Global Impact: William Lai’s presidential victory in Taiwan does little to cool US-mainland China tensions as self-ruled island looks to the future
Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world. Sign up now!
Taiwan’s much-watched presidential election ended last Saturday, with William Lai Ching-te, from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) claiming victory in the poll that determines the trajectory of the self-ruled island and affects regional security.
The ruling DPP secured an unprecedented third straight presidential term, but failed to retain its legislative majority in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan, marking the first time in 16 years that no party has had an absolute majority.
Such results add a note of uncertainty to Lai’s administration, as he will face the prospect of a hostile legislature that could obstruct any potential pro-independence agenda.
In the three-way race, Lai fended off his rivals from the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) – both perceived as friendlier to Beijing – by winning 5.59 million votes, or 40 per cent of the electorate.
In the legislature, which requires at least 57 seats for an outright majority, the DPP retained just 51 of its previous 61 seats, while the KMT added 14 to take its tally to 52 lawmakers and the TPP won eight seats, marking the first time that a third party has had a swing vote.
The closely watched elections had expected a high voter turnout and saw thousands of overseas Taiwanese return to cast their ballots.
International media also covered the elections extensively, highlighting their significance for the self-ruled island and the world.
However, state media in mainland China made few references to Taiwan’s elections on polling day, while social media platform Weibo blocked the hashtag “Taiwan election 2024”.
Lai’s victory could bring further tensions across the strait, as Beijing has long branded Lai as a “troublemaker” over his stance on independence.
On the eve of the election, Beijing’s defence ministry said it was “on high alert”, noting that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was ready to take “all necessary measures” to defeat “Taiwan separatism”.
Immediately following Lai’s win, the PLA refrained from a severe response. But after a brief lull over election weekend, its military activities around the island returned to usual levels by Tuesday.
Beijing has tried to downplay the DPP’s victory in its response to the results. Its Taiwan Affairs Office, the official agency for cross-strait ties, said the result did not represent the views of most Taiwanese. It also said the election could not “stop the general trend” towards “inevitable” reunification.
China’s top diplomat also weighed in, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying Taiwan’s election result cannot change the “basic fact” that there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of it.
Beijing had ramped up its diplomatic efforts ahead of the vote. Hours before polls opened, Liu Jianchao, head of the Communist Party’s diplomatic arm, met in Washington with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who stressed “stability across the Taiwan Strait”.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington opposes any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
The US congratulated Lai, but also sought to reassure Beijing on Washington’s cross-strait stance. US President Joe Biden made a statement, widely seen to calm Beijing’s nerves, that the US does not support Taiwan’s independence.
Beijing had responded to Blinken’s message to Lai by lodging a protest with the US through the foreign ministry, saying Washington was sending a “gravely wrong signal” to “Taiwan independence separatist forces”.
A similar warning was also made before the arrival of a US delegation in Taiwan following the elections. Beijing has warned Washington to recognise the sensitivity of the Taiwan issue and not to make any moves seen as encouragement for independence advocates.
The US delegation’s arrival has been seen by observers as a show of Washington’s continued support for Taipei, and also as an attempt by the White House to head off any plans by the Lai administration to alter the cross-strait status quo.
While the delegation met Lai and other Taiwanese leaders on Monday, Taiwan suffered a diplomatic setback the same day, severing diplomatic relations with Nauru following the Pacific island nation’s decision to re-establish ties with Beijing. The break leaves Taipei with just 12 formal allies.
As incumbent Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen prepares to bow out after finishing her second four-year term in May, the challenges faced by the new administration, and Beijing’s long-term reaction to Lai’s presidency, remain to be seen.
60-Second Catch-up
Beijing dials up cross-strait message after Blinken, US allies applaud president-elect William Lai
William Lai’s presidential victory risks further tensions with Beijing
As it happened: DPP’s William Lai wins Taiwan presidential election but party loses control of legislature
Video: Vice-President William Lai wins Taiwan presidential election as his party loses legislature majority
President-elect William Lai faces new era with legislature in the balance
Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen leaves tough legacy for president-elect William Lai
Podcast: Opposition party in spotlight after Taiwan vote
Joe Biden says US does not support independence
Opinion: Beijing is already prepared for Taiwan reunification
No change after Taiwan election to ‘basic fact’ there is only one China: Wang Yi
Video: ‘We only wish for peace’: cross-strait couple’s love transcends politics
Deep dives
Photo: EPA-EFE
US House passes finance bills bolstering Taiwan and squeezing mainland China
One supports including Taipei in IMF while another directs regulators to exclude Beijing from banking organisations over threats to self-ruled island
California Republican Young Kim says her bill meant to send Taiwanese “a strong message of solidarity and support for their democracy”
The US House of Representatives advanced three bipartisan finance bills concerning Taiwan and mainland China on Friday, bringing legislation meant to bolster American support for the self-ruled island closer to becoming law.
