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What Taiwan’s Election Means for Geopolitics
Will it reshape cross-strait relations?
Confetti falls as Taiwanese President-elect Lai Ching-te speaks to supporters at a victory rally in Taipei.
January 28, 2024, 10:00 AM
Since Lai Ching-te was elected president of Taiwan on Jan. 13, foreign-policy analysts have engaged in heated debate over what the election means for geopolitics. Like Taiwan’s current president, Lai rejects China’s sovereignty claims over the island. Beijing’s response has so far been muted, as FP’s James Palmer writes, but many experts have serious concerns over whether China will retaliate—and how that might affect Taiwan, the United States, and global democracy.
Since Lai Ching-te was elected president of Taiwan on Jan. 13, foreign-policy analysts have engaged in heated debate over what the election means for geopolitics. Like Taiwan’s current president, Lai rejects China’s sovereignty claims over the island. Beijing’s response has so far been muted, as FP’s James Palmer writes, but many experts have serious concerns over whether China will retaliate—and how that might affect Taiwan, the United States, and global democracy.
The essays below examine the possible implications of Taiwan’s election on everything from cross-strait relations to Washington’s policy of strategic ambiguity.
U.S. President Joe Biden at a summit at NATO headquarters in Brussels on June 14, 2021.Stephanie Lecocq/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
America’s Strategy of Ambiguity Is Ending Now
The United States has expanded its security commitments around the world—and the bill is coming due, FP’s James Crabtree writes.
Taiwan’s president-elect, Lai Ching-te, stands beside his running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, during a rally outside the headquarters of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taipei after Lai won the election on Jan. 13.Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP
Will Taiwan’s Next President Be the China Hawk Washington Wants?
The Biden administration hopes Lai Ching-te will take the threat of a cross-strait invasion as seriously as the U.S. does, FP’s Jack Detsch reports.
Supporters of Taiwanese President-elect Lai Ching-te wait for him to speak at the headquarters of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taipei, Taiwan, on Jan. 13.Annice Lyn/Getty Images
How Can Taiwan Manage an Angry China?
A new president means another round of reaction from Beijing, according to ChinaFile contributors.
Television screens in a Taipei shop show the live vote tally as the official counting gets underway in Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13.Annabelle Chih/Getty Images
How China Exploited Taiwan’s Election—and What It Could Do Next
Beijing has long used its backyard as a testing ground for foreign influence operations, FP’s Rishi Iyengar writes.
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi participates in the first hearing of the U.S. House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party in Washington on Feb. 28, 2023.Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Why Washington Wants Americans to Care About Taiwan
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi discusses U.S. involvement in conflicts abroad with FP’s Ravi Agrawal.
Chloe Hadavas is an associate editor at Foreign Policy. Twitter: @Hadavas
