Los Angeles, Dec. 11 (CNA) Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election will have much less of an impact on United States policy on China and Taiwan than will the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a scholar specializing in U.S.-China relations indicated.
The election in Taiwan in January 2024 has been seen as an inflection point with broad implications for Taiwan, China, and the U.S., Robert Sutter, a professor of practice of international affairs at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., wrote in an article in The Diplomat on Monday.
Regardless of who wins, however, there will be continuity in U.S. policy toward Taiwan and China because of strong momentum in the U.S. to counter serious challenges posed by China and Taiwan’s important role in countering those challenges, Sutter argued.
Defending the United States against adverse Chinese practices has remained at the top of U.S. security, economic, and governance priorities for six years, Sutter indicated, and those efforts have received broad approval in pubic opinion and American media.
There are two challenges that pose especially dangerous threats to America’s national security and well-being — China’s effort to undermine U.S. power and influence in Asia and Beijing’s quest for dominance in the high-technology industries of the future, he wrote.
Such dominance would make the U.S. subservient to China economically, and because such technology is essential to modern national security, militarily as well, he said.
Taiwan, Sutter wrote, has a prominent role in handling those challenges and countering China’s ambitions.
“Taiwan’s key location and its role in the Indo-Pacific region are highly valued by U.S. policymakers seeking to counter adverse Chinese advances,” he wrote.
In addition, Taiwan’s high technology industries “represent a critical element in U.S. economic competition with Beijing,” and its political democracy, free market economy, and respect for international norms all support U.S. leaders in dealing with China’s challenges, Sutter argued.
With Beijing applying heavy military, diplomatic and economic pressure on Taiwan, the U.S. government has been increasing its military and diplomatic support for Taiwan, and that should not change regardless of the outcome of Taiwan’s election, he said.
If Lai Ching-te (賴清德), the presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, were to win the election, he is widely predicted to continue the close relations with the U.S. developed by outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), Sutter said.
As for Lai’s main opponent, Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) of the Kuomintang (KMT), which maintains regular contacts with the Chinese Communist Party, he is identified with policies seeking to engage more closely with Beijing, according to Sutter.
“Nonetheless, public opinion in Taiwan has compelled Hou to play down the KMT’s past adherence to policies in line with Beijing’s view of one China,” Sutter wrote.
“Hou and his associates have worked hard to reassure U.S. officials and opinion leaders that his rule would continue cooperation with U.S. efforts to build resiliency in Taiwan to deter a Chinese attack.”
Sutter said Hou might not move as aggressively to strengthen Taiwan’s military as Lai, which could earn him criticism from the U.S. Congress, but given Taiwan’s important role, the Biden government would be unlikely to turn against Hou in such circumstances.
Instead of Taiwan’s election, the U.S. presidential election in November 2024 will likely be far more consequential to America’s current support for Taiwan and hardening against China, Sutter contended.
He said that if Biden were replaced by Donald Trump or some other candidate with strong “America First” leanings, it could undermine the efforts made to counter China in recent years.
“As president, Trump’s erratic behavior toward China and very disruptive behavior toward allies undermined the effectiveness of that administration’s efforts to defend the United States from China’s challenges,” Sutter wrote.
“Since the president has enormous powers in the conduct of U.S. foreign policy, a repeat of Trump’s behavior in 2025 would likely work to the advantage of Beijing and the loss of the United States and its allies and partners, especially Taiwan,” he argued.
