Vivek Ramaswamy wants to distance the country he aims to lead from intervening on behalf of friendly governments — and he’s not alone. Email Matt
The three top-polling Republicans for the presidential nomination all have one thing in common: they don’t want to commit the United States to defend other governments, namely in Ukraine and Taiwan.
Take the latest proposal from VIVEK RAMASWAMY: The U.S. will help Taiwan deter an invasion from China until it has achieved “semiconductor independence” by 2028. “Our commitments to Taiwan, and our commitments to be willing to go to military conflict will change after that because that’s rationally in our self-interest,” he told radio host HUGH HEWITT on Monday.
In talks with Ramaswamy’s team, NatSec Daily got further clarity that, for the candidate, his calculus would shift the moment he felt the U.S. had access to all the semiconductors it needs to power its economy. He plans to expand on this idea during an Aug. 17 speech at the Nixon Library.
Set aside, for a moment, that industry experts and U.S. officials say achieving such independence is unlikely, if not impossible. America can boost its market share of the vital technology but not be self-sufficient, they contend.
Regardless, the real takeaway here is that Ramaswamy wants to distance the country he aims to lead from intervening on behalf of friendly governments — and he’s not alone.
DONALD TRUMP has repeatedly refused to back Ukraine in its defense against Russia, claiming without evidence that he could broker peace within 24 hours. He would also encourage Europe to give Kyiv $100 billion more so the U.S. could spend less. Meanwhile, Trump has flashed some anger at Taiwan, saying in July that the democratic island “took our [chips] business away.”
RON DeSANTIS, too, has his doubts about defending others abroad. Though he now calls Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN a “war criminal,” he first described the Ukraine-Russia fight as a “territorial dispute.” His overall foreign policy view is one that prioritizes competing with China, and keeping the U.S. out of ill-defined military missions, rather than buttressing friendly capitals like Kyiv and Taipei.
(There is a major exception to all this: Many Republican candidates have expressed an openness to bombing drug cartels in Mexico because of the fentanyl they bring into the U.S., which has fueled the opioid crisis.)
Pollsters note that, generally speaking, the American public wants to remain engaged in the world, though the Chicago Council on Global Affairs’ DINA SMELTZ told us those numbers have been dropping among Republicans. “Until 2016, Republicans were usually more likely to support an active part in world affairs. 55 percent [in 2022] is the lowest point ever recorded for Republicans,” she said.
What Americans don’t like is the U.S. involving itself in conflicts without a clear sense of the interests at stake. Despite President JOE BIDEN’s message that global democracy is on the line in Ukraine, 48 percent of Republicans said in July they don’t see an American interest in the fight.
It’s unlikely that the majority of voters have put Trump, DeSantis and Ramaswamy atop the Republican field because of their national security views — though it’s worth noting more hawkish candidates like MIKE PENCE and NIKKI HALEY are lagging behind them.
What is increasingly clear is that some wariness of defending Ukraine and Taiwan, or any other friendly government, isn’t a dealbreaker for Republican voters, and expressing such skepticism isn’t the poison pill it might have been in past cycles.
The Inbox
TRAINING PAINS: Some of the coup leaders in Niger were trained by the U.S. military, infuriating current and former U.S. officials have seen the train-coup-train-coup pattern over and over again.
“It is hard to not be disappointed,” retired Gen. JOSEPH VOTEL, who led U.S. Special Operations Command from 2014 to 2016, overseeing the U.S. commandos who make up the bulk of military trainers in the region, told our own LARA SELIGMAN and NAHAL TOOSI. “Backsliding on democratic values is never a good thing.”
Brig. Gen. MOUSSA BARMOU spent years training in the U.S. and building relationships with senior American military officials. He is now one of the coup leaders, disheartening the people who know him.
“He’s the kind of guy that gives you hope for the future of the country, so that makes this doubly disappointing,” said retired Maj. Gen. J. MARCUS HICKS, commander of U.S. Special Operations Forces Africa from 2017 to 2019 who became friendly with the Nigerien officer.