The first of the three, sponsored by California Republican Young Kim, supports including Taiwan as a member of the International Monetary Fund.
Illustration: Davies Christian Surya
‘Taiwan card’: island’s rising strategic value tests Beijing’s diplomacy tactics
Taiwan is increasingly an international issue and the election outcome may reshape its future ties with the world
As Beijing seeks to influence other countries’ ties with the island, it has the means to ‘make them pay for their decisions’, expert says
While mainland China ramps up efforts to squeeze and isolate Taiwan ahead of a high-stakes presidential election this weekend, the self-ruled island has gained increased international prominence amid heightened cross-strait tensions and the US-China superpower rivalry.
Many countries in Asia, Europe and beyond have stepped up their rhetoric, voicing concerns on the worsening situation in the Taiwan Strait. Over recent months, some have followed Washington’s lead to circumvent Beijing’s opposition and pursue substantive economic and political ties with the island’s independence-leaning government.
Photo: AP
International media focus on tensions, security and uncertainty as Taiwan votes
More than 400 journalists from around the world have converged on the island to cover the presidential election
Asahi Shimbun says poll will affect ‘security of East Asia’, while New York Times report calls Taiwan ‘single biggest flashpoint’ in US-China rivalry
Taiwan’s three-way presidential race has been extensively covered by international media, with reports highlighting the significance of the election for the self-ruled island of 23.5 million – and the world.
More than 400 journalists from overseas – including 217 from media outlets in the United States – converged on Taiwan to cover Saturday’s vote, according to the island’s foreign ministry.
Photo: Reuters
Taiwan chip sector is ‘world’s common asset’: president-elect William Lai
‘China and other countries must also cherish’ Taiwan’s role in global chip industry, Lai says after victory on Saturday
Frayed cross-strait ties and US-China tensions have sparked concerns about the core sector seen as a ‘silicon shield’ for the island
Delivering his acceptance speech on Saturday, Taiwan’s president-elect William Lai Ching-te vowed to spare no efforts to further develop the island’s critical chip and semiconductor industry.
“As president, I will continue to assist the development of the semiconductor industry, from materials, equipment, research and development, integrated circuit design, manufacturing to wafer fabrication and testing for the industry to build a comprehensive cluster and further its development in Taiwan. This will of course benefit the global economy as well,” Lai said in Taipei.
Photo: Bloomberg
Taiwan-mainland China investment hits 22-year valley as relations sour
Investment figures on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have fallen to new lows thanks to political tension and consequent shifts in supply chains
Many Taiwanese companies are moving outside the mainland, but some still seek to do business there and are finding workarounds
Taiwanese investments approved for mainland China, a historic destination for the island’s export manufacturing sector, fell to a 22-year-low in 2023 while mainland investment in Taiwan also plumbed new depths, showing both sides of the strait have been impacted by political friction and global supply chain shifts.
Investments approved for Taiwanese companies in the mainland reached about US$3.04 billion last year, the Department of Investment Review under Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs said on Monday. That figure covered 328 specific project applications.
Photo: AP
US group urges Taiwan’s Lai to keep calm and carry on with cross-strait status quo
Former White House officials offer support for island’s next administration following the DPP’s win in the weekend’s presidential election
The visit is a pre-emptive move to stop things from getting out of control, analyst says
A delegation from the United States has arrived in Taiwan in a show of America’s continued support for Taipei, two days after the self-ruled island elected a new president.
The delegation, led by former national security adviser Stephen Hadley and former deputy secretary of state James Steinberg, landed on the island on Sunday amid warnings from Beijing that the election of William Lai Ching-te would increase the risk of conflict.
Photo: AFP
US-China ties should not be ‘held hostage’ by Taiwan issue: Beijing adviser
Taiwan remains ‘core’ issue in US-China ties, but it is ‘not the whole story’, noted professor and adviser to Beijing’s policymakers says
In comments posted on WeChat, Zheng Yongnian urges Beijing to explore ‘salami slicing’ approach to push for peaceful reunification
Beijing should not let US relations be “held hostage” by the Taiwan issue, a noted political scientist and adviser to Chinese policymakers has urged.
Zheng Yongnian, a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Shenzhen campus, said while Taiwan remained a “core” issue in US-China ties, it was “not the whole story”.
Photo: X/@AmbXieFeng
China-US relations: sides convey serious intent amid celebration of ties
‘There is but one China and Taiwan is part of China,’ Beijing’s ambassador to the US says days after Taiwan election
Xie Feng calls on the US to accept China for what it is, and acknowledge and accept ideological differences behind their two systems
China’s top diplomat in the United States delivered a gracious speech marking the 45th anniversary of US-China relations that couched a tough message: do not mess with Taiwan.
“Today, the Taiwan question remains the most important, sensitive and explosive question in China-US relations,” said Xie Feng, China’s ambassador to the United States, midway through his remarks. “There is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.”
Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.
Sign up now!
