The election could reshape international affairs.
Tomorrow is Election Day in Taiwan, where the selection of a new president will shape the island’s relationship with China — and, by extension, shape international affairs.
Today’s newsletter offers a guide. We know that many readers have paid little if any attention to the campaign, but it’s been fascinating and has implications for the competition over global influence between the U.S. and China.
Background
The fate of Taiwan is one of the big unknowns of the 2020s. It is now a thriving democracy of around 23 million people, with average annual income higher than in parts of Europe. Many countries, including the U.S., treat it almost as an independent nation without formally recognizing it as such. These countries instead maintain the diplomatic fiction that there is “one China,” including both mainland China and Taiwan.
Xi Jinping, China’s president, wants to reunify the two and absorb Taiwan in coming years, U.S. officials believe. Xi’s increasing bellicosity has raised fears that China will start a war. Official U.S. policy — known as strategic ambiguity — is to remain vague about how it would respond if China invaded. But President Biden has said publicly that the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s aid.
When foreign policy experts worry about how a world war might start, they often put Taiwan at the top of the list. (Our colleague Edward Wong told the back story on an episode of “The Daily” last year.)
The candidates
Tomorrow’s presidential election includes three candidates, one of whom — Lai Ching-te, the favorite and the current vice president — China would clearly like to see lose. Lai’s party, the Democratic Progressive Party, has historically favored independence. (Here’s a new Times story on the party.)
During the campaign, Chinese officials have called Lai a “destroyer of peace” and have spread disinformation about him, as Nicholas Kristof of Times Opinion has written. This propaganda sometimes suggests Lai is an American puppet. China has also imposed new trade sanctions on Taiwan and has said Lai’s election could cause a recession, The Economist noted.
Most of these Chinese claims are dubious. Lai doesn’t represent a break with current Taiwanese policy, given that his party has run the island for the past eight years. If anything, he has campaigned on a relatively moderate message, trying to appeal both to voters who favor full independence and to those who prefer the current situation. Yesterday, he said he would “maintain the status quo” to “protect the country’s survival and development.”
Lai remains the favorite to win. He has led in almost every poll. But the race has recently narrowed and appears close.
Hou Yu-ihCredit…Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
Both of the other candidates are more friendly toward China, and polls suggest voters may be coalescing around one of the two — Hou Yu-ih, a mayor and former police chief, who’s in the Kuomintang. (For history buffs: Yes, there is an irony in the Kuomintang’s friendliness to China, given that it was the political party that ruled China before losing a civil war to the Communists in the 1940s and fleeing to Taiwan.)
Hou has also argued that Lai’s election would risk war with China. Hou, by contrast, has promised both to bolster Taiwan’s military and to build closer ties with Beijing.
Ko Wen-jeCredit…Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
The third candidate is Ko Wen-je, a former surgeon who won the Taipei mayor’s race in 2014 despite having no prior political experience. Ko, in 2019, founded the Taiwan People’s Party, which has tried to channel disaffection with the two main parties. He has portrayed himself as an effective technocrat.
The issues
One striking part of the campaign is that it has often revolved around kitchen-table issues rather than Taiwan’s relationship with China.
“China remains a major theme, but not as much as four years ago,” said our colleague Amy Chang Chien, who’s covering the campaign from Taiwan. “The main themes of the election this year are more about bread-and-butter issues, like high housing prices and slow income increases.”
Younger voters seem especially disillusioned, as Amy has written. Many are now undecided, and they could swing the election. (The same happens to be true in the U.S. this year.) Taiwan will also be choosing members of its legislature tomorrow, and experts say that divided government is a plausible outcome.
The economic concerns are a weakness for Lai, because he is the sitting vice president. His biggest advantage, on the other hand, may be China’s recent actions. It has become more threatening toward Taiwan, including by sending airplanes, balloons and a satellite near the island. China also continues to crack down on Hong Kong, an area Beijing once promised to grant partial autonomy.
For any Taiwanese wondering whether there is any middle ground between remaining separate from China and becoming entirely controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, Hong Kong’s experience suggests that the answer is no.
More on the election
“Frozen garlic!”: Get a glimpse of Taiwan’s loud, proud version of democracy.
A counterintuitive take: Jason Willick, a Washington Post columnist, argues that a Kuomintang upset would reduce tensions with China and give Taiwan and the U.S. more time to build military defenses that could prevent an invasion.
THE LATEST NEWS
Yemen Airstrikes
The U.S. and its allies struck more than a dozen targets in Yemen controlled by the Houthis, an Iran-backed militia that has attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea.
