TOKYO —
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen said Wednesday that the government’s position on “maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is very firm,” as the island marked the 65th anniversary of the start of the second Taiwan Strait crisis.
The crisis marked the last time that Taiwanese and Chinese forces engaged in direct large-scale combat.
“We must thus continue to implement national defense reforms, promote defense self-sufficiency, and continuously improve the combat power and resilience of national defense,” President Tsai added.
China drills
Chinese fighter jets and warships once again encircled Taiwan on Saturday, as Beijing launched its latest military drills around the contested island. The state-run Xinhua news agency said the exercises were carried out to test the Chinese military’s ability “to seize control of air and sea spaces” and fight “in real combat conditions.” The exercises were seen as a response to a visit to Washington August 12 by Taiwan’s vice president, William Lai.
Over the past year, China has dramatically increased military activity around Taiwan, which Beijing sees as part of its territory, prompting the United States and its allies to strengthen their military partnerships in the region.
The U.S., Japan and South Korea agreed to deepen military cooperation and condemned China’s “dangerous and aggressive behavior” following a trilateral summit August 18 at the U.S. presidential retreat at Camp David, Maryland.
Beijing readiness
Just how ready is Beijing to go to war?
“China is serious about taking Taiwan,” said Grant Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine colonel and former Japan-based diplomat who is now with the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University.
“They have put the pieces in place. We’ve seen them testing that over the last year and a half or so. They’ve gotten the missiles, the cyber, the electronic. They’ve got their ships and aircraft out and about, and the last piece that I think we’re going to see this fall is the rehearsal for a landing exercise,” he told VOA.
Risks
Beijing recognizes the risks involved in any military operation, argues Christopher Johnstone of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“An amphibious operation across 100 miles of ocean against an island that is pretty well fortified and has pretty inhospitable terrain — that remains a high-risk endeavor. And so I think the leadership in Beijing is very aware of it. I do think that they are focused on other tools of coercion, other forms of military pressure, disinformation, efforts to influence the politics on Taiwan,” Johnstone told VOA.
“Make no mistake, the Chinese will use force if they feel they must. I do believe that it remains an unlikely scenario, at least for now,” he added.
Strategic ambiguity
Washington has a long-held policy of “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would intervene militarily over Taiwan. However, the U.S. and its regional allies are enhancing military cooperation in response to China’s actions around Taiwan and in the South China Sea.
Japan is central to the United States’ defense posture in the Indo-Pacific, says analyst Johnstone.
“From a military perspective, it starts with the fact that Japan is host to 50,000 American troops. Some of the most important capabilities the United States has forward deployed in the region are based in Japan. Japan is where the United States projects power from in the Indo Pacific.”
Alliance coordination
However, the alliance needs better coordination, argues Newsham, who served as the first U.S. Marine liaison officer to the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force. “There is no joint headquarters between the Americans and the Japanese, and that’s after 60-plus years of a defense alliance. So that is baffling. It needs to be addressed quickly,” Newsham said.
The U.S. Congress is currently debating reform of the military command structure in Japan to facilitate better coordination with Japanese forces as part of the 2024 U.S. National Defense Authorization Act.
Japan defense spending
Meanwhile, Japan last year announced a near-doubling of its defense spending by 2027.
“Japan is building up its capabilities, but it hasn’t gone about it in really a very systematic, well thought out way,” Newsham added. “But once they get that right, then it will be a formidable force. It does depend on a very close operational relationship with the Americans. When you combine the Americans and the Japanese, that is a huge problem from China’s perspective.”
The alliance is changing as Japan builds up its military capabilities, says analyst Johnstone.
“Increasingly, Japan is an important military power on its own accord, both in the kinds of capabilities that it has — it has F-35 fighters, for example, an exceptionally modern and capable navy, strong missile defense capabilities. And now as they embark on a new national defense strategy, investing in capabilities like long-range strike missiles,” he said.
Public support
Polls show growing public support for increased defense spending in Japan since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“I think it was the war in Ukraine that really drove home for the Japanese public that major war remains possible in the 21st century, as shocking as that is. And that Japan needs to be prepared to do more to protect itself,” Johnstone said.
Tokyo residents who spoke to VOA supported the increase in defense spending.
“Ours is an island nation. We need missiles and fighter jets. We need to put more effort into this,” said office worker Ryuichi Kuriagawa.
Tokyo resident Shizuka Nishizawa said Japan needs to invest in defense in an uncertain world.
“Although Japan has its own self-defense forces, it cannot protect its own country from an attack from the outside. Who knows what might happen? There is the issue of the war in Ukraine, so no one can predict how it will turn out or how the world will change,” she told VOA.
