At News18’s Rising Bharat Summit 2024, being held from March 19-20, Network18’s Managing Editor Palki Sharma spoke to distinguished international relations theorist, John Mearsheimer. The conversations spanned a variety of topics, from the Russia-Ukraine war to the tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
Here are the excerpts from the interview:
Palki Sharma: What would you call the current world order? Is it still unipolar with America in the lead or is it truly multipolar?
John Mearsheimer: I believe that the world today is multipolar. The unipolar moment, which ran from roughly 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed up until about 2017, was when the United States was, of course, the most powerful state on the planet by far during the unipolar moment.
Palki Sharma: Do you see India then as a bridging power trying to bridge different ideological camps or is it just tilting in the direction that that’s suited to it?
John Mearsheimer: India is an aspiring great power. The two building blocks of power in the international system are population size and wealth. You need a great deal of wealth and you need a lot of people to qualify as a great power.
The reason that China was not considered a great power until recently was because it didn’t have the wealth– it certainly had the population size. What China now has is population size plus wealth. What India has for sure is population size. It’s growing wealthier and wealthier by the year, too. But I think according to most accounts, it has not yet reached the point where it qualifies as a great power.
Nevertheless there is no question that India is a major power and it is in a very important way caught in between those three great powers [US, Russia, and China].
Palki Sharma: In the event of a conflict between India and China, do you think Russia will be forced to take a side?
John Mearsheimer: I think if there were a conflict between India and China, the Russians would do everything they can to sit on the fence and to not get committed. The Russians have no interest in having bad relations with either China or India.
Palki Sharma: Do you think Ukraine will end up joining the NATO?
John Mearsheimer: I think, politically, the Russians will go to great lengths to make sure Ukraine doesn’t join NATO. I think that the West will not bring a dysfunctional Ukraine into the alliance. So I think that Ukraine will not become part of NATO.
Palki Sharma: Do you then think the West should stop the military aid to Ukraine since the American aid is tied up in the Congress and the Europeans are still still struggling to find the money to fund this war?
John Mearsheimer: I believe that it is best for Ukraine (and I want to underline that) for Ukraine to now end the war to reach a settlement with the Russians. I think it’s imperative that Ukraine become a neutral state. I also think it’s very important that the United States cut off all assistance to Ukraine and that the Europeans collectively provide aid– economic aid, not military aid– to Ukraine moving forward until it gets on its feet.
Palki Sharma: Do you think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan in this decade?
John Mearsheimer: No, I don’t think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan anytime soon. There are a variety of reasons for that.
One of the main reasons is that for China to attack Taiwan, it has to cross a large body of water. Amphibious operations are among the most difficult military operations you can ask an army to perform. It is very difficult to cross a body of water as large as the Taiwan Strait. So, the task that the Chinese have set for themselves, if they decide to attack Taiwan, would be a formidable one.
The second point is China has not fought a war since 1979…The United States of America is fighting wars all the time.
Palki Sharma: India controls the entry to the Malacca Strait, and has an agreement with the US to allow the aircraft to refuel at Indian bases. There’s always the possibility of conflict breaking out. If that happens, what role do you see India playing there? Do you think India will have a role and will it support America militarily in a Taiwan conflict?
John Mearsheimer: I think that India, in that event, would provide indirect support for the United States. I don’t think that India would get involved in the fighting. I think if conflict broke out at a low level, the Americans would pretty much hand it by themselves– maybe with the Philippines by their side in the fight.
Palki Sharma: You have said in the past that that the US foolishly fed the rise of economic rise of China. The US is now working very closely with India. Do you foresee a potential rivalry with India in the future?
John Mearsheimer: During that second half of the Cold War, the US had a vested interest in helping China get rich, because as China got rich, it helped US contain the Soviet Union. When the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union went away, we no longer had a vested interest in helping China to get rich.
Now, let’s go to the India question. At this point in time, the US has a deep-seated interest in seeing India grow wealthier and militarily more powerful because India can help the US contain China.
India is a member of the Quad. If China develops a powerful naval projection capability into the Gulf area, India will play a key role in helping the US deal with that scenario. So, we have a vested interest in helping India grow.
If, however, China at some point in the future, goes the way of the Soviet Union– China breaks up and it’s much weaker tomorrow than it is today– and India continues to grow more and more powerful, you can rest assured the US will put its gun sides on India.
Palki Sharma: We know that you’ve criticised Israel’s actions very strongly. This is also a contrast with how you see Palestine vs Ukraine. But how do you see the end to this conflict? Do you see the Gaza War ending?
John Mearsheimer: I think the Gaza war, from Israel’s point of view, is a disaster. There is virtually no chance that Israel is going to defeat Hamas. They are going to have significant resistance from Hamas. They’re stuck in Gaza.
Countries like India and the US, which favour the two-state solution, are going to put enormous pressure on Israel over time to move to a two-state solution, which Israel doesn’t want to do. All of this is to say Israel is in real trouble.
