Written by Patricia Elnakhal, H.K. Wind and Fengze Strategy.
Image credit: Public domain.
In February 2022, Russian military forces crossed the Ukrainian border conducting a “special military operation,” which marked the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Until now, the war has not progressed significantly, and the outcome is undetermined. The war’s development is beyond the public’s expectations and political decision-makers like President V. Putin. For Ukraine, based on military and economic powers, it could be difficult to fight alone against Russia. Searching for external support from the international community helped Ukraine not only receive sufficient supplies and prevent it from being surrounded but also started to dominate this war by launching intense counterattacks. Until now, Ukraine has marched forward more than 100 square kilometres into the occupied area and liberated eight villages and towns from Russia. Before they explode into disasters, escalated conflicts could be alleviated through a relative and dynamic balance of mutual powers. If there is a widening gap between two powers, external input makes the balance possible but requires a sufficiently strong connection on multi-dimensions in advance.
Currently, the controllable intensity on the Taiwan Strait can potentially escalate. The growing frequency of analogous cases that several military aircraft from the mainland flying into the island’s air defence zone cause the intensity on this territory, while the situation is still under control because these actions are mainly for strategic purposes. More importantly, none of the powers is fully prepared for uncontrollable collisions, but the situation’s development indeed keeps invisibly escalating. As a lesson from the Ukraine war, Taiwan has to construct an unbroken and heavy rope connecting itself to the international community to prepare well earlier for various possibilities. The connection between Taiwan and the international community could be observed through two main aspects: the diplomatic interactions connecting to international politics and the economic development connecting to the international market.
For the first aspect, diplomatic interactions could be seen through the responses towards international occurrences and diplomatic visits. Since 2016, Taiwan’s responses towards international occurrences have become increasingly direct, clear, and quick. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan donated over 50 million masks to more than 80 countries and conveyed the “Taiwan Can Help” image to the international community. In February 2023, Taiwanese donations for people affected by the devastating earthquake in Turkey exceeded 30 million US dollars. Since the Russo-Ukrainian war exploded, Taiwan has donated over 60 million euros for humanitarian commitments and other materials to Ukraine.
[HMeanwhile, the main statements from the central government in solidarity with Ukraine are briefly shown in Table 1. Besides, Taiwan participates in the sanctions on exporting technical equipment and chemical products towards Russia. These responses not only reflect the strong willingness of Taiwan to share sources and take responsibility for helping other nations in need and contributing to the international community but also deliver a message from Taiwan that it shares common values with the international community.
Moreover, since 2021, the number of diplomatic visits has increased. Taking the number of visits of executive representatives from the European Union as an example, they were 1 in 2021 and 5 in 2022, respectively, and till July 2023, there were already three visits. Recently, after visiting Poland and the Czech Republic, Foreign Minister Joseph Wu met with members of the European Parliament in Brussels, including its Vice President Nicola Beer. The increasingly frequent visits indicate the growing recognition from the international community towards Taiwan. These series of diplomatic interactions also show the great political desire of Taiwan to be connected to the international community and to be treated similarly to other members.
Table 1 Main statements from the Taiwanese central government
o On 22 February 2022, the government condemned Russia’s decision to recognise the “Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics” in eastern Ukraine as sovereign and independent states.
o On 25 February 2022, the government strongly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in violation of the UN Charter, joining international economic sanctions against Russia.
o On 11 October 2022, the government strongly condemned Russian airstrikes, which have caused innocent civilian casualties in Ukraine.
o On 16 November 2022, the government condemned using military force to attack Ukraine and Poland and called for the immediate cessation of hostilities.
(Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ROC)
For the second aspect, the connection to the international market could be seen through the development of trade (Figure 1). Generally, with the upward trend of imports, exports also show an increasing tendency, which indicates the increasingly high competitiveness of Taiwanese products and services in the international market. For periodic exports and imports, the relatively stable standard deviations indicate their relative stabilities and the small differences between means and medians probably tell their potentially symmetric probability distributions. The Taiwanese economy is export-oriented, meaning Taiwan imports mainly from raw materials to support its export industries. This could be seen through the highly positive correlation coefficient between exports and imports that is larger than 0.9. In other words, the Taiwanese economy is highly dependent on the international market, influenced by international trade policies and measures to some great extent.
Meanwhile, such dependence is relatively stable, which could be taken as an indicator of business relations between Taiwan and the main powers in the international market. For example, due to the international demand decline triggered by the global recession in 2009 and the manufacturing obstacles triggered by the CHIPS and Science Act signed in August 2022, exports and imports show a temporary tendency with a proportional decrease. In addition, the monthly exports from Taiwan to the United States and Europe since 2020 show strong correlation coefficients of 0.955 and 0.889, respectively, to the monthly total exports. The given correlations towards main powers in the international market tell the economic dependence of Taiwan towards the international market but with different dependencies. These results indicate the strong connection between the Taiwanese economy and the international market.
Figure 1 Taiwanese imports and exports
(Source: Ministry of Finance, ROC)
A lesson from the Ukraine war for Taiwan is the connection with the international community. First, the connection to the international community could help Taiwan obtain multidimensional support when needed and increase the possibility to achieve its pursues. Secondly, if the unbroken and heavy rope connecting Taiwan to the international community could be constructed much earlier and quicker, the conflicts could be greatly alleviated in the short term, and thereby, both Taiwan and its allies could be fully well-prepared before the worst situation. It is vital not to be strategically overwhelmed at the beginning stage of conflicts out of control. This multidimensional connection should be from diplomacy to economy, technology to military, public to academic, etc. The constructed connection should be constantly consolidated through common benefits and actively expanded to the higher-dimensional connection towards core benefits through established trusts and dynamic demands. Taiwan has been aware of the significance of this strategy, and its connection to the international community is increasingly strengthened. However, maintaining or strengthening such connections requires high costs and encounters challenges, especially when the economy shows a slowdown or decline, and the internal politics is unstable. Therefore, such a connection is constantly being consolidated and simultaneously being challenged.
Patricia Elnakhal is a master’s student at Ruhr-University Bochum in International Political Economy of East Asia. HK Wind is an analyst in Fengze Strategy. Fengze Strategy studies the politics and economy, analyses the stabilities and risks and helps the public understand East Asia.