Three former Service Chiefs General Manoj Naravane (Retd), Admiral Karambir Singh (Retd) and Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria (Retd) are visiting Taiwan to speak and participate in a security dialogue at the Ketagalan Forum, a Security event focused on the Indo-Pacific which is hosted by Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry.
Admiral Karambir Singh is the Chairman of the National Maritime Foundation which is an independent and autonomous think-tank, its intellectual and organisational development is supported by the Ministry of Defence and the Indian Navy. Apart from the three former Service Chiefs, Major General RPS Bhadauria (Retd) presently the Director of Centre for Strategic Studies & Simulation (CS3) at United Service Institution of India (USI), India’s oldest think tank, also attended the dialogue.
Incidentally, the USI has MoUs with a large number of think tanks and Institutes across the globe, including Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research (INDSR), the Cross-Strait Interflow Prospect Foundation, and the Chinese Council for Advanced Political Studies (CAPS).
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On 8 August President Tsai Ing-wen spoke at the opening of the Ketagalan Forum: 2023 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue. She stated that maintaining the rules-based order is imperative to our region’s stability and prosperity. The President said that Taiwan has dedicated itself to being part of the democratic alliance that works to prevent authoritarian expansionism while tackling issues such as climate change, emerging diseases, and terrorism. She also pointed out that Taiwan’s high-tech sector, especially with its leading edge in semiconductors, will be crucial to creating a secure global supply chain.
One China Policy
India was among the first countries to recognise communist China in 1949. In 2003, then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee declared India’s support to One China policy and stated that there is one China and its one China policy remains unaltered.
“One China” is basically the framework guiding relations between China, Taiwan, and the United States, thereby making it a triangular relationship amongst the four key players; China, USA and the two political parties of Taiwan; KMT and DPP. The four stakeholders converge on the phrase “there is only one China in the world,” but have differed substantially on the related components of the “One-China” question.
The PRC aims at complete unification with Taiwan, with some analysts predicting it to be as early as 2030, especially under the assertive leadership of Chairman Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream” of attaining wealth, power, and modernisation for China as a whole. Given the value that China places on unification with Taiwan and its increasing military capabilities and coercion, there are analysts who believe there is a significant probability that China will use force against Taiwan at some point of time. Post the Ukrainian conflict this issue has also been in the spotlight with Admiral Lee His-min a former Chief of General Staff saying that; “Taiwan is not ready to deter, let alone fend off a Chinese invasion, at least not using the same tactics and systems as before.”
The US government follows the “One China Policy”, interpreted, based on informal and formal institutions that serve as the basis for US-China relations and US-Taiwan relations. KMT continues to profess that the 1992 Consensus (in the sense of “one China, differing interpretations”) is the best policy for cross-Strait relations. While DPP, the ruling dispensation in Taiwan is well known for its pro-independence and anti-“One China” leanings.
The current President Tsai, following her 2020 re-election, was emphatic during one of her interviews that “we are an independent country already” and that younger Taiwanese are “pretty used to the idea that we have a separate identity, and we are a country of our own”.
Taiwan’s relations with China have deteriorated significantly since President Tsai Ing-Wen assumed office, as indicated by an increase in hostile rhetoric and Chinese military activities near Taiwan’s airspace, including increased frequency and scale of Chinese military exercises near Taiwan, to which Taiwan has been objecting. Chinese maritime exercises around Taiwan have become routine, while Chinese patrols and selective discriminatory measures against Taiwanese firms present elevated risk of cargo and marine transport disruption.
China’s Belligerence Continues
While India recognised One China policy, a reciprocation in form of One India policy (The phrase ‘One India Policy’ was first articulated by Late Sushma Swaraj, the then EAM, during discussion with her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi during latter’s visit to India in June 2014) from the Chinese side has ever been absent. China expected India to recognise Tibet as an integral part of China and accept the One China policy and India did so without reservation.
To the disappointment of India, China has continued to refer to Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Arunachal Pradesh as disputed territories. China has always disregarded the sovereignty of India through its stance on Jammu and Kashmir and Aksai Chin, Arunachal Pradesh, denial and issue of stapled visas to certain Indian citizens and number of skirmishes on the LAC in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. China has also been silent over Pakistan’s support to terrorism and had blocked India’s bid in the UNSC to declare Masood Azhar as international terrorist as well as supporting Pakistan in The Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The latest such act was criticising India’s abolition of Art 370 that withdrew the special status granted to the Indian state of J&K.
India naturally feels wronged by the Chinese stand on its core concerns -questioning India’s territorial sovereignty, border transgressions, China’s aggressive posturing in India’s neighbourhood, lack of support for India’s stand against terrorism and China’s persistent opposition to India’s global aspirations – entry into NSG and permanent membership of the UNSC. Further, there is an increasing collusivity with Pakistan that is manifesting itself in multiple ways right from developing infrastructure; the CPEC through a disputed area to military support.
