Taiwan Votes 2024: A hung parliament could emerge for the first time since 2008. Here’s why it matters – CNA Feedzy

TAIPEI: When Taiwanese go to the ballot booths on Jan 13, they will be picking not just a new president but also 113 legislators for a new parliament. 

And for the first time since 2008, Taiwan faces the prospect of a hung parliament where no single party holds the majority. At the same time, the presidency and legislature will likely be dominated by opposing parties.

Thus, while less closely watched than the presidential race, the legislative elections this time could have substantial consequences such as stalling passage of key laws in the self-governing territory claimed by China.

In opinion polls for the presidential race, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate William Lai Ching-te leads his opponent Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) by as much as 11 percentage points. Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je is a distant third.

But the DPP is widely expected to lose its majority in the Legislative Yuan, dropping from 62 seats to about 46 seats, according to Dr Liao Da-chi, who teaches political science at the National Sun Yat-sen University.

Instead, Dr Liao said the legislative majority is likely to take the form of a collaboration between the KMT and the TPP, a smaller party established in 2019 by Mr Ko, the former mayor of Taipei.

This is because the KMT is expected to improve its standing from 38 seats to about 56 seats, still shy of the majority threshold of 57, while the TPP is projected to expand its hold from five seats to around eight seats, she added.

In that scenario, the TPP will not strictly align itself to either the KMT or the DPP, but play both sides of the aisle according to the issues at hand, wielding its advantage as the party with the balance of power, analysts told CNA.

This sets the stage for even more contestation in Taiwan’s parliament, even as cross-strait tensions continue to ratchet up.

“In these circumstances, there would be more conflict (in the legislature), and it will be quite a painful situation for the DPP. There’s likely to be quite a lot of boycotts and rabble-rousing in the Legislative Yuan,” said Dr Liao.

WHY DOES THE LEGISLATIVE YUAN MATTER?

All eyes may be on the presidential race, but Taiwan’s president and executive branch of government still need the cooperation of the legislature to pass bills and effect meaningful change.

After this election, Taiwan’s legislature is likely to hold crucial debates on labour insurance reform, as well as pick up on election promises ranging from education policy to youth housing policy.

The legislature also approves the president’s appointments of members of the Control Yuan – Taiwan’s ombudsman with powers to impeach, censure and audit – and Judicial Yuan – Taiwan’s supreme court.

Dr Liao highlighted the influence of the legislature’s basic function of setting the legislative agenda. This decides which government bills get priority and which may not be tabled at all.

Dr Wang Yeh-lih, professor of political science at National Taiwan University, pointed out that the parliament’s scrutiny of proposed laws encompasses government budgetary bills, COVID-19 emergency measures and military purchases – a key tool of Taiwan’s national security and foreign policy.

While there is consensus in Taiwan that arms purchases are necessary to defend against China – which has not renounced the use of force to unify the island with the mainland – there are differences of opinion when it comes to the exact purchases and amounts to be spent, he said.

Last August, President Tsai Ing-wen’s government proposed to raise defence spending to a record high of NT$606.8 billion (US$19.1 billion) this year. 

Part of the money was earmarked to pay for arms purchases from the United States, including HIMARS long-range precision strike missile systems and M1A2T Abrams tanks, Focus Taiwan reported.

The government’s overall budget was passed by legislators on Dec 19, 2023, just one day before the Legislative Yuan went on recess for the rest of the year, after DPP and opposition lawmakers agreed on cuts amounting to NT$29.9 billion.

While the budget went through, if the DPP secures the presidency again, Dr Wang said he expects Ms Tsai’s successor to face stronger scrutiny from opposition lawmakers who are likely to form a larger caucus and have more space to make demands after the elections.

“Regardless of whether executive power and legislative power are opposed or aligned, important policies must all go through the legislature. So on many key issues, the Legislative Yuan is bound to play a very important role,” he said.

