President Joe Biden listens as he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in an expanded bilateral meeting with Israeli and U.S. government officials on Oct. 18, 2023, in Tel Aviv. Email Matt
With help from Eric Bazail-Eimil and Daniel Lippman
It’s not just Israel that wants Hamas defeated. The U.S. does, too — and it’ll support its ally’s military campaign until Israel says the job is done.
Since the militant group’s brutal Oct. 7 attack that killed 1,400 people in Israel, your host has talked to President JOE BIDEN’s team about what success looks like in this fight. A senior administration official answered that question succinctly: “Everyone agrees the goal is to defeat Hamas, but it’s up to Israel to define what ‘defeat’ is.”
Here’s what the official, granted anonymity to detail sensitive internal thinking, said in less pithy terms: Both the U.S. and Israel no longer want Hamas to threaten Israel from Gaza, the enclave it has ruled for more than 15 years. That would require the military defeat of the group so it can no longer operate.
The Biden administration has been pretty explicit about this point. “We are definitely having conversations about what the post-conflict environment ought to look like and what governance in Gaza ought to look like. One thing there’s absolutely no daylight on is: Hamas can’t be part of that equation. We can’t go back to October 6th,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters yesterday.
But the U.S. isn’t waging the war — Israel is. The administration doesn’t want to define a win for Israel and a loss for Hamas. That’s for Israel to dictate.
“We’re not going to say Israel has to accomplish these things on the ground, hitting individual metrics, which might be killing as many terrorists as possible or destroying these many rocket launchers,” the official said.
In effect, the U.S. will support Israel in whatever it wants to do to defend itself. Right now, that’s seeking the complete destruction of Hamas.
“There will be no more Hamas in Gaza. There will be no more security threat from Gaza on Israel,” Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT said Saturday.
That doesn’t mean the U.S. and Israel agree on all tactics. Biden is pushing Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU to accept longer humanitarian pauses — reportedly up to three days long — to more safely rescue hostages and flow aid into Gaza. Netanyahu has so far rejected those pleas, suggesting any prolonged break benefits Hamas. He is open to “tactical little pauses,” however, of roughly an hour’s length to alleviate localized suffering. As of this writing, about 10,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed, according to the Hamas-led health ministry, since Israel launched its ferocious retaliation, about a third of them children.
But the U.S. has shown no signs of wanting the war to end any time soon, as Alex and our colleagues have reported. They want it to continue as long as Israel deems it necessary to uproot Hamas from Gaza. “We will leave it up to Israel to determine when they reach that point and to declare victory,” said the official.
The Inbox
RECONNECTING WITH CHINA: Biden and Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING are preparing to announce that military-to-military communications between their countries will resume, three people familiar with the matter told Axios’ HANS NICHOLS and BETHANY ALLEN-EBRAHIMIAN.
It could be made public after the two leaders meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit later this month, though Beijing hasn’t confirmed Xi’s attendance. China suspended the communications last year after then-Speaker NANCY PELOSI traveled to Taiwan. Relations have also been fraught since the Chinese spy balloon incident in February.
PLAN FOR GAZA: Once its war is over, Israel still has a major issue: how to govern Gaza if Hamas is rooted out. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, for one, said Gaza should be unified with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority afterward.
“The only way to ensure that this crisis never happens again is to begin setting the conditions for durable peace and security and to frame our diplomatic efforts now with that in mind,” Blinken told reporters in Tokyo today. “The reality is that there may be a need for some transition period at the end of the conflict, but it is imperative that the Palestinian people be central to governance in Gaza and in the West Bank as well, and that, again, we don’t see a reoccupation.”
It’s the clearest indication from a top Biden administration official yet about what Washington believes should happen following the conflict. As Israeli troops continued their ground invasion into Gaza City today, Blinken called for diplomatic efforts to begin immediately.
His remarks may offer insight into ongoing conversations between Washington and its allies. U.S. lawmakers have said the possibility of a multinational force to keep peace in the enclave has been floated.
On Tuesday, however, Netanyahu said his country would oversee the security situation for “an indefinite period” without offering many details about his vision. That comment deeply concerned officials in the Biden administration, who want Netanyahu to avoid rhetoric that suggests an open-ended occupation of the Gaza Strip by Israel, U.S. officials told The Washington Post’s MICHAEL BIRNBAUM.
“It’s going to have to be a different set of governing principles” than what was in place before Hamas’ attack, NSC spokesperson Kirby said on CNN today. Israeli troops oversaw the territory for decades before they withdrew in 2005, and Hamas took control shortly after following an election.
As discussions about Gaza’s fate continue, the U.N. and some Western officials are worried that the massive waves of Palestinians leaving their homes due to Israeli airstrikes amount to forced displacement, The Wall Street Journal’s JARED MALSIN reports. Over 70 percent of the 2.3 million Gazans have had to leave their homes in the past month.
