JAKARTA (The Straits Times/ANN): The regional summit of South-East Asian leaders concluded on Thursday with some strides made towards tackling the Myanmar crisis, little progress on the South China Sea territorial dispute and a whopping US$38 billion (S$52 billion) worth of deals in the bag, analysts say.
Expectations were high that Indonesia – chair of Asean in 2023 – would make breakthroughs in resolving the Myanmar conflict, given its vocal criticisms against the atrocities committed there after a military coup in 2021 wrested power from the democratically elected government.
Indonesia is also a founding member of the 10-nation grouping, and the biggest.
“However, considering Indonesia’s ambition and its actual achievements, there may be some disappointment,” Ms Joanne Lin, co-coordinator at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s Asean Studies Centre, told The Straits Times.
“Little progress has been made on the Myanmar front except for yet another Asean leaders’ review and decision on the five-point consensus.”
At the summit, Asean leaders reviewed the implementation of the peace plan adopted in 2021 and maintained it will be the main reference in ending the crisis. The consensus calls for a dialogue among all parties, an immediate halt to violence in Myanmar, the appointment of an Asean special envoy to facilitate mediation, humanitarian assistance, and a visit by an Asean delegation to Myanmar to meet all concerned parties.
However, unlike previous occasions, they had mentioned the country’s armed forces “in particular” have to end hostilities.
They also agreed to have the Philippines replace Myanmar as Asean chair in 2026 under an annual rotating system among the 10 member states in alphabetical order. This rotation arrangement will not change until a decision is made to do so.
Another notable outcome is an informal “troika” approach to Asean’s special envoy on Myanmar, where the presiding Asean chairman will be supported by the immediate past and incoming chairs for continuity, given that the situation in Myanmar is unlikely to change in a one-year timeframe.
This means 2024’s chair Laos will have to coordinate with Indonesia as well as Malaysia, which is 2025’s chair.
Dr Lina Alexandra, who heads the Department of International Relations at Jakarta’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the stronger statements by the grouping demonstrated its solidarity and should be appreciated.
She also lauded the 145 engagements with various stakeholders in Myanmar that Indonesia carried out during its chairmanship – which previous chairs had not done.
The question now lies in how these efforts will translate into a concrete plan for implementation with effective outcomes, said Dr Lina. “All these should be appreciated as a starting point, good initiatives that have accommodated a lot of concerns from Myanmar observers.
“But it is just the beginning. Will this be a basis to constitutionalise the Office of Special Envoy… Will there be a road map or an implementation plan? There must be concrete work and results, not just a mechanism,” she said.
Ms Lin noted that the troika arrangement will allow Laos to gain insights from Indonesia which will then be passed on to Malaysia.
Sharing experiences on engagements with the military government and other stakeholders in Myanmar will ensure that new chairs are equipped to take on the task of tackling the crisis, she said.
“It is important that each new chair does not pursue its own initiatives in a siloed manner, otherwise Asean will not be seen as being a credible and united grouping,” she added.
Besides the Myanmar crisis, Asean is currently working on negotiating the code of conduct (COC), a legally binding rule book to govern the South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest waterways that is also the site of overlapping claims by China, Taiwan and four Asean states – Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
On Aug 28, about a week before the Asean Summit, China sprang a fresh surprise by releasing a new standard map claiming sovereignty in an even bigger area, which includes the waters off South-east Asian nations’ coasts as well as part of the north-east of India.
While the claim triggered objections from India, Malaysia, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam, Asean had been muted on the issue.
“It is really difficult to understand China’s move regarding the map shortly before the Asean and Asean-related summits,” Dr Rizal Sukma, a CSIS senior fellow, told ST.
“The move clearly does not contribute to the conducive condition for productive COC negotiation. So the COC negotiation is going to be even tougher down the road,” he added.
China and Asean have been each other’s top trading partners in the last three years, and proximity to China and fast-growing economies in South-east Asia have made the region one of the top destinations for Chinese aid and investment in infrastructure through the Belt and Road Initiative, among other things.
Dr Rizal noted that Asean as a collective entity “is getting weak vis-a-vis China”, adding: “Worse, I am not sure if Asean has a collective view on how to respond to this problem. This, if it continues, will make a mockery of Asean self-proclaimed centrality.”
Beyond the complex issues of Myanmar and the South China Sea, analysts say Asean has had several accomplishments in areas such as the digital economy, gender equality and family development, and food security.
One significant achievement is the Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), an initiative by Indonesia, which lays out the grouping’s common position on regional cooperation, security and prosperity as well as its stance on not taking sides with any major powers competing for influence in the region.
During an Asean-Indo-Pacific forum during the summit, more than 90 projects amounting to more than US$38 billion were identified in the areas of green infrastructure and resilient supply chains, sustainable and innovative financing, and inclusive digital transformation, said Ms Lin.
She added: “Indonesia’s efforts to mainstream and implement the AOIP has brought together dialogue partners and other external parties to support Asean’s leading role in the regional architecture through concrete cooperation.”
Said Dr Rizal: “Indonesia has done a very decent job as the chair, considering the difficult circumstances…
“Now, let’s see if Asean can put all those positive achievements into practice.” – The New Straits Times/ANN
