Washington, Jan. 18 (CNA) The outcome of Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections will not raise the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, former U.S. National Security Council China Director Ryan Hass said Wednesday.
Although Beijing would have preferred a candidate other than the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Lai Ching-te (賴清德) to have won, that fact alone “does not raise the risk of war,” Hass said in a commentary published by the American think tank Brookings Institution.
Hass currently serves as director of the John L. Thornton China Center in the U.S. and the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies at Brookings.
He assessed that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) does not need to gain control of Taiwan in the near term, he just cannot afford to permanently “lose” Taiwan on his watch.
Hass added that Xi needs to continue to be able to call unification with Taiwan a “historical inevitability,” just like every People’s Republic of China leader before him.
In addition, the fact that a majority of Taiwan’s people want the status quo to continue also provides a “soothing set of facts” for Xi, Hass said.
Meanwhile, Richard Bush, former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), said that Taiwan’s political system is more fragmented and complicated than it has been since 2008.
Bush stated that the Taiwan People’s Party winning eight seats in the Legislature would give them significant bargaining power vis-à-vis the Kuomintang and the ruling DPP.
However, Bush noted that Taiwan’s politicians had prior experience working out legislative compromises, where no party gets all it wants, “but society gets the policies it needs.”
“Those bargaining skills will now be at a premium,” Bush added.
Also on the elections, Patricia Kim, a research fellow at Brookings’ Center for East Asia Policy Studies, said Lai affirmed his responsibility to protect cross-strait peace and stability while indicating an openness to dialogue with China “under the principles of dignity and parity.”
“The ball is now in Beijing’s court,” Kim said, adding that China has to show the world that while it will not give up its claims and goals, it too can act “judiciously and pragmatically” in its pursuit of peace and stability.
Meanwhile, Adam Liff, a nonresident senior fellow with the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings, stated that the successor to President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) long-serving Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) will have their work cut out for them.
U.S. policymakers have to pay close attention to Taiwan’s legislative bargaining, including on defense-related spending and other matters of particular concern to Washington, as well as Taiwan’s expansion of international support and Beijing’s pressure on the island nation’s diplomatic allies, he said.
Meanwhile, Susan Thornton, former acting assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs at the Department of State, said Taiwanese people are actually “not so divided.”
“They all want to live in basic security and tranquility, they want to enjoy their hard-earned freedoms, and they want their government to improve their livelihoods, especially for the next generations, and to be accountable,” she stated.
“Taiwanese people want their government to find a way to get along with their ‘mainland neighbors’ to the extent that they can keep the status quo of separate rule with economic and cultural exchange,” Thornton added.
