The curtains have fallen on Taiwan’s presidential election. William Lai from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has emerged victorious, while Hou Yu-ih from the Kuomintang (KMT) was the runner-up, followed by Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Oddly enough, in the days after the elections, Taiwanese media have been focused on Ko and the TPP. Why is everyone so concerned with this “third place finisher”?
Overcoming the odds
Before the elections, everyone knew that Hou and Ko needed to collaborate to secure a win. However, the “Blue–White coalition” fell apart before registration for the elections closed, resulting in a three-way battle. The KMT and the TPP became rivals who left the door open for cooperation, and there were talks among the voters on “who to sacrifice” in order to direct the votes to one single party to win the elections.
After the Blue–White split, Ko lacked the capacity for party mobilisation, especially since both major parties deliberately marginalised Ko, and the Blue and Green-friendly media outlets criticised Ko and froze him out.
Despite the absence of support from an “army” (through mobilising his supporters) and the mainstream media (cable and OTT channels), Ko was still able to overcome the odds and secure 26% of the votes. The TPP led by Ko was also able to win eight legislator-at-large seats.
With neither of the three parties holding a majority in the legislature, while Ko lost the presidential election, the TPP has become a key minority for both the KMT and the DPP.
The two major parties must now fight for the TPP’s cooperation. In the battle of ideological differences between the two, the DPP would have a tough time pushing policies while the KMT would find it hard to keep the DPP in check, if either side is not able to gain the backing of the TPP.
The charisma and capabilities of the “fighter” are certainly key reasons that young voters and the middle-class swing voters support the TPP and place their hopes on the party.
Support of the youth
When it comes to actual firepower for the TPP, besides Ko, Huang Kuo-chang is also one to note.
Huang is a former legislator and was labelled a “fighter” in the Legislative Yuan — Ko had said that “having one Huang is as good as having five men”. During the election, Ko fought for the presidency by advocating policies, while Huang showed his management capabilities through his work in exposing fraud. Both are now the two key pillars of the TPP.
Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) presidential candidate Ko Wen-je addresses supporters at the TPP headquarters in Xinzhuang in New Taipei City on 13 January 2024 with Huang Kuo-chang standing to Ko’s left. (I-Hwa Cheng/AFP)
The charisma and capabilities of the “fighter” are certainly key reasons that young voters and the middle-class swing voters support the TPP and place their hopes on the party.
With the conclusion of the elections, the two major parties are focused on securing the position of president of the Legislative Yuan, and the TPP has become a crucial piece — only the candidate put forth by the party that the TPP supports would have a chance to win. When parliamentary meetings begin, the TPP would also become the “key minority”; it would support the party that pushes for legislature reform, forcing the two main parties to seriously respond to the conditions the TPP raises.
Save for a small group of people who are still talking about who should be responsible for the consequences following the breaking down of the Blue–White coalition, most media outlets are now focused on how the TPP, formed just four years ago, was able to double the number of supporters and votes in such a short amount of time.
… “Ko did not lose”, and is instead shifting focus to the next presidential election in four years’ time.
The fact that Ko was able to attain such results even while caught between the KMT and the DPP, and also amid a severe lack of resources, has led to some saying that “Ko did not lose”, and is instead shifting focus to the next presidential election in four years’ time.
In comparison with the other two parties, only the TPP has room to grow because it has attracted young voters. This has led some to believe that even if Ko did not run for president this time around, Hou would still not be able to win because the young voters who support Ko would turn to vote for the DPP instead, and not the KMT.
Ko himself realised this — if he partnered with Ko but not as the presidential candidate, he would lose the young voters and ultimately still suffer a defeat.
New base of voters
Among the three candidates, Ko won the most support from the young, and is the most popular figure among the three on we-media and online outlets. In the absence of traditional mobilisation conditions, young and spontaneous forces created a great deal of momentum, which led to a massive turnout for the TPP during an election campaign at Ketagalan Boulevard on the eve of election day, to the shock of the two main parties.
Supporters of Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) presidential candidate Ko Wen-je wait for the results in the presidential election at the TPP headquarters in Xinzhuang in New Taipei City on 13 January 2024. (I-Hwa Cheng/AFP)
The KMT and the DPP both rely on their traditional base of supporters, and those that have supported them respectively in the past would by and large continue to do so. But at the same time, this has created a stalemate or obstinacy, making it impossible to attract the younger generation.
However, Ko’s rationality, transparency and amiable attitude has drawn him closer to the young, allowing them to feel a sense of participation and acceptance — this is why the TPP has become the most vibrant, refreshing, creative and passionate political party in this elections.
With an eye towards changing voter demographics over the next four years, the old among the two main parties will become history, while a generation of youths will become first-time voters.
Based on how this election played out, “the one who wins the support of the youth, wins the world”. This is a situation that plays to the strengths of the TPP, and will continue to pay off in the future. In that sense, the growth of its voter structure will be the most promising.
If Ko were to throw his hat in the race four years later, he and the TPP would remain the biggest threat to both the KMT and the DPP.
Related: Taiwanese commentator: How William Lai can be a good Taiwan president Will William Lai’s win spark war in the Taiwan Strait?
