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TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — An Academia Sinica scholar has concluded that based on years of surveys, the Taiwanese are increasingly finding the Taiwan Strait status quo untenable, and given a choice between ending it with independence or unification with China, the majority would choose the former.
Associate research fellow Wu Jieh-min (吳介民) said at a seminar on Monday (March 4) that the role of “suspicion and fear of the U.S.” in the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election is difficult to quantify but the long-term effect of the “China factor” is still present, reported CNA. Wu said that an Academia Sinica poll showed that more people believe that Taiwan will find it difficult to “maintain the status quo” in the future.
At the seminar held on Taiwan’s presidential election and U.S. and China factors influencing it at Japan’s Tokai University, Wu said those who deny or downplay the China impact on the 2024 election believe that compared with the China factor in 2016 and 2020, there seems to be a sense that concerns about Bejing in Taiwanese society did not have a decisive impact on voter behavior.
“If one extends the time dimension and observes the overall changes in public opinion in Taiwan, I hold an affirmative stance on the (influence of the) China factor,” Wu said. He said China played several significant roles in this election, including the tax and land investigations against the Foxconn Technology Group, which led to the withdrawal of Terry Gou (郭台銘) from the presidential race.
He said that China can have this kind of influence on Gou because he has a lot of assets in China. Although the Chinese government cannot designate “non-green camp” presidential candidates, it “can prevent certain people from being elected” and has a certain degree of veto power.
Wu pointed out that in recent years, China has stepped up its disinformation and cognitive warfare against Taiwan, including before and after former House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, the egg supply shortage in 2023, and claims that the Democratic Progressive Party government “provokes war.”
He mentioned that over the past eight years of polling Taiwanese voters, it can be observed that when posed with a “one-question” approach regarding the choice between maintaining the current status quo, pursuing independence, or seeking unification, over 80% choose the current status quo.
Wu said when Taiwanese are asked about choosing between “maintaining the current status quo and seeking independence,” “maintaining the current status quo and seeking unification,” or “permanently maintaining the current status,” he found that support for “unification” remains the lowest. However, there has been an increase in support for “maintaining the current status and seeking independence,” which, at one point after President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) election in 2020, surpassed the sentiment for “permanently maintaining the current status.”
In surveys inquiring about the public’s expectations for the future of Taiwan in terms of unification or independence, before 2019, there was a fluctuating balance between opinions expecting “unification” and “independence.” In 2020, the sentiment anticipating Taiwan’s future independence reached its highest point, with a difference of over 20 percentage points compared to those anticipating unification. However, this gap has gradually narrowed in the subsequent years.
In 2023, the public opinion that Taiwan will be independent in the future was slightly higher than that of unification, while maintaining the status quo ranked third.
Wu said that the most important finding is that most Taiwanese currently want to maintain the status quo, but the vast majority also believe that it is impossible to maintain it forever. They anticipate that Taiwan’s future will either involve independence or unification, between these two options, there is a higher preference for independence, Wu said.
The scholar also pointed out that the concerns about Taiwan being “unified” and pressure from China for unification are on the rise. Wu said that Chinese cognitive warfare remains “a headache” for the Taiwanese government and society.
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