Some say part of the issue is that American training practices and fighting doctrine aren’t exactly the right fit for regional militaries. Small arms tactics and policing are all well and good, but not every force can fight like the U.S. does. Others suggest that the training is helpful, as it’s the African-region officers with Western training that often defend democracy and their constitutions.
CHINESE DEFENSE MINISTER IN RUSSIA: Chinese Defense Minister LI SHANGFU is in Russia today for the Moscow Conference on International Security, our colleagues at Brussels Playbook report. Li, who snubbed Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN during his visit to the Shangri-La in Singapore, will also visit Belarus on his six-day trip. The trip comes as the war in Ukraine continues and Moscow and Beijing seek to expand collaboration on space exploration.
UN TAKES UP AZERBAIJAN DEBATE: The U.N. Security Council will convene an emergency meeting to discuss the ongoing crisis in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports. The meeting comes amid concerns that Azerbaijan is committing a genocide in Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway Armenian exclave within Azerbaijan’s borders that the two countries have fought over since the 1990s.
“A schedule for the work of the Security Council, published late Monday night, confirmed that the appeal will be discussed on Wednesday,” Gabriel writes. “Armenia’s ambassador to the U.N., MHER MARGARYAN, last week wrote to the international conflict resolution body to warn Nagorno-Karabakh is ‘on the verge of a full-fledged humanitarian catastrophe.’ The country’s foreign minister, ARARAT MIRZOYAN, will fly to New York to take part in the session.”
Lawmakers are hoping the U.S. will step up its actions toward Azerbaijan. Sens. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and ALEX PADILLA (D-Calif.) sent a letter to U.N. Ambassador LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD today, urging her to use the moment to punish Azerbaijan and restore aid flows to Nagorno-Karabakh.
RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKES: At least three people were killed after Russia launched a barrage of missiles at Ukraine today, targeting the east, west and regions bordering Poland, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports.
Moscow launched 28 cruise missiles from the air and the Black Sea, 16 of which Kyiv shot down, Ukrainian military officials said. Missiles also struck Lviv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk and several other areas. The assault was one of the largest Ukraine has seen recently, even amid Russia’s consistent aerial attacks in the past month.
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2024
GOP NOTES AFGHANISTAN ANNIVERSARY: Republican presidential candidates noted the two-year anniversary of the fall of the Afghan government today, taking the opportunity to bash the Biden administration for its handling of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country and position themselves as a better foreign policy alternative to voters.
“Two years ago, the world watched in horror as Joe Biden withdrew from Afghanistan in a way that betrayed our allies and emboldened our enemies,” Former U.N. Ambassador NIKKI HALEY said in a post on X. “In a Haley administration, there will be no mistaking where we stand. Our allies will know we have their backs, and our enemies will fear American strength.”
Former Vice President MIKE PENCE, who with former President DONALD TRUMP negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban, also took time to bash the Biden administration for its handling of the withdrawal. “It has been two years since the US Embassy in Kabul was evacuated and the capital fell to the Taliban following @POTUS Joe Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan,” Pence posted on X, flagginga Wall Street Journal opinion piece he wrote back in August 2021.
ICYMI: Our own NAHAL TOOSI looked at what former U.S. envoy ZALMAY KHALILZAD’s been up to since the fall of Kabul in 2021.
Keystrokes
BACON GETS HACKED: Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) said the FBI told him that Chinese hackers had access to his accounts for about a month, ending in mid-June.
“The CCP hackers utilized a vulnerability in the Microsoft software, and this was not due to ‘user error,'” Bacon tweeted Monday night, adding that both his campaign and personal email accounts were hacked into. “Thus, there were other victims in this cyber operation.”
It wasn’t immediately clear which other members of Congress were impacted, if any. The wide-ranging impacts of the Microsoft hack have been unveiled over the past months, with top officials including those at the State Department and Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO also having been targeted.
The Complex
MAUI RESPONSE: Defense Secretary Austin has designated Brig. Gen. STEPHEN LOGAN, the commander of the Hawaii Army National Guard, head of a new joint task force to “synchronize” all DOD support to the devastating wildfires on Maui, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh announced in a Tuesday briefing.
U.S. active-duty forces are now helping to move cargo, personnel, supplies and equipment between the islands, Singh said. The Pentagon has also offered Schofield Barracks, a U.S. Army installation on Oahu, to house federal emergency responders.