History shows that even with a parliamentary majority, ruling parties can have a difficult time getting key legislation passed.

Dr Wang pointed to the Sunflower Movement in 2014, when the Legislative Yuan was occupied by activists who opposed the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement, which had been proposed by the KMT-led administration of then President Ma Ying-jeou.

Protesters said the trade pact with China would leave Taiwan more vulnerable to political pressure from Beijing and criticised the way the KMT seemed to have tried to ram the bill through parliament. Despite the KMT holding the legislative majority, the agreement was not ratified. 

Another example was the government’s proposal to raise property taxes for owners of multiple properties. Dr Liao said the bill was suppressed after lobbying by property developers and wealthy property-owners, and only passed in December as housing became a key election issue.

TIPPING THE BALANCE OF POWER

While the TPP is expected to work both sides of the aisle in a hung parliament scenario, Dr Liao said that on cross-strait issues, the party could be more aligned with the KMT, which favours closer ties with China. This may not be the case for domestic issues.

As a first step, the TPP is likely to support the KMT’s choice of speaker of parliament, paving the way for further cooperation. 

But the TPP’s Dr Ko is no pushover, and will want to preserve his political future and the viability of his party, she said. 

“I believe the TPP’s ability to work both sides is very strong, and both parties (DPP and KMT) will need to work to win it over,” she said. 

This may lead to more raucous parliamentary sessions, but is not necessarily a bad thing, she added.

“As political scientists we consider this a good thing, because there is more compromise, more negotiation, more diverse opinions being considered, and this can make the coverage of policies more well-rounded.”

DPP PRESIDENCY WITH KMT MAJORITY

A hung parliament is not the only possible scenario – a KMT majority in the legislature is the other most likely outcome, according to Taiwan observers at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event in December.

Opinion polls predict that if the KMT performs well in the legislative election, it could gain as many as more than 60 seats, giving it the majority, said Dr Liao.

If this scenario comes to pass, it will harken back to the situation under the DPP’s President Chen Shui-bian from 2000 to 2008. 

The then-Speaker Wang Jin-pying of the KMT managed to achieve a measure of harmony and stability in the legislature through his skill in negotiation and consensus-building, said Dr Wang.

If the presidency and legislature are held by opposing parties again, Dr Wang said he believes the KMT’s opposition to the DPP will be stronger than under Mr Wang, and clashes will be more intense after this election.

Taiwan requires any constitutional amendment to be passed by at least three-fourths of legislators present, with a quorum of at least three-fourths of the Legislative Yuan. More than half of eligible voters must then endorse the amendment in a national referendum.

This means that any constitutional amendment is likely to require bipartisan support. And even after clearing the legislative bar, amendments can stumble in the referendum. 

In 2022, lawmakers voted 109-0 in favour of a bill to lower the voting age from 20 to 18, but voters rejected the proposal.

A STRONGMAN SPEAKER

After the election, the immediate task before the new parliament will be to select its speaker, said Dr Liao.

The leading contender is shaping up to be former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu of the KMT, who ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2020.

Aside from district legislators and indigenous legislators, who are elected individually, voters will also elect 34 legislators-at-large in a separate party ballot.

The legislator-at-large seats are allocated to each party by proportional representation based on the number of votes the party receives. Each party ranks their legislator-at-large candidates and fills the allocated seats in order of this ranking.

Mr Han, running as a legislator-at-large, is ranked first on the KMT’s list, virtually guaranteeing his seat in parliament. The KMT seems to intend for him to become speaker, said Dr Wang.

Whether a KMT-led house will be able to make progress on laws proposed by a DPP administration will depend on Mr Han’s working style in the Legislative Yuan, and Dr Liao believes that he will be a more intransigent speaker than Mr Wang was.

“When dealing with problems, he will be more insistent on the KMT’s position,” she said. Coupled with Mr Han’s ability to shape public opinion, this would be a “very tough” situation for a DPP presidency, she said.