“The United States believes key elements should include no forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. Not now; not after the war,” Blinken also told reporters in Tokyo.
SUDAN CITIES SEIZED: The Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group in Sudan stormed cities in the country’s Darfur region today, committing mass killings in a regional capital and at a camp for displaced families, eyewitnesses told The Washington Post’s KATHARINE HOURELD and HAFIZ HAROUN.
The seizure of the cities marks the paramilitary group’s most significant breakthrough in its conflict against the Sudanese military since the war began seven months ago. It’s also a sign that more violence could be on the horizon, as troops that weren’t previously engaged in the conflict get drawn in.
In the past week, three of the western region’s five capital cities — Nyala, Geneina and Zalingei — have fallen to the RSF. The paramilitary group has also captured military bases, with soldiers fleeing across the border to Chad.
UKRAINE INCHES CLOSER TO EU: Ukraine and Moldova should start the process of becoming EU members, the European Commission said today — but the two countries must do more to speed up their reforms in key areas, our own JACOPO BARIGAZZI and VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA report.
The EU granted Ukraine candidate status last year and the recommendation that it begin formal negotiations on accession paves the way for the country, which is still fighting off Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s invasion, to become a member of the bloc.
“Ukraine has completed … well over 90 percent of the necessary steps that we set out last year in our report,” Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN said during a press conference, referring to Kyiv’s justice and anti-corruption reforms among others.
In its annual enlargement report, the EU executive also put off the start of accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina until after it fulfills a set of conditions, and assigned candidate status — the first major step toward EU accession — to Georgia.
PARTING WITH THE PANDAS: Today’s the dreaded day we knew would come but hoped would not — the National Zoo’s three beloved giant pandas took off on a flight from Dulles International Airport to China, marking a turning point in the struggling relationship between their home country and the United States.
You can take the pandas, Beijing, but you can’t take our everlasting love for them. Read more about the departure of China’s “cutest and most beloved diplomats” from our own ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL and ANDREW ZHANG.
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2024
WELCOME TO MIAMI: Armenian diaspora groups rallied in Miami ahead of tonight’s Republican presidential debate there as they hope to push GOP candidates to support tougher action on neighboring Azerbaijan in the wake of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, according to CBS’ ANNA MCALLISTER.
The rally took place on Tuesday outside the Adrienne Arsht Center, a concert hall in Miami that will serve as the debate venue. A crowd of Armenian Americans and their supporters held signs and chanted “Biden, Biden, where are you?”
One GOP hopeful even stopped by: tech entrepreneur VIVEK RAMASWAMY. Speaking at the rally, he said it’s “probably the most underappreciated atrocity in the world as we know it today that’s underappreciated by other Western American elites.”
It’s unlikely the conflict will get much air time compared to Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas, but Ramaswamy at least seems to have it on his mind.
Keystrokes
CURBING CHINESE TECH: A bipartisan pair of lawmakers are introducing legislation to limit the U.S. government’s access to technology from companies with ties to China and other foreign adversaries to prevent cyberattacks and theft of U.S. intellectual property, according to our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!).
Dubbed the CLARITY Act by intel-focused lawmakers Reps. ZACH NUNN (R-Iowa) and ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.), the House bill is meant to limit the government in using certain types of technology from companies with known ties to adversaries abroad that pose economic and national security risks. There is no bicameral support just yet.
More specifically, it would prohibit government agencies from acquiring or entering into contracts for equipment, systems or services that use Chinese blockchain technology — including network infrastructure, service providers and distributed ledger tech.
“This is where data is going to flow,” Nunn told MC. “The physical manifestation of blockchain would be a bank vault — this is where we’re going to store our most sensitive information.”
The Complex
BYE BYE, F-16S? The Air Force is considering replacing F-16 fighter jets with a “new, armed variant” of the Boeing T-7A Red Hawk called the F-7, Breaking Defense’s TIM MARTIN and MICHAEL MARROW write.
The service will prepare a request for information to detail the necessary requirements to industry, an Air Force official told Breaking Defense at the International Fighter Conference in Madrid. But the service hasn’t yet talked to Boeing about developing the jet, the official added.
On the Hill
DEMS PRESS BIDEN ON ISRAEL: The majority of the Senate Democratic Caucus today called on the Biden administration to support an Israeli strategy that would defeat Hamas while taking measures to protect Palestinian civilians and ask Israel about its post-war governance plan for Gaza.
After Washington’s wars in the Middle East over the past two decades, it’s critical that Israel “learn from the mistakes the United States made in our fight against terrorism by focusing on realistic and achievable military goals,” the senators wrote in a letter, and “abide by the laws of war, including the protection of civilians. Doing so also offers Israel the very best chance of success against Hamas in the days and weeks ahead.”
The senators asked the White House to inform them about the viability of Israel’s military strategy in Gaza and whether it prioritizes the release of hostages, whether there’s an achievable plan for governing Gaza when the Israeli military operation ends, and if Israel supports the conditions necessary to ultimately achieve a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The letter was led by Sens. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.), CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii), and JACK REED (D-R.I.).
