The rally is just one of dozens of noisy political gatherings taking place across the island in the weeks leading up to polling, which opens at 8am (11am AEDT) on Saturday.
Tens of thousands of people, many middle-aged and older, take to the streets to wave banners furiously and scream political slogans until they are hoarse. The carnival atmosphere is a visible display of an extraordinary passion for politics in what is a relatively young democracy.
Voters in Taiwan do not take their freedom to elect their leaders for granted. The island only introduced direct presidential elections in 1992 and voter turnout can be as high as 75 per cent, even though it is not compulsory and people cannot cast ballots remotely. Taiwanese are acutely aware that Beijing would snatch their democracy away in a heartbeat given half the chance.
“For us, the election is a choice between China and the United States. It is a sad choice in a way. If the DPP loses, maybe I will migrate to Australia,” says Paul Huang, a 35-year-old doctor, as he steers his family through the banner-waving crowds at Thursday night’s rally.
Polling suggests Lai is the frontrunner in Saturday’s election – which takes place every four years – to pick a new leader and parliament. He has pledged to continue President Tsai Ing-wen’s disciplined approach of standing up to China and protecting the island’s sovereignty without crossing a line and pushing for full independence, which could prompt Beijing to attempt what most Western strategists say would be a risky effort to take Taiwan by force.
While the DPP still commands unprecedented popularity for a party that has been in power for eight years, voters are also frustrated with the same economic issues that bother Australians, such as housing affordability and inflation, and many want change.
The main opposition Kuomintang has also framed the poll as a choice between war and peace. It’s assuring voters it can reduce the risk of a war with China without selling out Taiwan’s interests.
KMT’s leader, a tough-talking former police chief named Hou Yu-ih, says Lai – who has previously made comments suggesting he supports full independence – will incite Beijing. He says Taiwan is already “on the brink” of war.
The reality is, though, that while their rhetoric on China is different, the three main parties’ policies on how to deal with their more powerful neighbour are now broadly the same. They all support ramping up defence spending to deter Beijing from attacking, reopening dialogue with China, and maintaining the so-called “status quo”, which is Taiwan’s unique diplomatic halfway house that allows it to govern itself as long as it does not declare full independence from China.
“Whoever is in power, the substance of their china policy differs little. Taiwanese politicians feel it is to their own advantage in election campaigns to play up the differences in their China policies,” says Michael Reilly, Britain’s former representative to Taiwan.
Economic realities have also changed the political mood in Taiwan since the last presidential and parliamentary elections. Young voters in particular are concerned about housing affordability, declining wages and inflation.
This has helped the new force in Taiwanese politics, Ko Wen-je’s TPP. The groundswell of support from the likes of those in queues for selfies on Thursday nights suggests the TPP is likely to be influential in the new parliament even if its candidate does not win the presidency.
The DPP is expected to lose its majority in the 113-seat parliament, meaning it could be forced to negotiate with Ko on critical policies such as budgets and defence spending.
“On the economic side, whichever political party wins power, Taiwan will continue to strengthen economic and trade ties with the United States and like-minded partners,” says Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist who teaches in the Australia National University’s Taiwan studies program.
While the result directly affects 23 million people, the record number of foreign journalists in the capital Taipei this week suggests the implications of the election has taken on a bigger global perspective than usual.
The election is the first of dozens of key global polls taking place in the world’s largest democracies this year and will be followed by Indonesia, India and the US.
China’s long shadow is viewed as a test of an authoritarian government’s ability to upset the rules-based world order at a time when conflicts are raging in Europe and the Middle East. The outcome will have a significant bearing on US-China relations, and potentially Australia’s interests in the region.
“If Vice-President William Lai wins Taiwan’s presidential election, Beijing will take aggressive military and economic steps to discourage his pro-independence ambitions. Policymakers in Washington will respond with a show of support for Taiwan,” consulting firm Eurasia Group wrote in its report on the world’s top geopolitical risks in 2024, released this week.
“China’s drive to assert its regional interests will continue to produce close encounters with US military assets in or above the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.”
On the streets in Taipei and across Taiwan, most are sanguine when quizzed on the geopolitics. While Washington intelligence and security circles buzz with estimates of the PLA power and when Xi might feel sufficiently empowered to launch an invasion, the Taiwanese have been living with this threat for decades.
Protesters against the Chinese Communist Party dress up to depict authoritarian China and Winnie the Pooh representing Xi Jinping, dressed as an emperor. AP
While few believe a DPP victory will presage an invasion, China will likely express its displeasure in the form of ramped up sea and air incursions, economic sanctions and some scary rhetoric. The mood is jittery.
Civil defence classes are popular and alarms are part of daily life. On Tuesday, as Foreign Minister Joseph Wu spoke to foreign media, an alert went out saying China had launched a missile at Taiwan. Wu quickly reassured the reporters that Beijing had launched a satellite, not a missile. It later emerged the English translation of the alert – which was beamed out to mobile phones across the nation – had got it wrong.
While there was no missile, China has waged a campaign of misinformation and economic sanctions to try and influence the outcome of the election. Some believe the satellite-carrying rocket was a riposte to a report suggesting it has become less likely Xi will contemplate military action against Taiwan due to serious corruption within his military, and at a time when his economy is floundering.
Willy Lam, a senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation, believes in the long term, Xi is committed. “They will certainly go through the motions of launching provocative gestures, but the real invasion won’t happen this year. Xi Jinping is still committed to doing it, but probably not in the coming two to three years,” he says.
The other significant wildcard is the US elections this year. Many in Taiwan fear if the unpredictable Donald Trump wins office, he might soften Washington’s approach to protecting Taiwan’s sovereignty and give Beijing and opportunity to move.
“Trump is the ultimate wildcard. He is unpredictable, if anything else. What he does could have more bearing on Taiwan’s future than whoever is elected this weekend,” a source with connections to the Taiwan government says.
