Congratulations to Taiwan for mounting a peaceful, democratic and orderly election last Jan. 13. We also congratulate president-elect, Lai Ching-te (William Lai is his English name) who won with a 40.5 percent plurality vote. Lai was followed by Hou Yu-hi of the Kuomintang Party and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan’s People’s Party who finished with 33.49 percent and 26.01 percent voter share, respectively.
President-elect Lai belongs to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the same party as outgoing President Tsai Ing-Wen. Like his predecessor, Lai resists China’s overtures of reunification. He is committed to keep Taiwan independent and lean closer to the US as its principal defense partner.
“It is my important responsibility, as president, to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” Lai recently told media. He added that while his administration will seek dialogue and engagement with Beijing, he remains “determined to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threats and intimidation from China.”
Lai seeks a status quo in as far as Taiwan’s relationship with China is concerned. The status quo means the absence of war and not to be subsumed like Hong Kong was. Lai’s position on China represents the will of the Taiwanese people. Survey shows that the majority reject reunification with China as they value the freedoms that their democratic system allows.
The Taiwanese have proven that Chinese society can thrive even amid wieldy democratic systems. On a per capita income perspective, Taiwan is three times wealthier than China. It also beats China in most development indices. This proves that a democratic system is a better match to core Chinese culture than Maoist-style communism is.
But the Taiwanese economy remains deeply integrated with China. So when Lai assumes office on May 20, his priority will be to economically de-couple from the mainland.
He also plans to increase the island-state’s defense budget to strengthen its deterrence and defense capabilities. Lai wants to develop Taiwan’s local arms industry and is looking at the US to help it do so. Doing this will be a challenge for Lai since his party, the DPP, failed to secure the majority in the Taiwanese legislature. It is the first time the PDP lost the majority since the year 2000.
As for Beijing, it considers the 64-year-old Lai a separatist and “troublemaker through and through” for saying that he will work for Taiwan’s formal independence. In fact, before the election, Beijing warned that a vote for Lai is a vote for war.
China’s invasion
Beijing has been surprisingly quiet since Lai’s victory. But I believe this is just the calm before the storm. We all know what Beijing intentions are as they have never tried to hide it. In Xi Jinping’s New Year’s message, he said that 2024 will be the year of reunification between China and Taiwan and he will not hesitate to use force, if necessary.
Xi means what he says. China has been preparing for war. This is evident in the wartime infrastructure they’ve built; in the changes they’ve made in their legal system; in the preparations to sanction-proof their economy; in their stockpile of fuel, essential raw materials and food and, most especially, in ensuring military readiness. China is telling the world of its intentions through its actions.
Is President Lai certain to face China’s wrath? The odds say so. This is because Lai is firm on his position and Xi will settle for nothing less than reunification. It is a classic stalemate and a recipe for armed conflict.
When could the invasion happen? China’s amphibious forces are not 100 percent prepared as of this moment but certain events can trigger a Taiwan assault notwithstanding.
These triggers are: First, if Lai declares independence from China. Second, for political reasons. China’s economy is in bad shape and public dissent is on the rise. A war will distract the Chinese people whilst uniting them. Third, if the People’s Liberation Army pressures Xi to invade now (rather than later) since the generals are aging and their preparations will soon be for naught. Fourth, the power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party become so dividing that a war is used to unite the party. Fifth, if China’s grey zone intimidation tactics are met with armed response.
This year is also an opportune time for China to make its move. See, America faces a presidential election in November and the last thing the American electorate wants is to fight a war that is not theirs. The more support Biden extends to Taiwan, the less popular he becomes. So should China attack Taiwan this year, Biden will be politically constrained.
Don’t drop the ball, America
That said, politics must still be set aside for the greater good and America must step up regardless of political cost. Because if China succeeds in annexing Taiwan, it will send the signal that the US is incapable of defending its allies. It will give China the morale and strategic advantage it needs.
Should China succeed in its Taiwan campaign, an invasion of strategic areas of Southeast Asia will likely follow. This is because controlling Taiwan, the West Philippine Sea and strategic parts of ASEAN will make China the predominant power in the Indo-Pacific. It is precisely the power base it needs to project its influence worldwide.
So America must not waiver. Too, America should hasten the delivery of arms that Taiwan had ordered and paid for. (The US faces a manufacturing backlog of arms given the simultaneous conflicts going on.)
As for the rest of the democratic world, we must support Taiwan in its diplomatic engagements even if many nations have adopted a One-China Policy. We must stand by Taiwan and its democracy.
* * *
Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan
