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TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — A classic image of rural Taiwan, with farmers in conical straw hats planting rice in the field and water buffalo nearby, is fading into history.
In 2016, the then-director of the Farmers’ Service Department under the Council of Agriculture revealed that the average age of part-time and full-time farmers was 62. Today, with little influx of young farmers, the average age likely hovers around 70.
Farm household numbers started declining in 2021, a trend set to accelerate. The farms will pass on to a generation with little knowledge or inclination for agriculture.
This scenario will likely result in farms being subcontracted to firms with expertise, utilizing robots and workers from other countries. The timeless image of farmers working the fields will be replaced.
Japan is already experiencing a similar trend, where farm ministry estimates suggest a significant drop in the number of farm workers, from 1.23 million in 2022 to a quarter of that in the next two decades. Automation advocates warn that without change, Japanese agriculture is at risk of collapse, leaving people vulnerable in unexpected situations like wars.
Immigration needed
As of January’s end, 17,618 foreign workers were officially employed in Taiwan’s agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing sectors. To compensate for the shrinking workforce, foreign students are offered scholarships to study agriculture in Taiwan.
As previously discussed, the birthrate decline over 40 years has left only around 900,000 people in the 0-4 age bracket, compared to 2.2 million aged 40-44. The working-age-to-dependent ratio, which was 14.8:1 in 1980, fell to 4:1 in 2022 and is projected to be 2.7:1 in 2030, and a startling 1.1:1 in 2070.
Despite an expected spike in the Year of the Dragon, the 2021 fertility rate was 0.98%, well below the 2.1% needed for population stability. To recover from the population loss, couples would need to have significantly more children, possibly five or six, which would still take decades to impact the workforce.
Taiwan is grappling with a future marked by critical labor and consumer shortages. The country is compelled to undergo significant changes in both its society and economy.
There are two main solutions to the labor shortage: Immigration and technology. Taiwan has already been leveraging both to address the declining workforce.
Future foreign inroads
Taiwan initiated labor imports in the early 1990s, initially to maintain competitiveness for manufacturers facing rising local labor costs. Immigration, aimed at resolving labor shortages across all industries, is now unavoidable. Agriculture will be particularly affected, but the entire spectrum, from high-tech to low-skilled jobs, is feeling the impact.
By the end of 2023, there were 851,932 foreign residents in Taiwan. At the end of January, 756,419 were classified as foreign workers, with 519,318 working in productive industries like agriculture, manufacturing, and construction, and 237,061 in social welfare as nursing workers or home maids. Foreign workers are mainly sourced from Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia, with India set to join soon. Foreign residents now outnumber the Indigenous population.
With a demographic decline and workforce retirements looming, immigration is poised to increase significantly. Efforts to encourage women and retirees to rejoin the workforce will have limited impact.
Foreign residents could soon surpass 1 million and potentially reach several million in the next decade or two, inevitably shaping and enriching Taiwan’s society and culture.
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