Taiwan faces a crucial decision between independence and unification, with implications for regional peace and stability.
By Ho Chung-yueh
The intricate political landscape in Taiwan is shaped by its two major parties—the unity-focused Kuomintang (KMT) and the independence-championing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Since the election of Taiwan’s president in 1996, the island has undergone three notable shifts in political power. During Ma Ying-jeou’s leadership of the KMT from 2008 to 2016, the Taiwan Strait experienced relative calm—a rare occurrence since the KMT’s retreat to Taiwan in 1949. However, Tsai Ing-wen’s assumption of office in 2016, representing the DPP, brought a “pro-U.S. and anti-China” policy, reigniting tensions and returning Taiwan-China relations to a “Cold War standoff.”
In October 1991, the DPP officially embraced the “Taiwan Independence Party Platform,” advocating for Taiwan’s independence. Then, in May 1999, the DPP adopted the Resolution on the Future of Taiwan,” formally acknowledging the Republic of China’s (ROC) administrative status as a sovereign and independent nation, marking a significant shift from the notion of “de jure Taiwan independence.”
In her 2020 re-election, Tsai Ing-wen asserted, in an interview with the British media BBC, “We are already an independent country, and we are called the ‘Republic of China (Taiwan).’” However, China’s non-negotiable stance revolves around the “1992 Consensus” and the principle of “one country, two systems.” Consequently, the DPP has sought refuge under the protective umbrella of the “Republic of China,” while harboring aspirations for a “Republic of Taiwan.”
Taiwan has seen three presidents with pro-independence leanings—Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, and Tsai Ing-wen—governing collectively for 28 years. They have vigorously promoted de-Sinicized education reforms, altering the younger generations connection to China. Particularly during Tsai Ing wen’s recent eight-year tenure, the “Taiwan History” textbook was separated, and “Chinese History” was integrated into Taiwan’s “East Asian History” curriculum. The leaders advocating for independence successfully severed the “umbilical cord” connecting Taiwan with China, to the extent that the new generation of Taiwanese may be unfamiliar with figures like Sun Yat-sen, the founding father of the Republic of China.
The Election Study Center of National ChengChi University (ESC, NCCU) in Taiwan annually releases an opinion poll on the Unification-Independence stances of the Taiwanese people. Most Taiwanese believe that ESC, NCCU is the most impartial Opinion Polls Institute. The Independence vs. Unification Survey, conducted by ESC, NCCU, reveals a consistent rise in respondents choosing to “maintain the status quo and move toward independence in the future” since its inception in 1994.
In the July 2023 opinion poll, ESC, NCCU presented four options: (1) cross-strait unification, (2) Taiwan independence, (3) maintaining the status quo, and (4) no opinion. Approval rates were (1) 7.4%, (2) 25.9%, (3) 60.7%, and (4) 6.0%, indicating a clear consensus favoring “maintaining the status quo” among the Taiwanese populace.
Despite both the KMT and DPP feeling compelled to advocate for “unification” and “independence,” respectively, they are navigating different political landscapes. The KMT “does not favor unification” due to fears of losing the presidential vote in January 2024, while the DPP refrains from declaring independence due to uncertainty about U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan.
Core supporters of the KMT and DPP stand at around 27% and 30%, respectively. To secure victory in the presidential election, both parties must appeal to the floating voter demographic, necessitating a shift toward the center.
Surveys in Taiwan, indicating that over 70% of respondents claim they would “fight to defend Taiwan if China invades by force,” should be approached skeptically, considering potential influences from sample sources, size, and analysis methods. The KMT-DPP rift has divided sentiments among the Taiwanese, making it unlikely for unionists and independents to unite against invading Communist forces.
In the face of a Chinese military incursion into Taiwan, individuals may respond in various ways, from street-level resistance with AK-47 rifles to welcoming the troops with China’s national flag, the five-star flag. Taiwan’s political leaders must acknowledge this reality rather than relying solely on isolated poll results and pursuing unrealistic ideals.
Currently, most Taiwanese are unwilling to accept peaceful unification under China’s “one country, two systems” framework. While “maintaining the status quo“ is the prevailing consensus, it cannot be sustained indefinitely. Taiwan stands at a crucial T-junction, with a decision to turn left toward independence or right toward unification. Xi Jinping has consistently pursued force to unify Taiwan, and any moves toward Taiwan Independence would face strong resistance from China. The direction taken by Taiwan’s new president, elected on January 13, 2024, could have profound implications, posing the question of whether Taiwan will face war or peace.
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TNL Editor: Kim Chan (@thenewslensintl)
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