Every crisis is an opportunity, a learning opportunity. Beijing has taken copious and detailed notes on Russia’s mistakes in invading Ukraine. That means, contrary to self-styled experts in the West, the mainland is unlikely to invade the Taiwanese island unless backed into a corner.
However, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and her secessionist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are a different story. They have not learned anything. Actually, they have been doubling down with persistent encouragement from Washington. They want to out-Ukraine Ukraine. The only course correction will be from the island’s electorate come January with its legislative and presidential elections. That is likely to be a close call.
By now, it should be clear that Beijing will be extremely cautious when dealing militarily with the island. The only circumstance when it will throw caution to the wind is when Taiwan unmistakably moves towards independence.
Westerners always say Beijing should renounce the use of force once and for all to claim Taiwan. In international politics, you don’t give away something for nothing. Certainly Beijing can renounce force only if Taiwan renounces independence. That seems like a fair trade. In fact, Beijing is willing to accept less than that. All it asks is Taiwan’s recommitment to “one China”. As Tsai and the DPP won’t do that, it’s clear their ultimate goal is secession. In that case, international law sanctions the use of force for a nation to maintain unity and fight breakaway forces.
Taiwan’s KMT, TPP team up for legislative elections to beat ruling DPP
Taiwan’s KMT, TPP team up for legislative elections to beat ruling DPP
But Washington propaganda notwithstanding, it’s pretty clear Beijing will do all it can to avoid an invasion or blockade of the island. A mainland-imposed blockade will almost certainly mean a counter-blockade and full-on economic warfare from the West, led by the US.
An amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait will be one of the most hazardous and difficult of all military operations. And despite the much-touted modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army, its actual fighting ability is untested. Since 1979, China hasn’t really fought a war. It is, after all, not a trigger-happy nation like the United States.
Whether successful or not, any attempt at unification by force will set back the economies of both the island and the mainland by decades. While unification plus nationalism are sources of the Communist Party’s political legitimacy, managing a successful economy is much closer to home for the 1.4 billion citizens of China.
There is the absurd idea, trumpeted by some Western “experts”, that Beijing will launch an invasion to distract from its governance failings. Sure, that’s a bit like burning down your own house to distract your children from noticing you are not putting enough food on the table.
China’s major PLA overhaul has one goal in mind — Taiwan
China’s major PLA overhaul has one goal in mind — Taiwan
China is not Russia, but invading Taiwan will make it more like it.
China’s rulers are clever, or at least cynical enough, to understand all that. Sadly, the secessionists in Taiwan are not.
Since the start of the Russian invasion, the island’s government under Tsai has taken every opportunity to provoke Beijing. She has made no bones about moving Taiwan into America’s geopolitical orbit; she wants to make Taiwan an enemy of the mainland and a friend of the US.
Well, a US ally, partner, pawn, vassal – call it whatever you like, that is a status for the island that mainland China cannot tolerate.
Taiwan is at the centre of the so-called first island chain. It can be used as a defence if dominated by China; an offence if taken over by the US Pacific forces. However, neutrality for Taiwan is something that China can tolerate. The US should too, unless its “pivot to Asia”, that is, containing China, has gone to its head.
A majority of Taiwanese have expressed the wish to maintain the status quo across the strait. Their best option for peace and stability is to maintain equidistant from Beijing and Washington. No one will fault it by trying to make nice with both. But things will go south if Taiwan continues on the path led by its secessionists.
Unfortunately, the opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party are trailing the DPP. In a coalition, the two parties may wrestle the DPP’s current majority in the legislature in January. As for the next island president, the Taiwanese electorate have a genuine existential decision to make.
