishment parties.

All three have vowed to bolster Taiwan’s military and defence capabilities and to protect Taiwan’s tight bond with Washington, the island’s main arms supplier.

The question facing Taiwan’s voters is who they trust most to safeguard their cherished freedoms and democratic way of life from being crushed by authoritarian China.

The Hengchun peninsula would hold a unique strategic position in a future military confrontation with Beijing. Jutting out from the bottom of the island, it faces the Pacific Ocean to the east, the Bashi Channel separating Taiwan and the Philippines, and the Taiwan Strait to the west.

People have learned to live with the thunder of Taiwan military drills

Chuang Shu-ping, the owner of the Hai De Yanse hotel in Hengchun town, said that while the threat of conflict was unpredictable, she had more immediate concerns arising from China’s economic coercion strategy.

The tourism-reliant region took a hit in 2019 when China banned permits for its citizens to visit Taiwan, in what Taipei called a “politicised” move.

Ms Chuang said the loss of Chinese income may prompt people to vote for the candidate they believed could bring the tourists back.

“The relationship with China matters a lot. People are so afraid of that, especially business people, because when the political situation is not stable it will affect them a lot,” she said.

Beyond the domestic impact of Taipei’s fraught relations with Beijing, the eyes of the world will be on Taiwan’s elections.

Any annexation of the island would have major economic and security repercussions.

Taiwan produces 90 per cent of the world’s most advanced semiconductor microchips, which are vital to household goods and every industry including artificial intelligence.

A blockade of the Taiwan Strait would affect the transport of 50 per cent of the world’s containers and cost the global economy at least $2 trillion (£1.6 trillion), according to Rhodium Group.

From a hard, strategic point of view, occupying Taiwan would grant China much desired open access to the Pacific coastline, presenting an additional challenge to Washington’s free and open Indo-Pacific strategy.

Beijing is highly opposed towards any interaction between the US and Taiwanese governments.

On Thursday, it called on the US to “refrain from intervening” in the elections, to avoid “causing serious damage to China-US relations” after Washington said it would send a delegation there following this week’s polls.

Amanda Hsiao, International Crisis Group’s senior China analyst, said it was vital for the Biden administration at such a fragile time to carefully communicate the intentions of the delegation, both publicly and privately with Beijing.

China would likely step up its economic and military intimidation of Taiwan in the event of a Lai victory, she said.

She added: “They have already said he is essentially a troublemaker. Beijing will have to follow through on that, to show to its domestic audience it has a grasp on the situation and also to make clear to the Taiwanese population the consequences of their choice.”

A Hou win could lead to less military activity around the island, a pause in economic penalties and resumed dialogue in the near term. But it was unclear “how long that potential honeymoon period would actually last” before he faced renewed pressures, she said.

 

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