Japan would likely come to Taiwan’s aid if a Chinese invasion provoked the same outpouring in international support as for Ukraine, the country’s minister of state for defence has said.
Questions of whether and how Tokyo would support Taiwan in the event of an attack by China have risen up alongside mounting tensions over the democratic island, which Beijing claims as its own and has refused to rule out invading.
Japan has pursued a policy of de facto strategic ambiguity, refusing to publicly clarify how or if it would respond to a Taiwan-related contingency.
But the Ukraine war has been a wake-up call to the possibility of a conflict breaking out on its doorstep, and the future of Taiwan is now foremost on Tokyo’s mind.
“If people all over the world have the will to support Taiwan, similar to the way they supported Ukraine when we witnessed Russia’s aggression, then, yes, it would be very possible that we will provide some kind of support to Taiwan,” said Ino Toshiro.
He conceded, however, that Tokyo had not yet decided what form that support would take.
“I am not sure at this juncture whether it is going to be defence equipment support or whether it is going to be logistics support,” he said, adding that it would need the consensus of the Japanese people.
Officials in Tokyo are acutely aware of the parallels between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Beijing’s increasingly bellicose behaviour over Taiwan and other islands it claims as its own.
“Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,” Fumio Kishida, the Japanese Prime Minister, said shortly after the war began.
China’s aggressive rearmament under Xi Jinping has also caused alarm. Tokyo is rushing to respond, with a 60 per cent hike in military spending planned over the next five years, including a radical overhaul of its national defence strategy.
“We consider it a threat that China is increasing its military budget and it is sharply increasing its assertiveness in the maritime zones. So far, we haven’t seen this level of threat before,” Mr Ino said.
But Japan has learned from President Putin’s disastrous invasion that it must boost its deterrence capabilities to prevent Chinese attempts to take Taiwan by force, while focusing on “constructive dialogue” with Beijing to avoid escalation in the first place, Mr Ino said.
“We think it is important to demonstrate that it will be difficult to invade Taiwan or make an aggressive move against Taiwan through military means,” he added.
At its westernmost point, Japan is just 70 miles from the Taiwanese coast. If Beijing attacked, any US response would likely come from the multiple military bases on the southern island of Okinawa that together host some 54,000 US troops.
The island of Okinawa would be the likely staging ground for any future US military operation in the area
Credit: Annabelle Chih
Japan would have to choose whether to give its approval to Washington, an ally and its main security partner, while weighing up the risks of Chinese retaliation against its own territory and people.
Japan would also have to decide whether to actively join the fight. It may also seek defence cooperation with important allies such as the US and Britain, Mr Ino added.
“If that kind of crisis is to occur, then obviously in order to deter any attempts to change the status quo by force we would like to request the maximum support.”
Pointing to concern over the growing assertiveness of regional neighbours such as Russia, China and North Korea, Mr Ino said: “The security environment of the world is becoming the most complicated in its history.”
While Japan’s political leaders pursue a policy of strategic ambiguity, the possibility of war hangs over those living on the islands stretching south towards Taiwan.
Already struggling with rising business costs, drought and devastating summer typhoons sweeping through his crops, the last thing sugar-cane farmer Nakazato Seihan needs is the threat of a potential conflict.
But the radar domes looming over the Air Self-Defense Force station some 200m from his home on the sleepy island of Miyako, in Japan’s Okinawa prefecture, are a stark reminder that his fields could one day end up on the front lines of a major conflict between China and the West.
Surrounded by turquoise waters and coral reefs, Miyako is a tourist paradise, but its strategic location about 300 miles from Taiwan and less than 100 nautical miles from the uninhabited Senkaku islands – the focus of a deepening territorial dispute between Tokyo and Beijing – have also turned it into a vital military outpost.
A former golf course on the tiny island that is home to 51,000 people has recently been converted into a Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force camp equipped with surface-to-ship missiles aimed at the Miyako Strait, a vital gateway for Chinese warships hoping to expand their reach into the Western Pacific.
Sugar-cane farmer Nakazato Seihan fears for his and fellow islanders’ safety on Okinawa
Credit: Annabelle Chih
Mr Nakazato, 70, fears that rather than offering islanders protection, such military facilities could invite war.
