North Korea, China and Russia are the dangerous trio that has sent countries worldwide scrambling to equip themselves with both conventional and state-of-the-art weapons to counter the risks they pose.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the global military budget hit an all-time high of $2.24 trillion in total in 2022, up 3.7 percent from the previous year.
The U.S. took the lion’s share with nearly 40 percent of total defense budget spending, followed by China and Russia. South Korea came ninth with $46.4 billion, slightly ahead of Japan, which spent $46 billion.
“We have North Korea here whose threat continues to grow year after year,” Kim Min-seok, a former spokesman at the Ministry of National Defense and vice president of Korea Aerospace Industries Association in Seoul, told The Korea Times.
He said China’s ambitious maritime strategy is another ominous sign that can bring irreversible consequences to regional security if implemented as scheduled.
He added that China aims to put the territory in the so-called first island chain of the South China Sea under its control, by force, in 2025.
The first island chain refers to the virtual line drawn through the Kuril Islands, the Japanese archipelago, the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, the northwestern part of the Philippines and Borneo. It also encompasses Senkaku Islands, which China calls Diaoyu Islands. Therefore, if China were to implement measures to fulfill its maritime strategy, territorial disputes between Japan and China will intensify further.
Kim said the ongoing war in Ukraine is another root cause of the global arms race that is feared to expand into all of Eastern Europe in 2025, if things go badly.
“Guess what will happen if these three events – namely the North Korean security threat, China’s maritime ambitions and the possible expansion of the war in Ukraine into other parts of Europe – are all at play simultaneously in 2025. Things will get out of control,” he said, noting that the global arms race reflects such a worst-case scenario looming large.
Nations in the Indo-Pacific region, most notably Australia and Japan, scrambled to modernize their militaries amid fears that China’s maritime ambitions could deal a serious blow to their national security.
Last week, Australia signed a $3.4 billion contract with South Korea’s Hanwha Defense to build 129 infantry fighting vehicles (IFV) for the Australian Army. It is the largest military acquisition in the country’s history. The next generation of Hanwha’s Redback combat vehicles will be manufactured at its Geelong plant.
The landmark deal to acquire 129 IFVs came on the heels of Australia unveiling a defense strategy review which recommended an increase in its defense expenditure beyond the current budget of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), improve the military’s capabilities to precisely strike targets at longer ranges and manufacture munitions at home.
The document singled out China as “the largest and most ambitious of any country since the end of World War II.”
Earlier, Australia announced plans to purchase eight nuclear-powered submarines from the United States.
Bec Shrimpton, director of defense, strategy and national security of the Sydney-based think tank, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said Australia’s military buildup aims to strengthen its deterrence against foreign forces.
“Australia’s submarine investment is key for credible deterrence in a highly complex security environment and reflects Australia’s maritime strategic geography,” she told The Korea Times. “The IFVs provide essential land capability for the Army in an integrated force structure.”
China is the world’s second-biggest spender on defense, following the United States.
During the past decade, China’s defense budget remained at 1.7 percent to 1.8 percent of its GDP.
The figure reflects an increase of roughly 0.4 to 0.5 percent of GDP from the previous decade.
China has a massive stockpile of missiles, stealth aircraft, bombers capable of delivering nuclear weapons, advanced surface ships and nuclear-powered submarines, according to the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s 2019 report, titled “China Military Power: Modernizing a Force to Fight and Win.”
The country also has three aircraft carriers with the latest Fujian aircraft carrier launched last year that was built using homegrown technology and design. Aircraft carriers are a symbol of a country’s military clout and China is one of a few countries with multiple aircraft carriers.
Japan reacted to China’s military buildup by announcing a dramatic increase of its defense budget. Japan plans to double military spending and raise its defense budget to 2 percent of GDP by 2027 from the current 1 percent.
If implemented as scheduled, Japan’s military expenditure will be much higher than that of South Korea.
Over the past decade, South Korea set aside around 2.5 to 2.8 percent of GDP for defense spending.
The Ministry of National Defense seeks to scale up the defense budget up to 3 percent of GDP, but the plan faces opposition from lawmakers.
The U.S.’s defense budget accounted for 3.5 percent of its GDP in 2021.
On top of the budget increase, Tokyo also announced it will acquire new weapons – land or sea-launched missiles that can strike targets 1,000 kilometers away – amid fears that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will pose a grave threat to Japan’s national security.
In its national security strategy unveiled earlier, Japan identified China as the “greatest challenge ever to securing the peace and stability of Japan.”
Will China invade Taiwan?The arms race in the Indo-Pacific region raises a key question: Will China go ahead with an invasion of Taiwan as several countries in the region speculate as a possible scenario in the near future?
U.S. officials remain divided over the answer. U.S. Air Force General Mike Minihan, commander of Air Mobility Command, for example, saw it as a possible scenario that could happen as early as 2025. But the Department of Defense (DOD) denied it, saying his view did not reflect the DOD’s official stance.
Timothy R. Heath, a senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corporation in Washington D.C., said a Chinese invasion of Taiwan does not seem to be a feasible scenario, at least, in the very near future.
He said there are various reasons for Beijing to build up its military, saying China is facing a multitude of threats, including the dangers of Taiwan separatism, territorial disputes with Southeast Asian countries in the East and South China seas and border disputes with other countries.
He said national prestige is also one of the drivers behind Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s aggressive move to modernize the People’s Liberation Army.
“Like autocrats elsewhere, Chinese leaders regard a powerful military as a sign of national status and as a way of whipping up patriotic enthusiasm. This explains in part the government’s pursuit of high-profile status symbols such as aircraft carriers,” he said.
Although he believes a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent, Heath said Australia’s and Japan’s responses to China’s military buildup are a necessary measure.
“Although there are many reasons for China to build up its military, its intentions could change someday,” he said. “It is possible that a more aggressive or radicalized leader might be tempted to use the Chinese military against Asian countries. It is in the best interest of all countries to make adequate deterrence preparations to discourage any Chinese leaders from risking conflict.”
gettyimagesbankBalancing actChina’s military buildup sounded the alarm to Southeast Asian countries that are in territorial disputes with China in the East and South China seas.
Among the countries, Vietnam is the most outspoken against China.
“(There’s) no doubt that some Southeast Asian countries are more vocal and visibly pushing back against China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea,” said Collin Koh, an associate research fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “Vietnam has been consistently putting up this profile and in recent years the Philippines has also started to steel its resolve against Beijing.”
Koh said the responses of Southeast Asian countries to China’s military buildup, however, are different from that of Australia or Japan, mainly because of budgetary constraints.
“Many of these countries have consistently underspent on defense,” he said, noting that financial resources they can invest in their militaries are very limited because of rising debt levels, dwindling foreign currency reserves and worsened trade after the pandemic.
He added that budgetary constraints faced by Southeast Asian countries led them to rely on foreign powers, such as the United States, to fill the defense gap.
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor and head of the Department of International Relations at King’s College London, observed that the territorial disputes with China amid a strengthened U.S. presence in the Indo-Pacific region could end up hurting Beijing.
“When it comes to countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand or Vietnam, I don’t think that any of them is leaning towards China,” he said.
“Quietly, some of them, including Indonesia, Singapore or Thailand, are improving security ties with the United States. Others such as the Philippines or Vietnam are doing this more openly. And I think that they will continue to do this as long as China continues with its territorial claims in the East and South China Seas.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, left, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, right, arrive at The Peter and Paul Fortress to attend the Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg, Russia, on July 30. AP-Yonhap
