Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections that concluded last weekend have several repercussions. First, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te or William Lai won the vote for the presidency with about 40% vote share. This means DPP has now won three presidential elections on the trot. However, the party lost its majority in Taiwan’s legislative yuan (national assembly) with the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) securing 52 seats to its 51 and the relatively new Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) securing 8.
With a previous deal between KMT and TPP last year to coordinate in the legislative assembly, President-elect Lai will have to make compromises with the opposition bloc to get his policies through. Already, KMT has said that the new President should agree to a state of the union address in the legislative yuan – a long-pending demand of many legislators. Plus, it has also said that the next Prime Minister appointed by the President should have the backing of the majority of legislators in the national assembly.
These demands can be seen as part of Taiwan’s evolving democracy with many contending over the years that it should shift to a cabinet form of government. But what this balance between the President and the legislative yuan means is that the recent elections were a lot closer than they appear.
If one were to follow simple math, then Lai’s vote share of 40% is dwarfed by the combined opposition votes of KMT’s Hou You-yi (33%) and TPP’s Ko Wen-je (26%). Of course, in reality votes don’t add up like that. Ko did not just shave off KMT votes but also pulled in DPP votes. This is why both DPP and KMT experienced a dip in their vote share from the 2020 polls – then DPP had pulled in around 57% and KMT had got around 38%. By standing for a middle path between the ideological poles of DPP and KMT, Ko was able to attract a significant section of younger voters who yearn for change and want to break free from Taiwanese politics’ duopoly.
But since the dip in DPP vote share was more than that of the KMT’s, it is safe to assume that Ko and TPP hurt the governing party more. Which means that a section of DPP voters switched and were not animated by the party’s discourse on resisting China. Perhaps they feel that China’s bark is worse than its bite. In fact, in the eight years of DPP administration, Beijing has not directly attacked Taiwan, notwithstanding its intimidating military drills and missile launches around Taiwan.
Plus, with China facing its own socio-economic problems such as a slowing economy and an impending population implosion – it just registered a record low birth rate in 2023 with its population shrinking for the second year in a row – perhaps many Taiwanese feel China is not serious about invading Taiwan. If that is the case, perhaps they prioritise domestic issues such as stagnant Taiwanese wages and housing unaffordability.
And with KMT this time also promising to boost Taiwan’s defence budget and enhance the island nation’s deterrent capabilities against China, the national security differentiation between the two major parties is blurring. If both parties are offering similar national security positions, then voters have to circle back to domestic issues to decide their vote.
2024 Taiwan Presidential Election results (courtesy Bloomberg)
This is where DPP has to think hard about the future. KMT is essentially offering a national security package of deterrence plus engagement to deal with China. DPP is by and large only offering deterrence. Honestly, the US would be fine with both positions and continue supporting Taiwan irrespective of who is in government in Taipei. Taiwan’s strategic value and semiconductor industry have become non-negotiables for Washington.
Washington has already moved to a high degree of bilateral engagement with Taipei that won’t be dialled back. But if the DPP line prevails, Taiwan is likely to face more international diplomatic challenges from China. Just days after Lai’s election victory, the Pacific nation of Nauru switched official recognition from Taiwan to China. Needless to say Beijing’s cheque book diplomacy was behind this. And while Taiwan can certainly live with these setbacks, it isn’t ideal.
This is not to choose between the two major Taiwanese parties but to highlight that KMT becoming more like DPP in its national security stance poses a political dilemma for DPP. Besides, previously, there was a north-south divide in Taiwanese politics with northern and central Taiwan predominantly voting KMT and southern Taiwan voting for DPP. But the last eight years of DPP administration changed that with the party decisively breaking into the north – 40% of Taiwan’s registered electorate is located in four northern special municipalities. However, the electoral map this time around is very similar to when KMT last won the presidency in 2012.
DPP still has the edge. But with a legislative assembly dominated by opposition parties and KMT slowly evolving a new national security position, DPP has its task cut out.
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Views expressed above are the author’s own.
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