It is crucial for India to engage with Taiwan while avoiding unnecessary provocations that could escalate tensions with China.
New Delhi
THE TAIWAN VISITThree former Service Chiefs, General Manoj Naravane (Retd), Admiral Karambir Singh (Retd)and Air Chief Marshal R.K.S. Bhadauria (Retd) are visiting Taiwan to speak and participate in a security dialogue at the Ketagalan Forum, a security event focused on the Indo-Pacific which is hosted by Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry.
Admiral Karambir Singh is the Chairman of the National Maritime Foundation which is an independent and autonomous think-tank, whose intellectual and organisational development is supported by the Ministry of Defence and the Indian Navy.On 8 August, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen spoke at the opening of the Ketagalan Forum: 2023 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue. She stated that maintaining the rules-based order is imperative for our region’s stability and prosperity. The President said that Taiwan has dedicated itself to being part of the democratic alliance that works to prevent authoritarian expansionism while tackling issues such as climate change, emerging diseases, and terrorism. She also pointed out that Taiwan’s high-tech sector, especially with its leading edge in semiconductors, will be crucial to creating a secure global supply chain.
ONE CHINA POLICYIndia was among the first countries to recognise communist China in 1949. In 2003, then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee declared India’s support to One China policy and stated that there is one China and its one China policy remains unaltered.
“One China” is basically the framework guiding relations between China, Taiwan, and the United States, thereby making it a triangular relationship amongst the four key players; China, the US and the two political parties of Taiwan–KMT and DPP. The four stakeholders converge on the phrase “there is only one China in the world,” but have differed substantially on the related components of the “One-China” question.
The PRC aims at complete unification of Taiwan, with some analysts predicting this to take place as early as 2030, especially under the assertive leadership of Chairman Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream” of attaining wealth, power, and modernization for China as a whole. Given the value that China places on unification with Taiwan and its increasing military capabilities and coercion, there are analysts who believe there is a significant probability that China will use force against Taiwan at some point of time.
The US government follows the “One China Policy” based on informal and formal institutions that serve as the basis for US-China relations and US-Taiwan relations. KMT continues to profess that the 1992 Consensus (in the sense of “one China, differing interpretations”) is the best policy for cross-Strait relations. While DPP, the ruling dispensation in Taiwan is well known for its pro-independence and anti “One China” leanings.The current President Tsai, following her 2020 re-election, was emphatic during one of her interviews that, “we are an independent country already” and that the younger Taiwanese are “pretty used to the idea that we have a separate identity, and we are a country of our own.”
Taiwan’s relations with China have deteriorated significantly since President Tsai Ing-Wen assumed office, as indicated by an increase in hostile rhetoric and Chinese military activities near Taiwan’s airspace, including increased frequency and scale of Chinese military exercises near Taiwan, to which Taiwan has been objecting.
CHINA’S BELLIGERENCEWhile India recognized the One China policy, a reciprocation in the form of One India policy (the phrase “One India Policy” was first articulated by the late Sushma Swaraj, the then External Affairs Minister, during discussions with her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi during the latter’s visit to India in June 2014) from the Chinese side has ever been absent. China expected India to recognise Tibet as an integral part of China and accept the One China policy and India did so without reservation.
To the disappointment of India, China has continued to refer Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Arunachal Pradesh as disputed territories; has disregarded India’s sovereignty by denying or issuing stapled visas to certain Indian citizens. It also gets into skirmishes with India along the LAC in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. China has also been silent over Pakistan’s support to terrorism and has blocked India’s bid in the UNSC to declare Masood Azhar as international terrorist as also supporting Pakistan in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The latest such act being criticising India’s abolition of Article 370 that withdrew the special status granted to the Indian state of J&K. China has also persistently opposed India’s global aspirations–entry into NSG and permanent membership of the UNSC. Further, there is increasing collusion with Pakistan that is manifesting itself in multiple ways right from developing infrastructure–the CPEC–through a disputed area to military support.
