Voters in Taiwan elected Vice President Lai Ching-te as their next president over the weekend, a move that will set off a chain reaction of events sure to shape the globe for decades.
Lai, a member of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, or DDP, is viewed by China as a “separatist” and an impediment to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plans for “reunification” with the island, which Xi described as an inevitability as recently as New Year’s Day. A Chinese defense ministry spokesman attempted to sway the outcome by announcing that China was prepared to “crush any form of secessionist designs for “Taiwan independence” on the eve of the election. But Taiwanese voters rebuffed Beijing by electing Lai, a leader whose party has long maintained that Taiwan is a de facto sovereign nation.
“This is a night that belongs to Taiwan,” Lai said at a rally following his victory. “We managed to keep Taiwan on the map of the world.”
The failure of China to influence the election increases the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait in the near future. China has invested heavily in rebuilding its military in recent years in anticipation of a clash between Taiwan and its allies, including the United States. President Joe Biden, for his part, has said on numerous occasions that the U.S. would send troops to defend the island should China invade. Lai’s refusal to relinquish Taiwanese independence and Xi’s insistence on the One China principle, which states that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, makes the prospect of an open military conflict between the world’s two great powers seem inevitable.
There are a number of reasons why China is determined to take Taiwan. More than a “sacred” territory, Taiwan is a regional economic powerhouse in a crucial geostrategic position within the world’s most consequential economic region. With Taiwan under its thumb, China would control the major shipping routes of a region that is slated to account for 60% of the global GDP by 2030. This has major implications for the global order. Whoever controls the economy of the Indo-Pacific will be able to exert its influence over the rest of the world.
A Chinese takeover would also significantly weaken the U.S.’s military capabilities in the region, leaving other democratic allies vulnerable, such as Japan and South Korea. The fall of Taiwan would consolidate China’s power in the Indo-Pacific and signal its emergence as a global superpower. As ever, North Korea will play the role of a malevolent wild card.
There are also many reasons why China would move on Taiwan in the near future. In the Biden years, American deterrence has eroded beyond recognition, as evidenced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Iranian influence in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. The burgeoning authoritarian axis of the powers in the East no longer fear America’s response to their actions.
America’s resources are also stretched perilously thin at present, having given more than $100 billion (and counting) to the Ukrainian war effort and tens of billions more to the Israeli war effort. Biden has assured the public that America will be able to defend Taiwan from the Chinese threat amid the international chaos. But given his foreign policy track record, which includes the shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan, the idea that the U.S. can “walk and chew gum” is impossible to swallow. It is similarly difficult to imagine America’s internal political dysfunction allowing for an effective and unified response to yet another foreign policy crisis.
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And yet, America must respond in Taiwan with tact and strength. Losing the island means losing Asia, and losing Asia means losing the future. How we respond to the conflict will define the 21st century, for better or worse.
Every four years, people are told that the “most important election of our lifetime” is upon them. But it’s possible that the election of Lai in Taiwan will be regarded as such by history for setting the U.S. and China on an inescapable collision course.
Peter Laffin is a contributor at the Washington Examiner. His work has also appeared in RealClearPolitics, the Catholic Thing, and the National Catholic Register.
