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Topline
Adm. John Aquilino, head of the Indo-Pacific Command, said Wednesday he believes China’s military will be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027, meeting a goal U.S. military officials believe Chinese President Xi Jinping set to reunite Taiwan with China’s mainland with force if necessary.
Key Facts
Aquilino, who testified to the GOP-led House Armed Services Committee, said “all indications point to” the People’s Liberation Army meeting Xi’s alleged goal of potentially invading Taiwan by 2027.
Since 2020, the PLA has added more than 400 fighter aircraft and 20 major warships while doubling its ballistics and cruise missiles, according to Aquilino, who said China had increased spending by 16% to more than $223 billion
China’s military has been simulating operations it would carry out against Taiwan in recent years, Aquilino said, including maritime and air blockades.
Contra
Avril Haines, the Director of National Intelligence, told the bipartisan House Intelligence Committee last year that it was “not our assessment that China wants to go to war.” Yun Sun, a director at the Stimson Center, a U.S.-based think tank, told the Guardian she believed “military readiness” wouldn’t prompt China to attack. Xi also told Biden last year that he has not set a time table for reuniting Taiwan with China, according to NBC News, citing anonymous sources with knowledge of the discussions.
Tangent
Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s foreign minister, said last year Taiwan was “taking the Chinese military threat very seriously,” adding he believed “2027 is the year that we need to be serious about.” Maj. Kyle Amonson and retired Capt. Dane Egli wrote last year they also believed China would be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027 if reunification wasn’t achieved peacefully. They said Xi will likely “take steps” to reunify Taiwan with China’s mainland government by 2030.
Key Background
The U.S. and other allies have prepared for a potential military conflict between Taiwan and China in recent years. Taiwan is a self-governing island that holds direct presidential elections, though China’s government believes Taiwan is a “sacred and inseparable part” of Chinese territory. Relations between China and the U.S. have soured in recent years amid growing communications between the U.S. and Taiwan. In 2016, then-President Donald Trump spoke with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen, the first conversation between U.S. and Taiwan leaders since 1979, according to Reuters. President Joe Biden suggested in 2022 the U.S. military would defend Taiwan if the island were invaded by China, though he indicated earlier this year the U.S. would not support Taiwan’s independence.
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