With less than two weeks to go before the 2024 elections in Taiwan, the main political parties are going all out to snag a seat in the Legislative Yuan.
Experts interviewed said that if the Green camp were to stay in power, they could face an opposition-majority Legislative Yuan, which would hinder the passing of policies on sensitive issues such as cross-strait policy.
On the other hand, if there is a change in the political guard and the Blue camp becomes the largest political party in the legislature, cross-strait negotiations could progress.
Recent polls
Voting for Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections will be held concurrently on 13 January 2024. Recent polls show that the Blue camp is catching up in the presidential elections, while maintaining a steady lead in the legislative elections.
As there are 113 seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan, a political party must secure 57 seats in order to achieve an absolute majority. On 17 December, polling website “Heartless and Realistic Future Predictions” (无情真实的未来预测) released their legislative election predictions which showed that the Kuomintang (KMT) could win 56 seats — nearly half the total number of seats — with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) winning 47 seats, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) winning eight seats, and independents securing two seats.
On 19 December, the United Daily News released results of a poll which showed that for district legislators, support for the KMT is at 29%, higher than the 23% for DPP, with the TPP ranking last at 9%. When it came to support for legislator-at-large, support for the KMT stood at 31%, 5 percentage points higher than support for the DPP, with support for the TPP in this aspect holding steady at 16%.
Ten to 15 seats crucial
In an interview on 18 December, KMT chairman Eric Chu said that around 15 constituencies would face a tough fight, and if the KMT is successful in those areas, it could even win an absolute majority of seats in the legislature.
Reports from Taiwan’s media outlets collectively showed that the 15 constituencies singled out by the KMT should be referring to two seats in Taipei, three seats in New Taipei, two seats in Taoyuan, two seats in Taichung, two seats in Kaohsiung, and one seat each from Hsinchu, Taitung, as well as lowland and highland aborigines.
Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (left), KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih (centre) and running mate Jaw Shaw-kong (right) cheers to supporters during a campaign rally ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election, in Taipei, on 23 December 2023. (I-Hwa Cheng/AFP)
In late November, a DPP party insider also admitted to Taiwanese media that roughly ten to 15 districts would face intense competition.
In early December, the forum website TPOC through big data analysis suggested ten districts that the DPP could potentially lose; one seat from Taipei, two seats from New Taipei, one seat from Keelung, two seats from Taichung, and one seat each from Nantou, Kaohsiung, Taitung and Pingtung.
… if the KMT were to secure a majority in the Legislative Yuan, cross-strait negotiations could resume. — Shen Yu-chung, Professor, Department of Political Science, Taiwan’s Tunghai University
Impact on cross-strait policy
Even though analyses generally seem to point to cross-strait issues not having much of an impact in this upcoming elections, KMT presidential candidate Hou You-yi and TPP candidate Ko Wen-je have both said if they were elected, they would push to resume cross-strait dialogue on the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement and the Cross-Strait Goods Trade Agreement.
This meant that if there were to be a change in the political guard, the Legislative Yuan would oversee cross-strait negotiations, and the distribution of the seats of the various parties would be a key variable.
In an interview with Lianhe Zaobao, Shen Yu-chung, a professor at the department of political science at Taiwan’s Tunghai University, analysed that if there is a change of political guard in Taiwan next year, and if the KMT were to secure a majority in the Legislative Yuan, cross-strait negotiations could resume — whether this would spark off an incident like the 2014 Sunflower Movement would depend on the actual content and result of these negotiations.
Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s vice president and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) presidential candidate arrives an election campaign event in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, on 22 December 2023. (Ann Wang/Reuters)
Shen said: “If the KMT, in a bid to resume cross-strait dialogue, allows ‘one country, two systems’ or even remotely related topics to be put up for negotiation, and circumvents the oversight of the Legislative Yuan, disregarding opposition from the DPP and other smaller parties, then of course, there’s a possibility that people would take to the streets.”
