Our colleagues from RTL recently spoke to an international security policy expert about the global geopolitical landscape, encompassing regions like Ukraine, China, North Korea, the Middle East, and Africa, which he said is becoming increasingly complex and uncertain.
In light of these developments, ensuring the security of Europe and its inhabitants has become a pressing concern for both the EU and NATO. To gain insights into strategic responses, our colleagues from RTL.lu recently spoke to Nico Lange*, a German expert on international security policy.
And this conversation kicked off with the conflict that is taking place right on Europe’s doorstep, so to speak: The war in Ukraine.
Switching from sporadic to systematic support for Ukraine
Lange believes that while Ukraine might have shown that it is possible to win against Russia, this would not mean that the war in Ukraine will soon be over. According to Lange, the smartest thing the EU and NATO can do is to prepare for a long conflict that will not come to an end through wishful thinking. Even just the Ukrainian counter-offensive is expected to last well into next year, Lange pointed out.
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WOJCIECH GRZEDZINSKI ANADOLU AGENCY Anadolu Agency via AFP
Lange stressed the need for both the EU and NATO to shift from sporadic to systematic support for Ukraine. In this endeavour, industry collaboration assumes a pivotal role.
Lange highlighted the significance of expanding production capacities and developing essential technologies to bolster Ukraine’s armed forces and strengthen security and defence capabilities for the future. Industry’s active engagement in providing systematic support becomes vital to address the ongoing conflict effectively, he noted.
Sanctions against Russia were also a message directed towards China
Apart from Russia, China is currently the actor that poses the greatest challenge to the existing global security order, according to Lange. The Russian invasion of Ukraine raised concerns about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, leveraging the turmoil in the aftermath of the conflict. However, Russia’s invasion did not achieve its intended military objectives, raising questions about whether China, as a partner of Russia, might reconsider the risks associated with an invasion of Taiwan.
Nevertheless, Lange warns that the possibility of such an invasion remains real. Chinese President Xi Jinping has explicitly expressed his goal of unifying China and Taiwan, a statement that “should be taken seriously”.
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SAM YEH AFP
At the same time, Lange acknowledges that the Western states, along with countries like Australia and Japan, sending harsh economic and financial sanctions to Russia, had implications beyond Russia itself – it was also a message directed towards China.
Lange believes that the Chinese leadership is “astonished” at the fact that Russia is unable to assert itself. That being said, he added that Beijing did not interpret the events in Ukraine as a reason to abstain from potential actions towards Taiwan. Instead, they recognised the need to carry out any such action with greater precision and efficiency than what they perceived as “amateurish” in Russia’s approach.
China considers itself to be militarily superior to Russia, and this should also be taken seriously, Lange noted. As China closely watches the developments in Ukraine, they are aware of the emergence of new forms of warfare heavily reliant on data and artillery. According to Lange, Beijing intends to learn from these developments and apply these lessons to enhance its own strategic capabilities.
In light of these observations, Lange believes that the West would be well advised to take note and assess its own approach to deter China effectively in the future.
According to Lange, deterrence measures have seen some success with regard to the war in Ukraine. China, while having strategic ties with Russia, currently refrains from overt military support due to the high costs involved. Russian President Vladimir Putin may have miscalculated China’s stance, hoping for more significant backing, Lange explained.
Despite differing strategic interests, the EU maintains significant economic ties with China, making complete economic detachment impractical. Nevertheless, there is a growing recognition of the need to reduce dependence on China for critical technologies.
As the EU relies on imports for various goods, efforts should focus on diversifying sourcing options to avoid vulnerability to potential coercion, Lange stressed, adding that preserving political agency in dealings with China remains a crucial aspect of future considerations.
Europe must develop the capacity to shape the world politically
As the world witnesses increasing complexities in security policy, the notion of comfort and calm has become a thing of the past, Lange cautioned. “And we should not assume that there is anything we can do that would bring that comfort back,” he added.
Instead, Lange stressed that Europe must strive to build the ambition and capabilities to shape the world politically, not merely reacting to the actions of other global actors:
“The big underlying problem is that others do something and […] that we Europeans do not have sufficient capacity to act ourselves. We only ever react to things, but we have too little ambition and too little clarity about how we actually want to shape the world ourselves. That should actually be the next step, not just to ward off these changes in the world or to react to them, but to actively help shape them”, Lange concluded.
*Nico Lange has master’s degrees in political science, communication science, and computer science. His experience includes serving as Chief of the ‘Leitungsstab’ in the German Ministry of Defence from 2019 to 2022. Since 2022, he has been contributing at the Munich Security Conference’s Zeitenwende Initiative as a Senior Fellow.
