Voters in Taiwan will vote for a new President on January 13 next year. The outcome of the election is likely to influence Taiwan’s relationship with China, which regards the island as one of its provinces. In recent years, China has intensified efforts to assert these territorial claims, and threatened to use military force to subjugate Taiwan if necessary. As a result, candidates in the election have addressed matters of security.
Hou Yu-ih, candidate of the more China-leaning Kuomintang (KMT) party, has said that a vote for the China-sceptic Democratic People’s Party (DPP) would be equivalent to “sending everyone out to the battlefield” [against China].
On the other hand, outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the DPP, said last week, “Does anyone want war? Nobody does… Look at Hong Kong and think of Taiwan. We don’t want Hong Kong-style peace. We want dignified peace.”
The President has served for two consecutive terms since 2016, and is now ineligible to run under Taiwan’s election rules. Her party has nominated Taiwan’s Vice-President Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, as its candidate. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin has said: “Whatever high-sounding rhetoric Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities try to use, it cannot cover up their malicious attempt to tie Taiwan residents to the war chariot of ‘Taiwan independence’.”
But what do the people of Taiwan think?
First, a recap of Taiwan-China ties.
In the dying years of the 19th century, Taiwan had come under Japanese control. Following the 1911 Xinhai Revolution and the Qing dynasty’s end, the Republic of China (ROC) was proclaimed on the mainland. In 1927, civil war broke out in China between the Kuomintang-led government of the ROC and the communist forces. There was a lull during World War II, but following the defeat of Japan in 1945, the civil war flared up again.
In 1949, the communists took control of the mainland and proclaimed the People’s Republic. The KMT leadership and cadres fled to the island of Taiwan, where they declared the Republic of China.
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Prof Pan said the suppression of Hong Kong resonates strongly in the minds of the Taiwanese people, alongside other issues such as human rights allegations in Xinjiang and Tibet, military threats, flybys near Taiwan, and China’s assertive wolf warrior diplomacy. All these factors contributed to the sliding of positive views of China, she said: “Distrust is a natural result.”
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How do the Taiwanese view the US, and the question of independence?
Around 91 per cent of people said they preferred the status quo, rather than either unification with China or a move towards independence. This outcome too, is consistent with the outcomes of other surveys.
“Status quo is a red line drawn by the United States and China to sustain regional stability. A majority of Taiwanese support it because they would like to keep democracy and peace at the same time, or at the very least, peace,” Prof Hsin-Hsin Pan said.
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While the US is seen as a partner that can lend military support, on some other issues, there is apprehension: 33.9 per cent of the people in the survey agreed that it was a trustworthy country, while 55.3 per cent disagreed.
According to the researchers, this has to do in part with the situation in Ukraine. “Taiwanese see what might have happened to us by referencing what the US government has done to Ukraine, a frontline to a legacy rival to the US (Russia). The US government does not send troops to help defend Ukraine,” Prof Pan said. However, nearly 60 per cent of people still deem the US security commitment as credible.
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