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Written by Frédéric Krumbein.
Image credit: 韓國瑜/ Facebook.
Han Kuo-yu was mayor of Kaohsiung and the Kuomintang (KMT) candidate in the 2020 presidential election. He was also put on top of the KMT party list for the 2024 parliamentary election and was elected as the speaker of the 11th Legislative Yuan on 1 February 2024. He is arguably the most definitive example of a populist in Taiwan in recent years, if not since Taiwan’s democratisation in the 1990s. His rapid ascent and equally swift decline as mayor of Kaohsiung and a presidential candidate illustrate the opportunities and limitations of populists in Taiwan.
The quick rise of a populist
Populism may be understood from various perspectives: as a political-strategic approach where a populist leader directly seeks support from the masses without mediation; as a socio-cultural approach, characterising populism as a distinct political style aimed at rallying the populace, often through the spread of alternative truths, folkloric performances; or as an ideational approach that views society as split between two opposing factions, ‘the pure people’ and ‘the corrupt elite.’ In this ideational view, ‘the people’ are seen as a homogeneous group, morally virtuous, and embodying the collective will. Han’s electoral campaign and his initial success in 2018 were built on three main themes. First, he said that Taiwan was once economically prosperous but had slid into decline. Second, Han claimed that the ‘common people’ just wanted to make money. Taiwanese politicians should not concern themselves with complicated questions of international politics or cross-strait relations. Third, Han reiterated that voters could trust him because he was a ‘simple commoner’ himself.
Initially, many Taiwanese liked that Han styled himself as an outsider and a ‘common man’ and had a fresh style. Furthermore, during the 2018 Taiwanese local elections, there was widespread dissatisfaction with the Tsai government due to a comparatively low economic growth rate during her first term, the enactment of controversial pension and labour reforms, and strained cross-strait relations.
Media narratives of Han Kuo-yu
In the lead-up to Taiwan’s 2020 election, narratives within three major Taiwanese newspapers—the China Times, the Liberty Times, and the United Daily News—uniformly portrayed Han Kuo-yu as a populist. This depiction was specifically focused on his political style. However, in the pro-KMT China Times, Han’s populism was sometimes seen positively or downplayed as being necessary because populism is either a general trend in Taiwanese politics or because President Tsai is also a populist. Han thus has no choice but to adapt to this overall populist trend and/or Tsai’s populism. Whereas in the China Times and the United Daily News, Han’s populism is seen ambiguously, the more pro-DPP Liberty Times views Han’s populism as unequivocally negative.
Several articles mention different factors and reasons why Han Kuo-yu can be classified as a populist: Han’s ‘anti-elitist’ and ‘anti-expert’ discourse; his simple and direct language and his simple slogans; his direct connection with voters through social media and mass rallies; his self-styling as a ‘common man’ and political outsider; and his negative views on Taiwan’s democracy and positive views on Taiwan’s authoritarian past. His discourse conforms to the divide between a ‘pure people’, which he claims to represent and to be a part of, and a ‘corrupt elite’. His style and discourses were instrumental in his success, being an outsider who represents ‘the people’.
The China Times and the United Daily News also characterised President Tsai and the DPP as populist in some articles due to her and her party’s cross-strait positions and policies. Opposing closer cross-strait relations is often portrayed as irrational. But ‘irrational’ here usually means to advocate political positions that the authors of the articles do not share. This hardly qualifies as populism.
Whether a newspaper classifies a politician as populist often depends on the journalist or commentator’s own political stance. In Taiwan, the debate on populism within the media is highly politicised, with the term “populism” being used to discredit opposing politicians or parties. This is especially true for individuals and groups emphasising Taiwan’s identity and/or critiquing the influence of mainland China. At worst, these definitions are nonsense, akin to viewing Tsai Ing-wen as an authoritarian leader.
