TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Hardened aircraft shelters at China’s bases over the past decade suggest a Chinese invasion of Taiwan may not be imminent, according to a British weekly newspaper.
The Economist cited data Thursday (July 27) from Thomas Shugart, an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, on the number of shelters and runways at Chinese and U.S. air bases in East Asia. The report focused on the number and location of hardened aircraft shelters (HAS) built by China, Taiwan, and the U.S. within 1,500 km of the Taiwan Strait.
Shugart said China has increased its HAS from 297 to 677 since 2012, an increase of 380, while Taiwan has 306, and the U.S. has only 15 in the region. He said China has built seven new bases in the region in the past decade, and now has 82 airfields, compared to only 16 that the U.S. and its allies might use in a “Taiwan contingency.”
But The Economist argued that readers can “breathe easier” because in 2012, 70% of China’s fortified aircraft shelters were within 500 km of Taiwan, but only 9% of the new structures built since Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) took office are within that distance. It said China has built most of its new HAS along its borders and in its east and south regions.
It also said China has built new bases in these areas farther from Taiwan that do not have HAS, but have more runways that can hide aircraft. The report said the construction of many bases in different areas of China shows that it is preparing for various scenarios and not just a conflict with Taiwan.
The report acknowledged that Shugart’s survey may not be complete and did not include China’s underground bases. It said China may rely on its missiles to attack Taiwan instead of warplanes and think it has enough aircraft shelters near Taiwan.
Shugart also cautioned: “Don’t let the headline fool you tho — China’s airbase hardening may not be focused near TWN, but it’d be a major factor there.”
Excited to share this @TheEconomist article that was based on data I compiled on PRC vs US/partner airfield hardening efforts.
Don’t let the headline fool you tho – China’s airbase hardening may not be focused near TWN, but it’d be a major factor there.https://t.co/lTLXh7GB9u
— Tom Shugart (@tshugart3) July 27, 2023