Global Impact: as Taiwan heads to the polls, what does the island’s presidential election mean for cross-strait and US-China relations?
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In just one week, the hotly anticipated presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan will be finished, and the choice of the self-ruled island’s voters will finally be known.
Candidates of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Beijing-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) are vying for the top job, following years of strained cross-strait relations since Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning DPP was first elected president in 2016. Voters will also be electing a new legislative body.
The stakes are particularly high, as the crucial election on January 13 is poised to shape cross-strait relations as well as bilateral ties between mainland China and the United States.
The DPP candidate, Vice-President William Lai Ching-te, is currently ahead in the polls, ahead of KMT’s Hou Yu-ih and TPP’s Ko Wen-je. The KMT, though, has a slight lead in the polls for the 133 legislative seats.
In the lead-up to the widely watched election, presidential candidates have been scrambling to assure voters that they are the best choice to achieve cross-strait peace. Tensions have been high as Beijing has stepped up military, political and economic pressure on the self-ruled island, particularly over the past year.
They have also centred the issue in televised pitches to voters, with Hou calling on Lai to renounce his pro-independence stand, citing concerns over war, while Lai accused the KMT of creating an identity divide on the island with its embrace of the “one-China shrine”.
Beijing has warned of the risks of war if the DPP stays in power, and slammed “pro-independence forces” in Taiwan for sowing chaos in the Asia-Pacific region.
Mainland China has been flexing its muscles in that regard, with intensified military operations around the island and the suspension of tariff cuts in response to what it perceives as increased attempts to bolster separatist forces and solidify Taipei’s ties with Washington.
Who is running in Taiwan’s presidential race and what does it mean for Beijing?
Who is running in Taiwan’s presidential race and what does it mean for Beijing?
Major military drills were carried out after Tsai met then-US House speaker Kevin McCarthy during an April stop in California. In August, the People’s Liberation Army also staged drills in response to Lai’s layovers in New York and San Francisco.
Lai’s ticket with Hsiao Bi-Khim, Taiwan’s former de facto ambassador to the US, has been hailed by DPP lawmakers as a “perfect match” that has boosted the chance of victory.
KMT and TPP had aimed for a joint ticket to improve their chances to beat the DPP, but the deal collapsed in late November in a potential blow to Beijing, which has described Lai and Hsiao as dangerous “separatists” and “troublemakers”.
Efforts to build a KMT-TPP joint ticket were shepherded by former Taiwanese president and KMT head Ma Ying-jeou. Ma visited mainland China early last year, a historic first trip by a former or sitting Taiwanese leader.
Months before the elections, Beijing unveiled a sweeping guideline to turn Fujian province, located on the west coast of the Taiwan Strait, into a model zone for integration – a clear statement of intent for the continued advancement of what it terms “peaceful reunification”.
And in December, President Xi Jinping called cross-strait unification an “overall trend, a righteous cause, and the common aspiration of the people” as he led commemorations marking the birthday of late leader Mao Zedong.
Beijing views Taiwan as part of China which must be reunited, by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to arm Taiwan.
At their summit in November, Xi told his US counterpart Joe Biden that Taiwan is the “most dangerous” issue in the two countries’ bilateral relations.
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Facing ramped up pressure, Taipei has aimed to boost its defence capabilities, including extending mandatory military service from four months to a year and explicitly boosting its capacity for asymmetric warfare.
The island also opened its first training centre for tactical combat casualty care in December.
Growing distrust and hostility between Taipei and Beijing is affecting journalists, with those from mainland China facing especially strict barriers to covering the elections on the ground.
Despite restrictions, observers and academics will be closely following these results to see how the important and complex relationships across the Taiwan Strait, and beyond, will change over the next four years.
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The coming summit between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden offers an opportunity to lower the temperature on a highly sensitive topic
January’s elections in Taiwan could create further volatility because Beijing views front runner William Lai as a ‘troublemaker through and through’
Taiwan has long been the flashpoint of the China-US relations with Beijing repeatedly warning Washington that mishandling the issue is likely to have a devastating impact on the relationship.
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Illustration: Henry Wong
How Taiwanese presidential candidates’ US tours helped ‘clear misperceptions’
DPP, KMT and TPP candidates have visited the US in recent weeks, meeting informally with foreign-policy makers and officials
DPP’s William Lai played down his independence rhetoric while KMT’s Hou played up support for a strong military, analysts say
Three months before Taiwan’s presidential election, the main contenders have mostly wrapped up efforts to garner support in Washington, and, analysts say, managed to convince policymakers that they do not seek to cross any red lines set by the US or Chinese governments.
With military tensions in the Taiwan Strait and around the island reaching unprecedented levels, their audiences were mostly looking for assurances from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate that he would not declare independence; from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) candidate, they wanted to know that he would not work to appease Beijing.
Photo: James Wendlinger
Halting tariff cuts mainland China’s ‘early warning’ ahead of Taiwan election
Twelve products from Taiwan under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) will be affected from January 1
But analysts say the price of commodities is around 0.5 to 2 per cent of the total exports from Taiwan to mainland China
Beijing has sent an early warning against possible economic fallout should Taiwan’s election result next month lead to a further deterioration of ties, analysts said, as mainland China suspended tariff reductions on several Taiwanese products under a landmark trade-deal on Thursday.
Imports of 12 products from Taiwan, including propylene and paraxylene, covered by the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) would be affected from January 1, according to the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council.
Photo: Xinhua
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Chinese President Xi Jinping paid tribute to Mao Zedong and hailed his political teachings on Tuesday, the 130th anniversary of the late leader’s birth, saying mainland China will “surely” be unified with Taiwan in the future.
“The complete reunification of our motherland is an overall trend, a righteous cause, and the common aspiration of the people. Our motherland must be reunified, and it will surely be reunified,” Xi said in his speech delivered at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Photo: EPA-EFE
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Taiwan’s presidential front runner William Lai Ching-te has claimed his Kuomintang rival’s embrace of the Communist Party and “one China” is dividing the self-ruled island.
Lai, vice-president and candidate for the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party in next month’s election, made the remarks in a televised pitch to voters on Wednesday.
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