“Any place that has anything to do with force could and will be the target once conflict arises,” he said. “Why do forces with missiles have to be located in this peaceful rural community?”
Highly sensitive debate
Mr Nakazato’s question encapsulates the highly sensitive debate over how to build a more muscular defence policy within the limits of Japan’s pacifist constitution.
Bitter memories of Japan’s Second World War aggression run deep in Asia, while Japan’s public does not wish to be ensnared in a major conflict after more than 70 years of post-war peace.
The constitution, imposed by the US after the end of the conflict, prohibits Japan from maintaining the potential to wage war, permitting it to act only in self-defence. But a 2015 law, passed under then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, allows Japan to act militarily in “collective self-defence” if a close ally is attacked.
New national security and defence strategies, published last December, were viewed as a seismic shift in Tokyo’s approach to evolving geopolitical realities, including the widening gap between Japanese and Chinese military prowess.
Japan plans to invest heavily in long-range cruise and hypersonic missiles and to beef up its forces in the Nansei region, an island chain critical for the protection of Taiwan, and a natural barrier between the Chinese navy and the Pacific Ocean.
In line with Nato standards
Its new defence spending target, to reach 2 per cent of GDP by 2027, in line with Nato standards, will eventually push Japan’s annual defence budget to about £57 billion, the world’s biggest after the US and China.
“Back in 2005, the Japanese defence budget and the Chinese military budget were almost equal but now they spend four-to-five times more than us,” said Ken Jimbo, a professor at Tokyo’s Keio University.
“We are aiming to obtain enough capability to deny the Chinese the prospect of operational success in major scenarios such as Taiwan, the Senkakus and also in the South China Sea.”
The possibility of Japan joining the battle is key to deterring conflict over the Taiwan Strait.
The deployment of missiles with a 930-mile range in particular would be “a huge wild card for Chinese strategic thinking”, said Mr Jimbo.
Fears it could become warzone
In Okinawa, the site of pivotal but devastating Second World War battles and the likely staging ground for any future US military operation, there are fears the island could once again become a warzone.
Denny Tamaki, Okinawa’s governor, has long pushed for a reduction in the province’s burden in hosting US military bases, which have, at times, had a troubled relationship with the local population.
“Okinawa stands for only 0.6 per cent of the land of Japan but we have 76 per cent of the facilities used only by US forces. I think that is unusual,” Mr Tamaki said.
“Okinawan people are anxious because they are only seeing the effort to strengthen deterrence… we are worried that this is sending the wrong message to people in the Asia-Pacific region,” he added.
“I want the Japanese government to focus on the economy and regional exchanges to bring about peace.”
Missiles fell into water
In Okinawa’s outlying islands, others take a different view. When Beijing launched military drills last August to protest against the visit of Nancy Pelosi, then US house speaker, to Taipei, missiles fell into the waters near their shores.
Zakimi Kazuyuki, the mayor of Miyako, sees the benefit of bases on his island even if he is at pains to reassure the droves of visiting tourists.
“Seeing how Russia invaded Ukraine, we have a concern that China also shows its intent to unify Taiwan… so we always have to be prepared, we have to have a minimum readiness,” he said.
His office is already drawing up plans, alongside the government and other local authorities, for an emergency evacuation of islanders by air or sea. Contingency training exercises already began last year.
Meanwhile, tensions with China are impacting upon the local economy, he said. Local fishermen who once roamed the rich waters around the Senkaku islands no longer venture there for fear of harassment.
Miyako’s coast-guard station is one of two in the region that regularly patrols the disputed rocks, protecting Japan’s territorial waters and its fishing boats.
Sharp spike in Chinese vessels
Since 2008, it has recorded a sharp spike in sightings of Chinese coast-guard vessels in its contiguous zone (CZ) – an area up to 24 miles from Japanese shores where the country is legally allowed to enforce its territorial rights.
Since 2020, there have been more than 330 CZ sightings a year as Chinese vessels circle the zone.
For each incursion, the Japanese ask them by radio politely to leave. The Chinese contradict them, insisting they are sailing in their own territorial waters.
For now, the exchanges have been peaceful as the Japanese try to de-escalate and enforce international law.
“We have to be firm but calm,” said Takuya Fukumoto, the station chief. “We will not use an angry voice.”