The Red Sea attacks, which the Houthis said were a protest against Israel’s war in Gaza, have disrupted supply chains.
The American-led response is an expansion of the war in the Middle East. The Houthis have vowed to retaliate.
The U.S. said that the strikes were meant to damage the Houthis’ military capabilities. Read more about the rebel group and why the U.S. is attacking it.
President Biden said he “will not hesitate” to act further if the Houthis continue targeting Red Sea shipping. Read his full statement.
More on the War
At the world’s top court, Israel’s lawyers are responding to claims that the country intends to commit genocide against the Palestinians.
The accusation of genocide is “imbued with profound symbolism for both Israelis and Palestinians,” The Times’s Patrick Kingsley writes.
A group of students sued Harvard, calling it a “bastion” of antisemitism.
2024 Election
Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are campaigning across Iowa in their fight for second in Monday’s caucuses.
Temperatures in Iowa for the caucuses are forecast to be below zero. Read more about the severe weather coming for the Midwest and South.
People are mocking DeSantis for an awkward handshake with his wife.
Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, a moderate Republican who once mocked Trump as “crazy,” pledged to support him if he becomes the party’s nominee.
Policy jargon, empathy and Lee Greenwood: Explore the candidates’ distinctive styles on the campaign stage.
More Politics
Hard-line House Republicans are pressuring Speaker Mike Johnson to renege on his spending deal with Democrats, demanding deeper cuts. Johnson said he’s considering it.
Trump abruptly spoke on the last day of his civil fraud trial in Manhattan, insulting the judge and defending himself. His legal troubles are giving him a campaign platform.
Hunter Biden pleaded not guilty in federal court to charges of evading taxes on income from foreign businesses.
The Pentagon’s inspector general will investigate the delayed disclosure of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization.
Other Big Stories
The U.N. estimates that nearly a quarter of humanity lived under drought in the last two years.
Claims of dog illnesses linked to Purina’s pet food caused a stir on TikTok, forcing the company to rebut the rumors.
Inflation continued to slow at the end of 2023, new data shows.
Opinions
A shadow war is raging around Trump among allies hoping to shape his administration — and the country — if he wins, Sam Adler-Bell writes.
The West is good at recognizing genocide in retrospect. We shouldn’t turn away from the charge that it’s happening now in Gaza, Megan Stack writes.
Here are columns by Paul Krugman on a market crash, Michelle Goldberg on evangelicals and Bret Stephens on Donald Trump.
MORNING READS
South Fork Wind FarmCredit…Joe Buglewicz for The New York Times
Sea breeze: A groundbreaking wind farm has begun generating power for New York. See how it was built.
“I can just chill”: The things that make January dreary are what its fans love.
Clown cardio: Fitness and improv unite to form one wacky workout in — where else? — Los Angeles.
Lives Lived: Bud Harrelson wasn’t much of a hitter over his professional baseball career. But he was an outstanding shortstop, and in 1969 helped the Mets win their first World Series. He died at 79.
SPORTS
An exit: Bill Belichick, the most accomplished coach in N.F.L. history, parted ways with the Patriots after 24 seasons and six Super Bowl wins. The partnership unraveled quickly.
ESPN scandal: For years, the sports media behemoth submitted fake names to earn more Emmy awards.
Alabama: The school has selected three finalists in its search to replace football coach Nick Saban. An announcement could come as early as today.
Roll Tide: Alabama football has “been a machine of astonishing consistency, humming for nearly two decades at peak performance,” The Times’s Campbell Robertson writes.
ARTS AND IDEAS
“Jules.”Credit…Linda Kallerus/Bleecker Street
Alien affection: A new generation of alien-focused pop culture is shedding suspicion and fear, instead showing an affinity for extraterrestrials. Last year, Marc Turtletaub’s film “Jules” showed a man develop a kinship with an alien whose craft crashes in his backyard, while a new book — “The Little Book of Aliens,” by the astrophysicist Adam Frank — argued that we’re closer than ever to being able to look for possible signs of civilization in outer space.
More on culture
Indiana University canceled an exhibition by Samia Halaby, a Palestinian artist who has been harshly critical of Israel.
Lynn Yamada Davis, whose cooking TikToks delighted millions, died at 67.
Late night hosts joked again about Trump’s trials.
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …
Credit…David Malosh for The New York Times
Serve cauliflower cheese as a side dish, or a cheap lunch or dinner.
Brew full-bodied coffee with a French press.
Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was peaking.
And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David and Ian
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