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TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The U.S. election on Nov. 5. could cast a shadow over U.S. support for Taiwan, experts in both Washington and Taipei said.
After former U.S. President Donald Trump won the Republican primaries on Super Tuesday on March 5, the Lai Ching-te (賴清德) administration was told to get ready for a Biden-Trump rematch. If Trump was to win a second term, analysts said the U.S.-Taiwan relationship would likely become more unpredictable.
The U.S. has upheld a policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan — publicly acknowledging the “one China” policy, while unofficially maintaining ties with Taiwan and providing defense support under the Taiwan Relations Act. However, Taiwanese scholars urged the government to prepare for new “uncertainties” and use existing channels and unconventional methods to safeguard Taiwan’s interests.
U.S. President Joe Biden has on multiple occasions expressed his desire to support Taiwan in the event of an unprovoked attack by China. His 2025 budget proposal released on Monday (March 11) included US$100 million in aid to Taiwan, the first standalone request for Taiwan military assistance, according to the State Department.
Asked in a Fox News interview in July whether America should defend Taiwan against China, Trump declined to answer. Instead, Trump focused on the economy and chips, claiming that Taiwan “took our business away,” and “we should have stopped them. We should have tariffed them.”
Trump has also declared his opposition to funding for Ukraine in its fight against Russia, causing House Republicans to postpone a US$95.3 billion aid package, which the Biden administration requested.
Speaking at a Taipei seminar after Super Tuesday, Taiwanese diplomat Stanley Kao (高碩泰) said that Biden is a more traditional American leader, while Trump is “transactional” and might try to bargain with Taiwan’s leaders. If faced with another Trump presidency, Lai must prove Taiwan’s value to the U.S. to ensure stable relations, he said.
Shen Yu-chung (沈有忠), a political science professor at Tunghai University, added, “The only thing we can be certain of is that Trump’s return to the White House would bring significant unpredictability and uncertainty to all.” This applies not only to Taiwan, but other U.S. allies including Japan, South Korea, and countries in Europe, he said.
Speaking at the Legislative Yuan’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee on Monday (March 11), National Security Bureau (NSB) chief Tsai Ming-yen (蔡明彥) warned that China is expected to increase pressure on the Lai administration. He said that peaceful reunification is preferred by Beijing, but that it will stoke up fears of war to scare Taiwanese into accepting “unification and co-prosperity.”
Lawmakers also questioned Tsai about the U.S. election and its possible impact on Taiwan. Tsai acknowledged that Biden and Trump hold distinct views on security, noting the main contrast is that Trump seeks unilateralism while Biden favors multilateralism.
However, Tsai said both candidates are interested in maintaining security in the Taiwan Strait. He said Democrats and Republicans alike see Beijing as a competitor, and both Biden and Trump endorsed more than 10 rounds of arms sales to Taiwan during their respective presidencies.
He said this conveys that “regardless of who wins, there will be no substantial changes in the U.S. policy of maintaining friendly ties with Taiwan to counter China.”
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