On January 13, the people of Taiwan, officially designated the Republic of China (ROC), will elect a new president and unicameral legislature known as the Legislative Yuan. The election hinges on the question of Taiwan’s policy toward the mainland, the People’s Republic of China (PRC). That policy will have a profound impact on East Asia – and the world.
The major threat to peace in the area is a move by Taiwan to break with the one-China policy and declare independence from the mainland. The PRC’s policy is to reunite with Taiwan by peaceful means some time in the future – barring a formal declaration of independence by Taiwan, which could well lead to war.
Taiwanese opinion on secession
How do the people of Taiwan feel about secession versus the status quo?
In 2023 polling by Taiwan’s National Chengchi University’s Election Study, a record 32.1% said they preferred to “maintain the status quo indefinitely” (the largest category); 28.6% chose the status quo to “decide [Taiwan’s fate] at a later date” (the second-largest category); 21.4% opted for the status quo with a view to “move toward independence”; and 6.0% the status quo with a view to “move to unification.”
So a total of 88.1% favor the status quo for now, and 60.7% (the top two categories) want to maintain the status quo with no specific goal for the future. In contrast, only 1.6% want “unification as soon as possible” and only 4.5% “independence as soon as possible.”
On this issue, then, the US has failed to win the hearts and minds of Taiwanese.
Sources: Election Study Center, National Chengchi University
Presidential polling so far
Three main parties contending for the presidency are the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the Kuomintang (KMT), and the relatively new Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). The presidential candidates are Lai Ching-te (DPP), Hou Yu-ih (KMT), and Ko Wen-je (TPP).
While the leaders of the DPP are bent on independence, hostile to the PRC and very close to the US foreign-policy elite, the other two seek to develop understanding with the mainland and preserve the status quo.
What does polling about the election tell us? The DPP is the frontrunner now but by an ever decreasing margin. A very recent poll on January 2 gave the DPP’s Lai 38.9%, the KMT’s Hou 35.8% and the TPP’s Ko 22.4%. The combined vote for the mainland-friendly parties, the KMT and TPP, was 58.2%. But that’s not the end of the story.
In Taiwan’s system, victory requires only a plurality. Consequently, as a result of the opposition’s split between the KMT and TPP, the front-running DPP could win. Nevertheless, the opposition should easily command a majority in the Legislative Yuan, providing some brakes on the DPP.
Turning to US opinion on possible armed conflict in Taiwan, the latest of surveys by the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs tells us: “As in past surveys, a majority of Americans (56%) oppose sending US troops to Taiwan to help the Taiwanese government …” (italics added by author).
That percentage would surely increase as the war drags on, as has happened with the Ukraine proxy war. Sentiment against more US funding for Ukraine is growing in Congress, especially among Republicans, a reflection of growing anti-interventionist sentiment in their base.
How does the American political class feel about foreigners who die for the goals of the US? Here are the widely quoted words of the minority leader of the US Senate, Mitch McConnell: “No Americans are getting killed in Ukraine. We’re rebuilding our industrial base [for producing weapons]. The Ukrainians are destroying the army of one of our biggest rivals. I have a hard time finding anything wrong with that [italics added].”
He does not mention the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who are being sacrificed to “weaken” Russia, to use the phrase of the US secretary of defense. This disregard for human life is cruel and barbaric in the extreme.
A US anti-China proxy war?
As with Ukraine, a proxy war in Taiwan would be waged with “our bullets, their blood,” in the words of one Oliver North. In fact, the DPP government has already made a decisive step in the direction of turning young Taiwanese into US cannon fodder by extending the period of compulsory military service from four months to one year, beginning in 2024. That is the “blood” part.
As for the “bullets” part, Taiwan has been buying billions of dollars’ worth of weapons from the US since 1979. Recently the Joe Biden administration began giving weapons to Taiwan, meaning American taxes pay for them. That is on top of the enormous expenditure on US bases, naval exercises and “freedom of navigation” maneuvers.
If fighting erupts and the expenditures grow, how long before America tires of paying and wants to opt out? After all, the US is safely on the other side of the vast Pacific.
The basic US plan seems to be to provoke the PRC into military action to harm its reputation in the eyes of its neighbors, encouraging the Chinese to build up their military and join US-led anti-China alliances.
If that does not occur, the US will not shrink from a false-flag operation or outright fabrication. Think of the fictitious Gulf of Tonkin incident that won congressional approval for the Vietnam War that consumed millions of lives.
On December 13, the people of Taiwan can take a big step to a peaceful future. If they vote for a government not captive to belligerent US foreign policy, many of us in America will be grateful.
And perhaps their vote will inspire us to elect more anti-interventionists here in the US.