India – Taiwan Relations
The relations between the two countries actually took off after 2010 with China’s stand on visa to residents of J&K and Arunachal, proving to be a turning point. Since then, numerous delegations from both countries have visited each other, with Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy gearing for more engagement. Economic cooperation in areas of trade, investment and industry between India and Taiwan has been very close in recent years. From 1.19 billion USD in 2001-02 to 7.5 billion USD in 2018-19, the two-way trade has increased manifold since the onset of the twenty-first century. India ranks as Taiwan’s 14th largest export destination and 18th largest source of imports. Trade has thrived due to the good relations between the two countries.
In a concerted effort to expand Taiwan’s presence across the Indo-Pacific, President Tsai Ing-wen introduced the New Southbound Policy (NSP) in 2016. The NSP builds on the ‘Go South’ policies of previous administrations, and continues Taiwan’s efforts to find a solution to the perennial problem of how to balance its economic interests – which depend on relations with China – with its security interests – which do not. The NSP takes a ‘people-centric’ approach. The flagship foreign policy of President Tsai Ing-Wen, the NSP expands the scope of countries covered in the Go South Policy, which was in practice under former Presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian. Through the policy, Taiwan has extended engagement with Australia, New Zealand, India, and its five South Asian neighbours. The NSP is a national strategy that seeks to reposition Taiwan’s role in Asia, by providing a unique framework that encourages multi-layered linkages with these countries that include India.
The importance of India lies in the fact that it is a key player in the Indo-Pacific Order, and India’s support may strengthen Taiwan’s positioning in the region. As India is elevating ties with the US, Japan, and Australia, it is logical for Taiwan to build on these Indo-Pacific commonalities and connections and engage with India. There is no doubt that India’s role at both global and regional levels is likely to grow further. Greater collaboration between India and Taiwan under the NSP framework is mutually beneficial.
Taiwan Trade Thrives but Security Interests Dominate
In 2021, PRC accounted for 42 per cent of Taiwan’s total exports, by value, amounting to USD 188.91 billion. Machinery, instruments, plastic, rubbers and chemical products have been the major commodities exported by Taiwan in the past five years. The annual value of Taiwan’s investments in mainland China reached US$ 5.86 billion in 2021, meanwhile, the mainland’s investment on the Island comprised just US$ 116.24 million in 2021.
Incidentally, the Taiwanese semiconductor industry, including IC manufacturing, design, and packing, forms a major part of Taiwan’s IT industry. Due to its strong capabilities in OEM wafer manufacturing and a complete industry supply chain, Taiwan has been able to dominate the global marketplace. Taiwanese Companies account for 50 per cent of the world market, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) the biggest player in the foundry market.
There is a view that Taiwan’s interdependence with the Chinese economy is eroding its special status as Taiwan’s economy is getting increasingly entangled with Mainland China. While on the other hand, tensions between the two countries are escalating as is visible in the increased military and political pressure being put by Beijing, especially after Senator Nancy Pelosi’s visit in 2022.
Further there has been an increased violation of territorial sovereignty by People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and Air Force (PLAAF) as they have conducted many combined manoeuvres in the airspace and waters surrounding Taiwan.
Presently, the US is seen to be acting as a balancer between China and Taiwan in ensuring peace and stability in Taiwan’s Strait. Under President Biden the US-Taiwan ties have deepened and the arms-sales have increased as also the high-level interactions.
India’s Stance
In a written response to a question in the Rajya Sabha in 2021, the Minister of State for External Affairs V Muraleedharan said, “India’s policy on Taiwan is clear and consistent. The Government facilitates and promotes interactions in areas of trade, investment, tourism, culture, education and other such people-to-people exchanges.”
India needs to carefully balance its strategic interests and regional dynamics. India’s stance aims at protecting its sovereignty, maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific, and fostering economic growth. It is thus crucial for India to engage with Taiwan while avoiding unnecessary provocations that could escalate tensions with China.
By pursuing a nuanced approach that combines economic cooperation, strategic partnerships, and principled support for democratic values, India can position itself as a responsible regional power while navigating the complexities of its relationship with China and other key stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific region. Ultimately, India’s modified approach towards the One China policy should be guided by its long-term national interests and a commitment to maintaining a free, open, and rules-based order in the region.
Conclusion
There is no doubt that India’s stance regarding Taiwan, must ensure that its interests are protected, Chinese expansionism is contained and a level playing field is created in economic co-operation and trade deficit with China and some leverage is available in negotiations with China.
India need not completely abandon its One China Policy but should adopt a dual-track policy that would involve continuing to engage with China in areas of mutual interest and concern while also enhancing relations with Taiwan based on areas of mutual benefit and complementarity. The security concerns for both countries which emanate from China is one of the areas of convergence and hence there is a need for each side to understand one another, the visit of the three former Service Chiefs should be viewed in this context.
The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost‘s views.
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