Half of the people of Taiwan do not think the island is on the brink of war with mainland China, despite escalating cross-strait tensions and warnings from military chiefs at home and abroad, a new poll has shown.
The latest survey released by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation showed that 50 per cent of the island’s public did not agree with an assessment by their defence minister Chiu Kuo-cheng over a potential cross-strait conflict.
At a legislature meeting in Taipei on March 7, Chiu said that amid spiralling hostility, the cross-strait situation was so “stringent” that he could not “sleep well at night”, and that he “worries” that war could break out unintentionally.
“No one can say for sure” that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would not attack Taiwan in the near term, he said, adding that “hostility has continued to rise and there are many unexpected situations that could trigger unintended incidents”.
Taiwan Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng has said he could not “sleep well at night” because of a possible cross-strait conflict. Photo: AFP
Chiu was referring to mounting friction between the two sides following a series of recent marine incidents in waters off Quemoy, a Taiwan-controlled defence outpost close to the mainland city of Xiamen.
But despite the elevated tensions, a majority of people in Taiwan disagreed with Chiu, according to the independent Taipei-based polling agency.
In the island-wide survey released on Tuesday, only 37.1 per cent of the respondents shared Chiu’s concerns compared with 50.4 per cent who did not. The remaining participants said they were not aware of the comments.
The poll of adults aged 20 and over also showed 51 per cent of the supporters of the ruling, independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) disagreed with Chiu, versus 39 per cent who agreed with him.
Fifty-nine per cent of supporters of the smaller Taiwan People’s Party disagreed with Chiu’s remarks as opposed to 34 per cent who said they felt the same.
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Supporters of the mainland-friendly main opposition Kuomintang party (KMT) also mostly disagreed with Chiu’s opinions – 50 per cent – compared with 40 per cent of respondents who shared the defence minister’s concerns, according to the survey.
Many KMT politicians believe war is inevitable and imminent because of what they say has been the confrontational cross-strait policy of the DPP.
“The findings convey a subtle message, that is, there is a big gap between the public’s understanding of the cross-strait situation and the defence minister’s,” the agency’s head, Michael You Ying-lung, said.
The gap either showed that the Taiwanese public was uninformed about the cross-strait situation or that the respondents felt Chiu was merely exaggerating, You said. “Which one is true? This is a serious question.”
It was “interesting to note” that most KMT supporters did not feel the same way as Chiu, You said.
In an interview with Taipei-based CommonWealth Magazine last month, Chiu warned that the island must be ready for war with the mainland and bolster its combat preparations.
In prepared testimony on Wednesday, Admiral John Aquilino, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, told the House Armed Services Committee that all signs suggested Beijing was sticking to ambitions to be ready to attack Taiwan by 2027.
In the three years since Aquilino took command, the PLA had added more than 400 fighter jets and more than 20 major warships, he said, adding that the PLA had also doubled its inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles since 2020.
“All indications point to the PLA meeting President Xi Jinping’s directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027,” the admiral said, adding that the “PLA’s actions indicate their ability to meet Xi’s preferred timeline to unify Taiwan with mainland China by force if directed.”
Like most countries, the US does not officially recognise Taiwan as independent but is opposed to a forcible change in the status quo.
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Taiwan’s intelligence chief Tsai Ming-yen said in a legislature meeting on Wednesday that 2027 is an important year for Xi, who will be “seeking his fourth term” as the mainland leader and “striving to attain the goals set for the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA” to largely bolster the mainland’s military power in the region.
Cross-strait relations soured in 2016 after Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP was elected president and refused to accept the one-China principle. Beijing has since ramped up military and diplomatic pressure against Taiwan.
Hostility spiralled further last month after the two sides traded blame over the deaths of two mainland fishermen who died as they were pursued by the Taiwanese coastguard on February 14.
Taiwan insisted it was merely enforcing the law by ordering the fishermen to stop for inspection after their unregistered and unlicensed speedboat entered waters off Quemoy, also known as Kinmen.
Beijing – which regards Taiwan as part of China and has never renounced the use of force to bring it under its control – accused the Taiwanese coastguard of using “violent and dangerous methods” in their pursuit.