The Pentagon has also authorized forces for standby aerial fire suppression, transportation of personnel and cargo from the mainland, and setting up additional staging areas on Maui and Oahu if necessary, Singh said. She declined to provide a specific number of active-duty service members involved in the response effort.
The Hawaii National Guard has activated approximately 258 Army and Air National Guard personnel on state active-duty status to support the effort, Singh said. Meanwhile, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has deployed 27 personnel in person and 14 virtually, as well as 41 contractors, to help with debris removal and temporary power services.
VR TEAMUP: Virtual and mixed reality headset maker Varjo announced it is teaming up with Vertex Solutions, which develops mixed reality flight simulators for the Pentagon, to provide equipment for Air Force helicopter training, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.
Vertex’s mixed reality flight simulators will be equipped with Varjo’s Aero and XR-3 Focal Edition mixed reality headsets for all Air Force undergraduate rotary-wing virtual reality pilot training under the partnership.
On the Hill
GOP FOR UKR: A conservative group is about to spend $2 million to convince Republicans skeptical of supporting Ukraine that they should back Kyiv’s fight against Russia, per the Washington Post’s MARIANA ALFARO.
“Republicans for Ukraine,” launched by Defending Democracy Together’s SARAH LONGWELL and BILL KRISTOL, will push GOP lawmakers to say “aye” when votes on funding for Ukraine come up.
“The organization gathered testimony from more than 50 pro-Ukraine Republican voters, which will be shared in an ad campaign that will air starting Tuesday until the end of the year,” Alfaro reports. “The advertisements will appear online, on billboards and on nationwide television, including during the first GOP presidential debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, which Fox News will broadcast.”
The campaign comes days after the Biden administration asked Congress to approve nearly $21 billion in additional funding for Ukraine’s defense.
Broadsides
GENERAL ARMAGEDDON OUT: Russian Gen. SERGEI SUROVIKIN, a top military official believed to have close ties with Wagner chief YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, has been removed from his post and is under house arrest, our own ELISA BRAUN and ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH report.
After Prigozhin’s failed mutiny against the Kremlin, Surovikin’s loyalty has come under scrutiny.
“There is no official investigation, but Surovikin spent a long time in limbo answering uncomfortable questions,” a well-connected Russian blog reported, adding that the general has been advised to stay under the radar so that he is “forgotten.”
The Kremlin has not yet made an official public statement about Surovikin’s whereabouts or the reports about his foreknowledge of the Wagner mutiny, only referring to “speculations, allegations” when probed by reporters on his disappearance.
Transitions
— DANIEL “RAGS” RAGSDALE has accepted a position in the Office of the National Cyber Director as deputy assistant director for workforce and education. He will leave his role as vice president of DOD strategy at Two Six Technologies.
— JINYOUNG ENGLUND is now chief strategy officer for the CDAO Algorithmic Warfare Directorate in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. She most recently was acting deputy chief digital and artificial intelligence officer in the Directorate for Digital Services and acting director of the Defense Digital Service.
What to Read
— TERRIL YUE JONES, POLITICO: The vanishing of a Chinese ‘wolf warrior’ diplomat
— MICHAEL BECKLEY, The New York Times: No one should want to see a dictator get old
— ANDREW YEO, MIREYA SOL?S, and HANNA FOREMAN, Foreign Affairs: America’s window of opportunity in Asia
Tomorrow Today
— The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 9 a.m.: Global shipping: the challenges of climate, COVID recovery, and China.
— The Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute, 10 a.m.: The future of U.S.-Mexico relations, including the outlook for Mexico’s 2024 presidential election.
–The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: Protecting point-to-point messaging apps: Understanding Telegram, WeChat and WhatsApp in the United States.
— The Air and Space Forces Association and the U.S. Air Force, 3 p.m.: An announcement on the next phase of the Blended Wing Body aircraft prototype project.
Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose national security views no one likes.
We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who could win the Republican nomination with 100 percent of the vote.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this newsletter misstated where Li Shangfu snubbed Lloyd Austin. It was at the Shangri-La in Singapore.