… if the KMT were to be the largest party in the Legislative Yuan, the Lai Cabinet could then place more focus on domestic politics. Meanwhile, more candidates with no party affiliation or with financial background could be appointed to the Cabinet… — Shen
Lai likely to win
However, Shen predicted that based on the data from recent polls, the DPP’s presidential candidate William Lai Ching-te has a sizeable lead over the other candidates, and is likely to become president; but concerning the Legislative Yuan, it is likely that no party would occupy more than half the seats, and opposition seats might outnumber the ruling party.
Shen felt that if no party were to win more than half the seats, and if the DPP still maintains the most number of seats on the Legislative Yuan, then it would likely mean the DPP would be in control of policy making and distribution of funds, and could hold more sway over cross-strait relations and relations with the US.
But if the KMT were to be the largest party in the Legislative Yuan, the Lai Cabinet could then place more focus on domestic politics. Meanwhile, more candidates with no party affiliation or with financial background could be appointed to the Cabinet in exchange for the Legislative Yuan’s support for personnel appointments.
Moreover, although the TPP, which is viewed as a third faction of power, was unable to collaborate with the Blue camp in the presidential elections, there is still an opportunity for cooperation in the legislative elections.
In terms of district legislators, the KMT reserved three constituencies for the TPP, and the Taichung City Constituency I contested by Tsai Pi-ru, TPP’s candidate for legislator, is viewed as a “testing grounds for Blue-White cooperation.” Both Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen and former Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu represented the KMT and endorsed Tsai in mid-December.
KMT giving in to Ko?
Chen Lu-huei, department head of Taiwan’s National Chengchi University’s department of political science, analysed at a conference in early December that the KMT might suggest a coalition cabinet with Ko and concede to the TPP in relation to the legislator-at-large seats, whilst calling on TPP supporters to vote for KMT’s Hou as president to realise a change in the ruling party.
… while the KMT wants to unite all forces, it is still focusing on putting up a good fight in each constituency to give the KMT a chance to obtain an outright majority in the Legislative Yuan. — Hsu Chiao-hsin, KMT’s legislator candidate for Taipei’s South Songshan and Xinyi District
Ko Wen-je, Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) presidential candidate high-fives a supporter during a campaign event ahead of the election in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on 23 December 2023. (Ann Wang/Reuters)
But Chen felt that at the moment, there is no sign that Ko is willing to join in such a collaboration, and it remains to be seen if such a sacrificial play would happen.
Shen, on the other hand, commented that although the TPP attacked the DPP more in the course of the election campaign, it could choose to cooperate with either the Blue or Green camp in the Legislative Yuan depending on the issue. Shen felt that if neither the Blue or Green camp secured more than half the seats in the Legislative Yuan, the TPP would become a key factor under such circumstances.
However, Hsu Chiao-hsin, KMT’s legislator candidate for Taipei’s South Songshan and Xinyi District who is perceived as a rising star for the KMT, said when interviewed that while the KMT wants to unite all forces, it is still focusing on putting up a good fight in each constituency to give the KMT a chance to obtain an outright majority in the Legislative Yuan.
No DPP candidate in these constituencies
Also, the DPP did not field a candidate in four constituencies for the upcoming elections.
Other than Taoyuan City Constituency VI, which the DPP continues to leave to independent candidate Chao Cheng-yu, and Kinmen county constituency, which has long been tough grounds for the DPP, the DPP has also endorsed Social Democratic Party’s Taipei City councillor Miao Po-ya and independent candidate Tseng Wen-hsueh in Miaoli county, which are KMT strongholds.
In general, analysts believe that these three non-DPP candidates are following the same path as the DPP and would not be at all surprised if they were to become DPP members post-election; it is unlikely that they would become a third faction of power.
However, when interviewed, Miao stressed that in her last five years of service as a Taipei City councillor, she has advocated rational governance and supervision, and that her actions speak for themselves. Hence, even with the DPP in office, she would support policies that are deemed worthy and also raise her concerns and make criticisms when necessary.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “台湾立法院选情激烈 席位分布成影响两岸关键”.
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