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Ahn Ho-young
An important election was held in Taiwan in Janaury. Lai Ching-te was elected as the new president. His candidacy was the subject of intense negative campaigning by China, while the United States supported him. His election is worried to lead to aggravated military and economic pressures by China, raising tension in Northeast Asia and bringing a negative impact upon the Republic of Korea. I recently participated in a debate on the election with a group of scholars and former diplomats who have long followed China-related issues. I wish to share some of the highlights of the debate.
The first issue that attracted my attention was Lai’s position on the inter-strait relations between China and Taiwan. Lai used to be the leader of the so-called New Tide Faction in his Democratic Progressive Party, strongly supporting Taiwan’s independence. However, after he was appointed as a candidate, he made hard efforts to dilute his past position on the issue. In a nutshell, he tried hard to say that his position on independence is not too different from that of President Tsai Ing-wen’s, which is understood as pro-status quo.
Such efforts of Lai must be closely observed by Beijing and Washington. Washington supports such change in Lai’s position because it would help to reduce tension in the inter-strait relations. On the other hand, the relations would continue to remain tense and could lead to armed conflict for many reasons: Almost 80 percent of people in Taiwan identify themselves as “Taiwanese” in recent opinion polls; Chinese President Xi Jinping’s intense fixation on unification with Taiwan, even through military means; and the difficulty in predicting Donald Trump’s Taiwan-related actions were he to be elected as U.S. president again.
Another important issue was the possibility of heightened Chinese military pressure on Taiwan. When U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, China put up an unprecedentedly large military exercise around Taiwan. Since then, China has willfully crossed the median line in the strait and routinely held greater military activity around Taiwan. China is also strengthening diplomatic isolation of Taiwan and gray zone tactics like shifting the flight path of its commercial flights further east. On top of all these actions, would China raise the tension higher, for example, by imposing a naval blockade around Taiwan?
A large number of participants thought that China would stop short of that for many reasons: both Beijing and Washington are now trying to stabilize the bilateral relations between the two; Lai is cautiously lowering his pro-independence posture; and China cannot afford higher instability in the strait, when it has to focus on economic difficulties at home.
At the same time, many participants were of the view that Seoul must prepare for a possible military conflict in the strait. It will not be an option for South Korea to engage directly because, were a conflict to flare up in the strait, there will be a high likelihood of military conflict on the Korean Peninsula as well. However, since there’s a high chance that the U.S. will be engaged in case of a military conflict in the strait, Korea should think and prepare about how to help with the U.S. efforts.
The third set of issues discussed was the possibility of China’s increased economic pressure. China openly supported the Nationalist Party’s candidate for president, and took measures not consistent with the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement with Taiwan. China, for example, suspended tariff concessions to a large number of products imported from Taiwan. Would China take additional measures, like raising tariffs for semiconductors from Taiwan? Such a measure would be far more painful for Taiwan than tariffs on agricultural products. However, the chance of such a measure was not deemed high when TSMC provides more than 50 percent of system semiconductors for the world market.
In this connection, it was noted that Lai has often expressed a wish to strengthen economic relations with South Korea, especially in efforts to secure a supply chain in the increasingly fragmented world market. A large number of participants were of the view that South Korea and Taiwan should further strengthen economic cooperation, including in the semiconductor sector. Several of them took note of the fact that South Korea’s Guideline on Exchanges and Cooperation with Taiwan was last amended in 1998 and needs to be reviewed, recognizing the political and economic changes in the past several decades.
We often talk about the importance of heeding “Gray Rhinos” and “Black Swans” ahead of us. Conflict in the strait, were it to happen, will definitely belong to such categories of events for South Korea in view of its security and economic implications. There are ample reasons why we must join efforts to maintain peace and stability along the strait.
Ahn Ho-young is chair professor at the Kyungnam University. He served as ambassador to the U.S. and vice foreign minister.
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