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John J. Metzler
Two years following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, some 74 percent of Americans view the war in the Eastern European country as important to U.S. national interests, with 43 percent describing it as very important. Similar percentages see the war between Israel and Hamas (75 percent) and tensions between China and Taiwan (75 percent) as important to U.S. national interests as well, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in late January.
Pew recounted, “When asked how important each conflict is to them personally, 59 percent of Americans say the war between Russia and Ukraine is important to them.”
Viewing East Asian tensions, the survey cites about 76 percent of Democrats and 78 percent of Republicans seeing the Taiwan-China simmering conflict as significant to American national interests.
“Thirty percent of respondents view cross-strait tensions as “somewhat important” to U.S. national interests and 45 percent think they are “very important,” added the survey of 5,618 adults. However, 62 percent of Republicans view tensions between Taiwan and China as important to them personally, while 56 percent of Democrats hold this view.
Significantly, “Older Americans are more likely to find the Taiwan Strait issue to be important than younger ones, the poll showed. According to the survey, 88 percent of Americans over 65 years of age and 82 percent of Americans aged 50 to 64 see Taiwan-China tensions as important to U.S. national interests.”
Meanwhile, “69 percent of Americans between 30 and 49 years old, and 63 percent of Americans between 18 and 29 years old, view the conflict as important to national interests,” the survey showed.
According to Pew, “The survey revealed that 77 percent of Americans over 65 years old and 65 percent of Americans aged 50 to 64 see cross-strait tensions as important to them personally.”
Though the age disparity is not surprising given that older adults likely remember the long-standing cross Straits military tensions between a more aggressive mainland China and Taiwan, as compared with younger people seeing China through the lens of its largely commercial relationship with the United States over the past forty years.
Think about it for a moment; before the 1980s mainland China was viewed through the prism of Mao’s revolutionary rhetoric; Taiwan was the ethnic Chinese bastion standing up to the Beijing communists. But since the 1980s the stereotypical view of China has been mercantile, not Marxist. Taiwan was largely overlooked in the midst of the “China euphoria” where American corporations jockeyed for wider commercial relationships with the mainland.
However, the survey took an interesting turn beyond recording political interest in a topic; rather, it also cites somebody’s personal attachment or sentiment concerning a specific crisis.
Equally, the survey also covered other regions; Thus viewing the importance of each conflict to them personally, “Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say the Russia-Ukraine war is important to them (65 percent vs. 56 percent), while Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say this about China-Taiwan tensions (62 percent vs. 56 percent).” The Survey adds, “Roughly equal shares of Democrats (67 percent) and Republicans (66 percent) say the Israel-Hamas war is personally important to them.”
Significantly, the survey cites that while older Americans view the importance of both the Ukraine conflict and Taiwan tensions, indeed for the most part 58 percent of people under 30 are more focused on the Israel-Hamas war.
Tragically, a sizable minority inside the Democrat party has embraced the Hamas political narrative in the wake of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks on Israel and the ensuing hostage crisis; many younger citizens have followed suit joining pro-Palestinian marches.
In the survey, the respondents are reflecting on a string of core crises that confront Washington policymakers. Ukraine, while initially dismembered by Russia in 2014 to very little Western pushback, was invaded by Vladimir Putin’s military in 2022. The smoldering Mideast conflict, dormant for a few years, reignited in October with the massive Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel. Though the Taiwan Strait standoff between communist China and Taiwan has been a fixture for generations, it’s clearly framed by Beijing’s continuing military threats against the democratic self-ruled island.
Naturally, this poll’s scope and methodology reflects people’s serious concerns but does not go to the next step; namely what to do and how to respond to these individual crises. For example, add the element of Ukrainian military aid, and the numbers would certainly shift.
People are now genuinely tuned into key global crises but as to specific solutions, there’s far less common ground.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of “Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations; Germany, Korea, China.”
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