Han Kuo-yu’s fall as a presidential candidate and mayor
But in the presidential elections on 11 January 2020, President Tsai Ing-wen received 57.1 per cent of the vote, and Han Kuo-yu only 38.6 per cent. In June 2020, Han was even recalled as mayor of Kaohsiung. Several factors explain Han Kuo-yu’s ultimate failure in the presidential election. First, he often seemed incompetent and chaotic in his management of municipal affairs. Second, trust in his character eroded during the electoral campaign. He had broken his promise to the people of Kaohsiung that he would not run for president. Additionally, he was involved in scandals, such as speculation in luxury real estate, which undermined his populist brand as a ‘common man’. Third, though Han’s stance against ideology, that is, largely ignoring cross-strait relations, worked in a local election in Kaohsiung, national elections in Taiwan generally tend to be dominated by the ‘China factor.’
This was particularly true for the 2020 election due to the Hong Kong protest movement in the year 2019. Furthermore, on 2 January 2019, Xi Jinping also reaffirmed in a keynote address on Taiwan marking the 40th anniversary of the Issuance of the Message to Compatriots in Taiwan that a union of the mainland with Taiwan was inevitable, by force if necessary, and that it should be carried out under the ‘one country, two systems’ formula. Xi’s speech mainly reaffirmed the PRC’s long-standing position on cross-strait relations, but coupled with the Hong Kong protest movement, Xi’s uncompromising stance strengthened Tsai Ing-wen, who vowed to protect Taiwan’s democracy and sovereignty. The events in Hong Kong galvanised support for President Tsai, in particular among the young generation, who turned out in record numbers. Additionally, the ‘blue camp’ experienced internal divisions, with parts of the KMT elite having been sceptical of Han’s competence to govern Taiwan and James Soong running for president, supported by Foxconn founder Terry Gou.
Is Taiwan a hard place for populists?
Han Guo-yu is probably the best example of a populist in Taiwanese politics, even though other potential cases of populism are also discussed in Taiwan, in particular former presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian. Han’s re-emergence on the national political stage as the speaker of the Legislative Yuan is also a testament to his enduring popularity among wide parts of the KMT electorate. Why does populism seem to have a hard time in Taiwan? The first reason is Taiwan’s party system, and the second reason is the ‘China factor.’
Firstly, Taiwan’s electoral system tends to support a two-party system, as the president and the majority of the Legislative Yuan members are elected through a simple majority vote. This structure, exemplified by the dominance of the DPP and the KMT as the two major parties in Taiwan, poses significant challenges for third parties attempting to gain success. But populists can still capture a mainstream party, as Han Guo-yu partly did (or Donald Trump in the United States). Taiwan’s political and party system thus makes it more difficult for populists to emerge, even though it is not impossible. Ko Wen-je also shows how third candidates with a populist touch can be relatively successful, even though it is too early to tell whether he and his party will continue to play a crucial role in Taiwanese politics in the future.
Secondly, the ‘China factor’ puts populists in a more difficult position, too. Any candidate for a national election in Taiwan needs to have a clear and balanced position on this issue in order to be elected. This topic is difficult for a populist to address because the majority of the Taiwanese prefer the status quo and stability in cross-strait relations. Any candidate that proposes a more radical solution, either independence or unification, will have a hard time being elected. Similarly, a candidate who ignores the topic altogether or does seem to lack the competence to handle the delicate relationship with mainland China is also likely to be rejected by the Taiwanese electorate.
Frédéric Krumbein is the Heinrich Heine Visiting Professor of Tel Aviv University. He was two times a Taiwan Fellow of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (R.O.C.) and also an International Visiting Fellow of the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy. His research focuses on human rights, LGBTQ+ rights and populism in East Asia, EU-Taiwan and EU-China relations, and cross-strait relations.
This contribution to Taiwan Insight is based on the article ‘Populist Discourses in Taiwan and the Case of Han Kuo-yu,’ published in the International Journal of Taiwan Studies, https://brill.com/view/journals/ijts/aop/article-10.1163-24688800-20231313/article-10.1163-24688800-20231313.xml?language=en&ebody=abstract%2Fexcerpt.
The article examines how three leading Taiwanese newspapers, the China Times, the Liberty Times, and the United Daily News, have reported about him and his populist strategy and style. The analysis of Han Kuo-yu and the media coverage about him is based on three leading approaches to defining and understanding populism—the ‘ideational’, ‘political-strategic’, and ‘socio-cultural’ approaches—and academic definitions of populism that have been used and invented by scholars in Taiwan since the island’s democratisation in the 1990s.
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