Taipei, Dec. 21 (CNA) Beijing’s decision to suspend tariff concessions on selected Taiwanese products appears to be an instance of political maneuvering, a scholar argued on Thursday, suggesting a likely increase in pressure in the lead-up to the January elections.
Discussing the ramifications of China’s latest actions, Chang Hong-yuan (張弘遠), an expert in cross-Taiwan Strait relations, told CNA that China appears to be aiming to sway voters, especially those within the industrial and business sectors, through economic and trade coercion.
His comments followed an announcement by Chinese customs authorities earlier in the day that, effective Jan. 1, 2024, a total of 12 chemical products imported from Taiwan will no longer be eligible for tariff reductions that were granted under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), a cross-strait pact, signed in 2010, that was intended to lower commercial barriers.
Beijing is seeking to caution that “electing the wrong person” in the presidential election comes with a price, argued Chang, an associate professor at Chihlee University of Technology in New Taipei.
The statement from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) issued around noon on Thursday said that related negotiations could begin immediately based on the “1992 consensus,” which also highlights the political nature of the decision, he said.
Following Beijing’s announcement on halting the tariff reduction, Zhu Fenglian (朱鳳蓮), a spokesperson for the TAO, said in a statement that based on the “1992 consensus,” both sides of the Taiwan Strait can engage in negotiations and address all economic and trade issues.
In addition, Chang noted that China has exerted intensifying pressure in sync with Taiwan’s election timeline, showing “a sense of precision” when picking dates to exert pressure as the elections draw closer.
For example, he said, the announcement on Dec. 15 of the results of the investigation into trade barriers introduced by Taiwan coincided with the unveiling of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
Dec. 15: Taiwan wants trade disputes with China to be handled under WTO framework
According to the scholar, following Wednesday’s policy presentation by the presidential candidates, Beijing’s announcement of the suspension of tariff preferential treatment on these 12 products sends a clear message from the Chinese Communist Party: “We will make Taiwan’s people aware of our stance.”
Chang said he does not discount the possibility of further economic and trade coercion. What matters now, however, is how Taiwan maintains investor confidence amid such actions, he said.
Also on Thursday, Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), a China expert, argued that the tariff concessions suspension by Beijing echoes frequent assertions by the TAO: “Taiwan faces a choice between peace and war, prosperity and decline.”
Beijing seeks to underscore the essential link between political mutual trust, the economy and trade, by addressing economic and trade issues,” the associate professor at Tamkang University said.
From Beijing’s current standpoint, the foundation of political mutual trust is the “1992 consensus,” he said.
The consensus was a tacit understanding reached in 1992 between the then KMT government of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the Chinese government. It has been consistently interpreted by the opposition Kuomintang as an acknowledgment by both sides that there is only “one China,” with each side free to interpret what “China” means.
However, Beijing has never publicly recognized the second part of the KMT’s interpretation.
Dec. 19: DPP’s VP candidate challenges applicability of ‘1992 consensus’
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party has never acknowledged the “1992 consensus,” arguing that Beijing does not recognize the Republic of China and that acceptance of the consensus would imply agreement with China’s claim over Taiwan.
Beijing considers Taipei’s acceptance of the “1992 consensus” a prerequisite for dialogue between the two sides and has cut off all communications with Taipei since the DPP came to power in 2016.
Looking ahead, Chang Wu-ueh said he does not think Beijing will suspend the ECFA, because that is not Beijing’s preferred outcome.
He explained that China sees bolstering cross-strait economic and trade as the most powerful tool to suppress and contain “Taiwan’s separation,” citing a policy document published by Beijing in 1991.
Based on this, China does not want cross-strait economic and trade decoupling, he said.
