A resumption of military dialogue between China and the United States could help mitigate some tensions. However, despite this diplomatic effort, analysts from China and Asia highlight that significant differences persist, particularly concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea.
This high-level military dialogue follows the agreement between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to resume military-to-military communications. While it signifies a step forward, geopolitical challenges related to Taiwan and the South China Sea remain sources of concern for the coming year.
Biden’s meeting with Xi, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, was aimed in part at restoring the military talks amid escalating concerns about frequent unsafe or unprofessional incidents between the two nations’ ships and aircraft in the Pacific region.
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Brown and Liu “discussed the importance of working together to responsibly manage competition, avoid miscalculations, and maintain open and direct lines of communication,” said Navy Capt. Jereal Dorsey, Brown’s spokesman, in a statement.
The US has consistently viewed military communications with China as critical to avoiding any missteps between their armed forces and to maintaining a peaceful Indo-Pacific region.
Brown’s call is the first Cabinet-level communication with China since Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke on Dec. 6 with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
While few other details about Brown’s call were released, a senior US defence official and a senior military official said it was an important first step. These are the kinds of discussions that the US needs to have with China, they said, to avoid misunderstandings or miscalculations as the two militaries interact. The two officials spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity to provide information before the call.
They said the U.S. is talking with China at various levels to work out a series of calls and meetings in the coming weeks and months. They include plans to hold the bilateral Defense Policy Coordination Talks early next year and the possible resumption of the China-U.S. Military Maritime Consultative Agreement talks in the spring.
During the call Brown reaffirmed the importance of holding the policy and maritime talks as well as opening the lines of communication with top Pacific commanders from the two countries, Dorsey said in his statement.
In August 2022, Beijing suspended all military contacts with the U.S. when Pelosi became the highest-ranking American lawmaker to visit Taiwan since 1997 when then-Speaker Newt Gingrich travelled there. Her visit sparked a surge in military manoeuvres by China.
Beijing dispatched warships and aircraft across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, claiming the de facto boundary did not exist, fired missiles over Taiwan itself, and challenged established norms by firing missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone.
There also has been an increase in what the Pentagon calls risky Chinese aircraft and warship incidents. The Defense Department in October released video footage of some of the more than 180 intercepts of U.S. warplanes by Chinese aircraft that have occurred in the past two years — more than the total number over the previous decade. In one of the more recent incidents, a Chinese pilot flew within 10 feet (3 meters) of a U.S. Air Force B-52, which was conducting routine operations over the South China Sea in international airspace.
While officials touted the Brown-Liu call as an important initial move, the Pentagon has continued to express concerns about China’s aggressive military interactions in the Indo-Pacific and has worked to build alliances with other nations in the region.
Earlier this month, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with defence chiefs from Australia and the United Kingdom to forge a new agreement to increase technology cooperation and information sharing, as part of a broader effort to counter China’s rapidly growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
The new technology agreement is the next step in widening military cooperation with Australia and includes plans to help equip Sydney with a fleet of eight nuclear-powered submarines. The defence leaders pointed to efforts by China to restrict freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific as a reason to bolster their cooperation.
Also, earlier this week, Adm. John Aquilino, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, expressed concerns about the increased joint military actions by China and Russia in the region. Speaking in Tokyo, he said it is far beyond a “marriage of convenience” between Beijing and Moscow, and he urged China to stop escalating maritime confrontations with its neighbours.
China’s defence ministry, meanwhile, has criticised the U.S. for interfering in both Taiwan and the South China Sea, charging that American arms sales to Taiwan are making the situation more dangerous.
‘PROVOCATIVE GESTURES’
China and the Philippines have also ramped up rhetoric on defending territorial claims in the South China Sea after many maritime confrontations, despite both calling for dialogue to settle tensions over that strategic waterway.
This week, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi warned the Philippines against colluding with “ill-intentioned” external forces – a veiled reference to the U.S.
Wang’s remarks could intensify a dispute that has simmered for years, with the Philippines pushing back at what it sees as a Chinese campaign to prevent it from accessing fossil fuel and fisheries resources in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
During the video call, Liu told Brown that the U.S. should respect China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea, and take concrete actions to safeguard regional peace and stability as well as the overall soundness of China-U.S. relations.
“We feel that in the South China Sea this year, the United States has been pushing the Philippines to take more provocative gestures, resulting in rising tensions,” said Wu Xinbo, a professor at China’s Fudan University.
“Will the United States not restrain the Philippines?
“The situation in the South China Sea has reached a tipping point and is very dangerous.”
Washington, for its part, says China’s military has engaged in increasingly provocative and risky behaviour including more than 180 intercepts of U.S. aircraft in international air space, according to the Pentagon’s latest China Military Power Report.
“It’s going to be quite tense in the lead-up to the (Taiwan) election,” said Collin Koh, a security fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
“The U.S. will have to uphold its commitment to Taiwan so we’re likely going to see the Chinese and the U.S. have another new round of disagreements over their respective military activities.
“They are also very likely concerned about how they could manage escalation, so they won’t likely suspend those talks.”
In the call, both sides pledged a broader restoration of contacts between the two militaries to avoid miscalculations and misunderstandings. But the U.S. said “more work” is needed to ensure “open and reliable” lines of military communication.
Liu has emerged as the top contender to replace China’s national defence minister, General Li Shangfu, who was dismissed from his position last month. Reuters reported in September that Li was under investigation over suspected corruption related to equipment procurement and development.
With inputs from agencies.