REIN IN THE VIOLENCE: Meanwhile, Sen. JON OSSOFF (D-Ga.) led a group of senators in pressing the Biden administration to help prevent increasing settler violence in the West Bank.
Some 150 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since Oct. 7, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, close to the total number of Palestinians killed in the West Bank last year.
“If additional action to prevent these violent settler activities is not taken, we worry that civilians and U.S. national security interests will suffer grave harm,” Ossoff wrote in a letter to Biden today. “We urge your administration to enhance its diplomatic efforts to prevent further violence.”
Sens. MARK WARNER (D-Va.), JOHN HICKENLOOPER (D-Colo.); MARTIN HEINRICH (D-N.M.), TIM KAINE (D-Va.), Van Hollen and Reed also signed onto the letter.
CENSURED: The House late Tuesday passed a GOP measure to formally reprimand Rep. RASHIDA TLAIB (D-Mich.) over her outspoken criticism of Israel, with some Democrats joining Republicans to support the censure, our own NICHOLAS WU and DANIELLA DIAZ reported.
Rep. RICH McCORMICK (R-Ga.) had moved to censure Tlaib for what he called “promoting false narratives” about Hamas’ attack on Israel and characterized as “calling for the destruction of the state of Israel.” It’s a more targeted measure after a similar attempt to censure Tlaib failed last week.
Four Republicans voted against the measure and 22 Democrats for it, with the final tally coming to 234-188, as four lawmakers voted present.
Broadsides
INDIA RESTRICTS PROTESTS: India’s Kashmir region is typically vocally pro-Palestinian, but New Delhi authorities have barred its citizens from any protest in solidarity with the ethnonational group.
The measure is part of India’s attempt to preempt any protests against the government’s rule in Kashmir, The Associated Press’ AIJAZ HUSSAIN and SHEIKH SAALIQ report. Indian officials have also asked preachers to not mention the Israel-Hamas war in their sermons, residents and religious leaders told the AP.
India historically has close ties to both Israelis and Palestinians, but the recent move suggests that populist Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI’s foreign policy is shifting to favor one side.
STALEMATE ABOUT THE STALEMATE: Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. OKSANA MARKAROVA denied that she seemed to contradict Gen. VALERY ZALUZHNY’s comments last week when she said the war with Russia “is far from [a] stalemate.” (Zaluzhny had suggested the opposite.)
In response to a tweet by Alex pointing out the different remarks, Markarova said: “I actually responded that there is no contradiction between President Zelensky’s clear statement – there is no stalemate and we can win with additional capabilities Gen. Zaluzhny advocated for in his article.” She added: “We need to liberate our land and stop russian war crimes faster!”
Alex reiterated the differences between her remarks and those of Zaluzhny. Markarova has not responded via tweet or to a separate inquiry from NatSec Daily.
Read: Yeah, we did it: Ukraine admits car-bomb killing of pro-Russia politician, by Veronika.
Transitions
— DINA POWELL McCORMICK is joining the board of directors of Exxon Mobil. She is a former deputy national security adviser.
— VUK VELEBIT has started the Pupin Initiative, a think tank dedicated to bolstering ties between Serbia and the U.S. He most recently was an international strategy fellow at Schmidt Futures and previously worked in startups as well as consulting on security issues in the Western Balkans.
— COLLEEN MOORE will be joining the United Methodist Church’s general board of church and society as director of peace with justice. She’s also a board member at Peace Action New York State.
— SEAN KIRKPATRICK is stepping down as the head of the Pentagon office responsible for investigating UFOs in December after nearly 18 months on the job, he told Lara on Tuesday. He believes “the best thing that could come out of this job is to prove that there are aliens” — because the alternative, foreign interference, is a much bigger problem.
— On that note, Kirkpatrick’s deputy, TIM PHILLIPS, will lead the office in an acting role until the Pentagon hires a permanent replacement.
What to Read
— TOBIAS ELLWOOD, POLITICO: We need a Gaza plan
— JULIETTE KAYYEM, The Atlantic: Rashida Tlaib’s inflammatory language
— RYAN HASS and JUDE BLANCHETTE, Foreign Affairs: The right way to deter China from attacking Taiwan
Tomorrow Today
— The United States Institute of Peace, 9:30 a.m.: First in war, first in peace: U.S. military veterans as peacebuilders
— The Wilson Center’s Middle East Program, 10 a.m.: Hamas-Israel war: risks of escalation and impact on Lebanon
— The Center for a New American Security, 3 p.m.: Covering the conflict in Gaza
— New America and Arizona State University’s Future Security Initiative, 7 p.m.: Will the U.S. experience a devastating cyber attack and what can be done to protect our nation?
Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who considers it a win when we fail.
We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is a natural-born winner.