INDIA-TAIWAN RELATIONSRelations between the two countries actually took off after 2010, with China’s stand on visa to residents of J&K and Arunachal proving to be a turning point. Since then, numerous delegations from both countries have visited each other, with Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy gearing for more engagement. Economic cooperation in areas of trade, investment and industry between India and Taiwan has been very close in recent years. From US$1.19 bn in 2001-02 to US$7.5 bn in 2018-19, the two-way trade has increased manifold since the onset of the twenty-first century. India ranks as Taiwan’s 14th largest export destination and 18th largest source of imports. Trade has thrived due to the good relations between the two countries.
In a concerted effort to expand Taiwan’s presence across the Indo-Pacific, President Tsai Ing-wen introduced the New Southbound Policy (NSP) in 2016. The NSP builds on the “Go South” policies of previous administrations, continues Taiwan’s efforts to find a solution to the perennial problem of how to balance its economic interests–which depend on relations with China–with its security interests, which do not. The NSP takes a people-centric approach. The flagship foreign policy of President Tsai Ing-Wen, the NSP expands the scope of countries covered in the Go South Policy, which was in practice under former Presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian. Through the policy, Taiwan has extended engagement with Australia, New Zealand, India, and its five South Asian neighbours. The NSP is a national strategy that seeks to reposition Taiwan’s role in Asia, by providing a unique framework that encourages multi-layered linkages with these countries that include India.
India is a key player in the Indo-Pacific order, and India’s support may strengthen Taiwan’s positioning in the region. As India is elevating ties with the US, Japan, and Australia, it is logical for Taiwan to build on these Indo-Pacific commonalities and connections and engage with India. There is no doubt that India’s role at both global and regional levels is likely to grow further. Greater collaboration between India and Taiwan under the NSP framework is mutually beneficial.
TRADE THRIVES BUT SECURITY DOMINATESIn 2021, PRC accounted for 42% of Taiwan’s total exports, by value, amounting to US$188.91 bn. Machinery, instruments, plastic, rubbers and chemical products have been the major commodities exported by Taiwan in the past five years. The annual value of Taiwan’s investments in mainland China reached US$5.86 billion in 2021, meanwhile, the mainland’s investment on the Island comprised just US$116.24 million in 2021.
The Taiwanese semiconductor industry forms a major part of Taiwan’s IT industry. Due to its strong capabilities in OEM wafer manufacturing and a complete industry supply chain, Taiwan has been able to and dominate the global marketplace. Taiwanese companies account for 50% of the world market, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) the biggest player in the foundry market.
There is a view that Taiwan’s interdependence with the Chinese economy is increasingly entangling it with Mainland China. While on the other hand tensions between the two countries are escalating as is visible in the increased military and political pressure being put by Beijing, especially after Senator Nancy Pelosi’s visit in 2022.
Further there has been an increased violation of territorial sovereignty by People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and Air Force (PLAAF) as they have conducted many combined manoeuvres in the airspace and waters surrounding Taiwan.Presently, the US is seen as a balancer between China and Taiwan in ensuring peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Under President Biden, US-Taiwan ties have deepened and arms sales have increased as well as high-level interactions.
INDIA’S STANCEIn a written response to a question in the Rajya Sabha in 2021, the Minister of State for External Affairs V. Muraleedharan said, “India’s policy on Taiwan is clear and consistent. The Government facilitates and promotes interactions in areas of trade, investment, tourism, culture, education and other such people-to-people exchanges.”India needs to carefully balance its strategic interests and regional dynamics. India’s stance aims at protecting its sovereignty, maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific, and fostering economic growth. It is thus crucial for India to engage with Taiwan while avoiding unnecessary provocations that could escalate tensions with China.
By pursuing a nuanced approach that combines economic cooperation, strategic partnerships, and principled support for democratic values, India can position itself as a responsible regional power while navigating the complexities of its relationship with China and other key stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific region. Ultimately, India’s modified approach towards the One China policy should be guided by its long-term national interests and a commitment to maintaining a free, open, and rules-based order in the region.
India need not completely abandon its One China Policy but should adopt a dual-track policy that would involve continuing to engage with China in areas of mutual interest and concern while also enhancing relations with Taiwan based on areas of mutual benefit and complementarity.
Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh VSM (Retd) is a former Army officer.
