Asian security experts argue that China’s aggressive behavior and ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region have led India to strengthen its military and economic ties with the United States and Europe. China’s actions, such as testing India’s borders and threatening Taiwan’s democracy, have significantly influenced India’s strategic calculations, according to experts who spoke at a recent online event hosted by the Brookings Institution.
Garima Mohan, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program, identifies China as India’s “consequential challenge.” Previously, Indian governments considered the United States as a “spoiler,” but now, according to Tanyi Madan, Director of the India Project at the Project on International Order and Strategy, India views the US as an “enabler.”
While India remains committed to retaining strategic autonomy, it is open to forming alliances and partnerships with other countries, says C. Rajua Mohan, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New Delhi. India shares major power ambitions with the US and desires a multi-polar Asia rather than one dominated by a single nation.
China’s bullying and threats have set a new tone for India’s relations with the United States and Europe, creating a template for cooperation. Both India and the US have mutual interests in establishing a better order in trade, development, and security within the Indo-Pacific region.
The “Quad,” an informal alliance between India, the United States, Japan, and Australia, exemplifies India’s efforts to collaborate with like-minded countries on critical issues. However, a recent meeting between the Quad leaders had to be canceled as President Joe Biden returned to the US to address discussions on raising the American debt ceiling.
India faces questions about how fast and far it should partner with the US, especially considering its historical relationship with Russia. Russia remains India’s primary military weapons supplier, while France comes in second.
The growing partnership between China and Russia, labeled as a “no limits” partnership, poses a challenge for India. This alliance has progressed further with new economic agreements signed between the two countries, supporting Russia amidst sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The deepening relationship between China and Russia creates a fault line for India, as historically, India has maintained a diversified portfolio of security, trade, and economic relations with both countries since gaining independence from the United Kingdom in 1948, says Tanyi Madan.
According to Madan, there is significant convergence between India, the U.S., and France on trade, technology, and innovation. However, differences arise regarding the direction of New Delhi’s internal development and concerns over India’s relative silence on the war in Ukraine. Raja Mohan attributes these differences to India’s long-standing policy of non-interference by other nations in its internal affairs, a stance followed since 1948.
India’s economic outreach to Europe has been ongoing for years, and the European Union’s recognition of India as an important nation in 2018 has strengthened the ties further. This increased engagement has led to serious discussions about Taiwan as a security issue posed by China in Europe.
Raja Mohan also points out that India, being the largest nation in terms of population, has the potential to become the world’s third-largest economy in the near future.
As India and the United States grow closer, Madan emphasizes the need for both governments to be transparent about the importance of the relationship and explain it to their citizens instead of hiding its significance.
In the Indo-Pacific region, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned of confrontation amid Chinese aggression and coercive actions. During his address to the U.S. Congress, he highlighted the importance of India-US defence ties and growing partnership. He emphasized a shared vision of a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific based on international law, without domination, and anchored in ASEAN centrality. The focus is on allowing all nations, regardless of size, to make their choices freely and fearlessly, promoting progress and prosperity without strategic leverage. The vision aims to build a cooperative region of peace and prosperity through regional institutions and collaboration with partners from within and beyond the region. India’s defence cooperation with the United States has evolved from being strangers at the turn of the century to becoming one of its most important defence partners today.
The Indian Ocean is undeniably one of the most strategically significant seas worldwide. Alfred Mahan, a highly influential strategic thinker from the United States, famously proclaimed that “Whoever controls the Indian Ocean will dominate Asia, and the destiny of the world will be decided on its waters.”
The importance of the Indian Ocean lies in its connection to five continents: Africa, Antarctica, Asia, Oceania, and Europe. Numerous crucial Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) traverse through this ocean, facilitating the movement of warships during historical conflicts like the Japanese-Russian War of 1905 and World War II. Additionally, these SLOCs play a vital role in enabling the navigation of commercial vessels carrying daily-use appliances and essential energy resources.
India holds a strategically advantageous position in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as it lies between crucial bottlenecks. To the west, the Straits of Hormuz and Bab-El-Mandeb are vital for oil product and merchandise trade. To the south, the “8-degree channel” between the Lakshadweep and Maldives archipelagos serves as a bottleneck for SLOCs connecting Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Lastly, to the east, India controls the Western gateway into the Malacca Strait, which is the primary connection point between the Indian and Pacific oceans.
The significance of India’s control over the Malacca Strait becomes apparent in the context of potential US-China confrontation. In the event of an unlikely invasion of Taiwan, the Malacca Strait would be one of the first regions to witness heightened tensions. This puts India’s foreign policy at a crossroads, particularly represented by the Andaman and Nicobar islands. These islands pose a dilemma for India: whether it should enter the conflict between China and the United States and, if so, which side it should support. India’s strategic location in the IOR, along with its control of the Malacca Strait, grants it the potential to shape the geopolitical landscape of the region.
New Delhi appears neutral between the US and China but is pragmatic in choosing sides. Understanding the strategic importance of islands in the Indian Ocean is crucial. Trade, energy supplies, and force projection play significant roles for both countries.
India’s Andaman and Nicobar archipelagos act as a barrier between the Andaman Sea and the Indian Ocean. They control access to the Malacca Strait’s western entrance. The islands have historical importance and form the basis of India’s maritime strategy.
India perceives China as a threat due to border disputes and challenges to India’s influence in the region. India and the US have mutual interests and do not have territorial conflicts.
Strategically, the islands serve as an outpost for India and its allies, enhance deterrence capabilities, and provide a springboard for expanding India’s influence towards Southeast Asia.
Despite the strategic importance of the islands, India’s Navy faces budgetary constraints and border disputes, hindering its maritime capabilities.
India aims to transform its navy into a blue water force but must invest in the fleet and logistical infrastructure. India’s potential influence in the region is significant, as emphasized by Mahan’s words.
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