All three candidates have adopted ambiguous positions on China policy, preferring to observe public sentiment before formulating their views to secure the most votes. But history suggests that either a DPP or KMT victory would likely see a continuation of each party’s existing policies.
Neither outcome is without risk. The DPP’s approach of strengthening Taiwan’s democracy, ties with the United States and self-defence capabilities may increase the likelihood of conflict, while the KMT’s pro-China stance does little to protect Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Although most polls show Lai ahead, followed by Ko and Hou, Lai’s assertive pro-independence stance risks backlash from Beijing as well.
Based on three important indicators — the probability of war, economic outlooks and the possibility of improving cross-Strait relations, Ko appears to be the most pragmatic choice for Taiwan’s next president. He may also be the easiest for China to swallow. The major question now is whether the non-progressive camp can consolidate.
Tech billionaire Terry Gou announced his intention to run as an independent candidate on Aug 28, though Gou still needs to gather about 300,000 voter signatures by Nov 2 to assure his candidacy. Despite Gou’s claim that his intention is to facilitate party alternation, both domestic and international media analyses unanimously suggest that Gou’s candidacy will ensure Lai’s victory in the election.
