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Courtesy of Sean Pavone on iStock
On Jan. 13th, 2024, the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) presidential candidate, Lai Ching-Te, also known as William Lai, won Taiwan’s presidential election by a decisive margin securing a third consecutive term in power. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has labeled Lai as “an extreme danger” to cross-strait relations due to his party’s appeal and rhetoric. This election has seemingly demonstrated that Taiwanese citizens prefer self-governance over closer relations with the PRC. However, Lai’s commitment to maintaining this status quo does not progress Taiwan at the needed pace.
University of California, Riverside (UCR) student and Intern for the Democratic Progressive Party Mission (DPP) in the United States, Angela Chien, explains that Lai, “represents a younger voice” in Taiwan to explain his rise to the presidency despite his party’s loss of seats in the Taiwanese Yuan or Legislature. The divided legislature will pose a significant obstacle to the passage of multiple pieces of Lai’s key domestic agenda. Although the DPP boasts three consecutive presidential victories, Chien claims that the 2028 election in Taiwan will be even more difficult for the DPP to adjust its platform to shifting Taiwanese politics and the appeal of rival opposition parties.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won by a decisive margin with William Lai after an initially close race to win a third consecutive term in power. The President-Elect’s list of election promises needs no further search than his victory speech to a raucous crowd on election night in Taiwan, which included comments that he would “walk side by side with democracies from around the world.” Yet, he softened his stance in aspiring for Taiwan’s independence, previously describing himself to be a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence,” as he largely replaced this sentiment with overwhelming uniting rhetoric amidst election celebrations.
The DPP’s continuation of military deterrence, diplomatic engagement and economic cooperation with Taiwan’s allies thwart Beijing’s goal of reunification of its “rogue province” and rejection of the “One China, One Taiwan” perspective. China has repeatedly reasserted its claims over the island nation and rejects the current status quo. Since 1949, Taiwan has maintained its self-governance after its citizens under Chiang Kai-Shek lost a civil war to Mao Zedong’s communist party, who fled from mainland China to settle in Taiwan. This civil war has influenced cross-strait relations until today as China has employed various intimidation tactics to win in what it views as an existential struggle to reunify the Chinese people, cement their national identity and bolster their reputation on the world stage.
As a historical pattern often invoked by Chinese President Xi Jinping, China’s history is marked with political frustrations and embarrassment as dynasties have fractured, its people divided, and its government belittled by foreign powers. To China, Taiwan means more than gaining a piece of territory — it signals a historical, cultural and national victory for the Chinese identity.
Internationally, fears rest on the prospects of a major and costly war between the United States and China. This hinges on the speculation that if China were to invade Taiwan, the United States would come to its defense based on its policy of “strategic ambiguity.” The status quo promised by the new Taiwanese President will not be enough to guarantee the safety and security of the Taiwanese people, especially with the possible victory of a neo-isolationist Republican candidate in the United States and an increasingly more aggressive Beijing. Instead of sticking with the status quo, a more ambitious Taiwan needs to clearly define its relationship with China, reinforce its alliances and keep a possible conflict too costly for the aggressor to prevent the worst.
As the Taiwanese people continue to choose democracy over dictatorship, the success that either China or Taiwan will have in fulfilling each of their respective promises to their people remains to be seen. But, even as China utilizes tactics of fear and aggression to convince the Taiwanese of their government’s ineffectiveness, they have been going on for years as Taiwan remains unflinching. Instead, China’s malfeasance has only shown the Taiwanese people that their democracy is valuable. Just as much as it is an existential desire for China to reunify, the stakes are clearly the same for the Taiwanese and their independence. Instead of relying on the status quo, Lai Ching-te should find a path of conviction rather than a path of ambiguity.
