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A top United States admiral has said Chinese leadership has directed the military to prepare for Taiwan’s invasion by 2027.
“All indications point to the [People’s Liberation Army] meeting President Xi Jinping‘s directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027,” Admiral John Aquilino, Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said in prepared testimony to U.S. Armed Services Committee on Wednesday.
“Although the [People’s Republic of China] claims it prefers to achieve unification through peaceful means, Xi will not renounce the use of force,” Aquilino added.
Admiral Aquilino, who was in charge of the Indo-Pacific Command for three years, is set to retire. His departure comes at a critical time when China is challenging the U.S. traditional hub and spoke system of alliances in Asia.
The rapid modernization of the Chinese military under Xi has been at the heart of speculation about the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland by using force.
The People’s Republic of China considers Taiwan to be part of its historical territory, even though Beijing hasn’t directly ruled the self-governed island since the Chinese Communist Party took control of the Chinese mainland in 1949.
“In the three years since I took command, the PLA has added over 400 fighter aircraft, more than 20 major warships, and has more than doubled its inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles,” Aquilino said.
Despite China’s growing military might and destabilizing actions in the region, Aquilino stressed that conflict in the Indo-Pacific is neither imminent nor inevitable, underscoring the complex interplay between military preparedness, strategic intentions, and regional geopolitical dynamics.
Jeff Liu, the spokesperson of Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Newsweek: “Regarding the speculation that China may attack Taiwan in 2027, there are different speculations and interpretations. However, we can’t predict when China will launch a war, but we must make all preparations. The most important thing is to strengthen our own defense capabilities as an effective deterrent to China’s use of force.”
Despite the worrying signs, the U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Xi hasn’t yet set a deadline for invasion in 2027 or another year.
“We do know, as has been made public, that President Xi has instructed the PLA, the Chinese military leadership, to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan, but that doesn’t mean that he’s decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well,” Central Intelligence Agency Chief Nicholas Burns told CBS News last year.
Even some U.S. military officials have raised doubts about Xi’s plans to invade Taiwan in the immediate future.
Admiral John Aquilino speaks at the Pentagon on June 30, 2016. China will be ready to invade Taiwan in three years, Aquilino said on Wednesday.
Admiral John Aquilino speaks at the Pentagon on June 30, 2016. China will be ready to invade Taiwan in three years, Aquilino said on Wednesday.
SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty
“I do think that Xi Jinping doesn’t necessarily want to take Taiwan by force,” Charles Q. Brown Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters in Tokyo on November 10, 2023.
But despite Xi not expressing a clear intention to invade, the Chinese military’s coercive tactics around Taiwan have sought to limit Taipei’s options.
“The well-documented, multidomain operation established a new, more dangerous status quo for PLA activity and posture around Taiwan, normalizing warship patrols around Taiwan and military flights crossing the Taiwan Strait centerline,” Aquilino added.
Meanwhile, Xi told President Joe Biden to stop arming Taiwan when the two leaders met in San Francisco last year.
“The U.S. side should take real actions to honor its commitment of not supporting ‘Taiwan independence,’ stop arming Taiwan, and support China’s peaceful reunification,” Xi told President Joe Biden during their meeting in California, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout.
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