Weak support in the Taiwanese legislature and among the island’s young voters for president-elect William Lai Ching-te has raised hopes in Beijing of improved cross-strait relations over the next four years, according to analysts in mainland China.
Lai, from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), would be “the weakest president” in almost two decades, with any effort to promote an independence agenda likely to be challenged and contained, both at home and outside, they said.
While Lai defeated Hou Yu-ih, from the main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), and Ko Wen-je, representing the smaller Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), he gained just over 40 per cent of the vote in last Saturday’s critical election.
The result was the second-lowest share of the vote for an elected president since 1996 and marked a sharp loss of 2.58 million supporters for the DPP compared with four years ago. The party also lost its majority in the legislative elections held on the same day.
Shanghai Institute of Taiwan Studies director Ni Yongjie said 60 per cent of voters wanted to remove the DPP from power “and the future focus of Taiwan’s politics will be in the legislature after the DPP had suffered heavy losses there”.
Taiwan election: Lai’s victory risks further tensions with Beijing
Taiwan election: Lai’s victory risks further tensions with Beijing
“Lai only kept the [DPP’s] base after his party had tried all the measures to divide his opponents … It also proves that the DPP was not united and Lai himself lacked political power within his party,” he said.
Ni also noted the “better than expected” 26.5 per cent of voter share that went to Ko, the minor party candidate whose campaign was most popular among the island’s younger voters.
Beijing regards Lai, the current vice-president, as a “stubborn” promoter of independence for the self-ruled island and has also sanctioned his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, the former Taiwanese representative to the US.
Beijing clearly favoured a victory for the KMT. Another acceptable alternative – a joint ticket between the pro-Beijing nationalist party and the TPP, with its moderate cross-strait policies – failed when the parties could not agree on the partnership’s details.
But while Lai’s victory could pose a setback for Beijing’s goal of unifying the self-ruled island with the mainland, analysts say the checks and balances of the opposition parties in the new legislature will become a headache for the next president.
Neither the DPP nor the KMT won control of the 113-seat legislature – the ruling party retained just 51 of its previous 61 seats and the KMT added 14 to bring its total to 52 – but the TPP won a historic eight seats.
The achievement could make the TPP a key force in the control and direction of the new legislature, a scenario that presented “hopes” and “opportunities” for Beijing, analysts said.
According to Ni, there is still a chance that the KMT and TPP could cooperate, but “it is more likely” the predominantly pro-DPP lawmakers from the minor party will favour the DPP’s agendas and policies.
Zhu Songling, a Taiwan affairs specialist with Beijing Union University, said Lai’s vote share showed “dissatisfaction” with the DPP’s rule of the past eight years among Taiwanese, especially young people.
He noted that many of those who supported outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen in 2020 switched to Ko on Saturday, while the pro-Beijing Hou achieved just 33.4 per cent of the vote.
According to Zhu, the result showed voters’ “clear hatred towards the KMT’s tradition of dogmatism” as they abandoned the ballot altogether or chose Ko instead.
3 days before Taiwan vote, Beijing offers details on cross-strait ‘model zone’
3 days before Taiwan vote, Beijing offers details on cross-strait ‘model zone’
Zhu said he expected the TPP to strike a “careful balance” between the two major parties and mostly insist on promoting the political reforms it proposed during the election campaign.
Beijing is deeply distrustful of Lai, despite his repeated assurances during the campaign that he would follow Tsai’s policy of maintaining the status quo and not declare independence. In his victory speech, Lai said he would pursue a “steady” approach for the next four years.
“Lai is more radical than Tsai, but he does not have [her] political power, [because of] his low vote rate and his party’s loss of control of the legislature,” said a Taiwan affairs specialist who is also a former official from Beijing.
“It is not that Lai does not want to pursue Taiwan independence, but he would be restricted if he intends to,” said the former official, who asked not to be identified.
“Cross-strait relations will surely be unstable after he comes into power because he will play his show, in cooperating with the US, to attack the mainland and take de-Sinofication actions.”
On the other hand, Lai might have to walk back his previous rhetoric in the face of Taiwanese public opinion and the legislature, as well as Washington, who would not welcome another “troublemaker”, the former official added.
Like most countries, the United States does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but Washington is opposed to any unilateral change to the status quo, known as the one-China principle.
US President Joe Biden said after the election that the US did not support independence for the island, and a delegation of former American officials arrived in Taipei on Sunday to reinforce Washington’s message.
US group urges Taiwan’s Lai to keep calm and carry on with cross-strait status quo
US group urges Taiwan’s Lai to keep calm and carry on with cross-strait status quo
The delegation – led by former national security adviser Stephen Hadley and James Steinberg, previously a deputy secretary of state – congratulated Taiwan on its successful election.
But the former officials also stressed Washington’s “insistence on … exclusively peaceful means to address cross-strait issues, the importance of dialogue, and the avoidance of unilateral efforts to change the status quo”, according to Steinberg.
“The [purpose of the] US delegation was to warn Lai not to mess things up,” said the Beijing former official, whose assessment was echoed by Ni. The US was “deeply concerned” about Lai’s stance and would “strictly restrict” his actions, Ni said.
In Ni’s view, cross-strait relations will be “highly strained” over the next four years, but he expects Beijing to continue its “two-pronged strategy” – a mix of carrots and sticks that also takes a “targeted” approach to independence advocates and Taiwan’s external supporters.
Beijing continued to exert the “sticks” of military, economic and international pressure on the island before and after the elections, while offering the “carrot” of a proposed joint-development zone with Taiwan in the mainland coastal province of Fujian.
“The opportunities and challenges exist at the same time,” Ni said. “Another work direction [for Beijing] is towards Taiwan’s young generation, who hate the DPP and care about their living environment and developing opportunities,” he added.
The TPP, buoyed by its young support base, has already declared that it intends to fight for Taiwan’s next presidential election.
But the unnamed Beijing analyst warned that the island’s young people had a “complex” view of the mainland.
Having lived with “democracy and freedom” since they were born, the next generation might not favour Beijing’s one-China policy and turn a blind eye towards its unification agenda, he said.
