New York, Sept. 11 (CNA) U.S. Republican House Representative Mike Gallagher said Monday it was “equally as plausible” economic turbulence increases the chances of China invading Taiwan, following a claim from U.S. President Joe Biden that financial woes had left Beijing with “its hands full.”
Speaking at a Council on Foreign Relations event in New York, Gallagher, chair of the House Select Committee on China, said serious economic and demographic issues could see Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) become less predictable and do something “stupid.”
Describing his “working hypothesis” as revolving around the idea of a “window of maximum danger,” Gallagher said that he thought this “window will kick off in earnest after the Taiwanese [presidential] election in January,” particularly if Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德), the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, wins.
Gallagher’s assessment runs counter to comments made by Biden on Sunday, in which the U.S. president said he doubted China was capable of invading Taiwan as Xi had his “hands full” dealing with economic issues.
“I don’t think it [China’s economy] is going to cause China to invade Taiwan – matter of fact, the opposite. [Beijing] probably doesn’t have the same capacity as it had before,” Biden, who is currently visiting Vietnam, told reporters at a press conference in Hanoi.
However, Gallagher said it was “equally as plausible” that serious economic and demographic issues could see Xi become more willing to take risks.
According to Gallagher, Xi has mentioned the Korean War in many of his recent speeches, and the U.S. congressman argued that a “cult” had developed around the 1950-1953 conflict.
“This was, in their opinion, a time when they stood up to the technologically superior Americans and they won on the battlefield,” Gallagher said.
“There’s something going on here that we need to take seriously,” Gallagher added.
Gallagher said China was determined to become a neighborhood “hegemon” by dividing the U.S.-led alliance in the region and “taking over Taiwan.”
Citing Russia’s war against Ukraine as an example, Gallagher said the proclamations of dictators should be prepared for instead of discounted. Xi had reiterated a refusal to rule out the use of force against Taiwan at the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress in October 2022.
Gallagher said Taiwan’s election on Jan. 13, 2024 could heighten the risk of war, particularly if the independence-leaning DPP wins.
Other variables influencing the risk of war include upcoming defense bills in the U.S. that would shrink the country’s Navy to 280 ships by 2027, when China could potentially invade Taiwan, Gallagher added.
Gallagher said the U.S.’s near-term goal with China was to achieve “deterrence by denial,” adding that conflict in the Taiwan Strait could lead to disastrous results.
In the medium term, Gallagher said the U.S. and its allies aimed to cement their lead in critical technologies, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, while in the long run, Washington would seek to maintain the international primacy of the U.S.
“A world in which America is the dominant superpower is a more peaceful and just world,” Gallagher claimed.
