During a discussion titled ‘The New Wars: Policies, Practices, and Preparation’, he gave an example of the situation in the South China Sea. Occasionally, confrontational incidents involving small boats have been reported in the region, over the fact that several countries have extended competing territorial claims here.
In commentaries on China and Taiwan too, the term crops up in descriptions of Chinese actions around the island that it claims as its own.
What does grey zone warfare mean?
Grey zone warfare generally means a middle, unclear space that exists between direct conflict and peace in international relations.
A blog from the thinktank Atlantic Council quoted Clementine G Starling, a resident fellow in the Transatlantic Security Initiative, as saying, “A multitude of activities fall into this murky in-between — from nefarious economic activities, influence operations, and cyberattacks to mercenary operations, assassinations, and disinformation campaigns.”
Other experts include economic actions too, such as debt traps and economic sanctions.
Robert J Giesler, a former US military veteran, told the Atlantic Council, “One can argue that activities in the gray zone have always been a feature of great-power competition. Proxy wars, destabilizing insurgencies, legal warfare (lawfare), and information warfare—by adversaries and allies alike—have been a feature of conflict for millennia.”
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However, he added that the Cold War era, which began after the end of the Second World War in 1945, led to conditions that favoured grey zone warfare. Amid the US-USSR rivalry for ideological and economic dominance, the knowledge that both parties were armed with nuclear weapons meant direct conflicts had to be restrained.
Giesler said, “The cost of conventional conflict in the nuclear era has grown too steep, and the risk of escalation too profound. As a result, nations seek to promote their national objectives through aggression conducted covertly, or with obfuscated attribution or justification, in order to achieve their goals.”
Experts also told the thinktank that such methods are often employed by parties who have not had access to massive resources or power, traditionally. Therefore, such tactics can help gain an advantage over a more technically well-equipped adversary that is more used to conventional warfare.
What grey zone warfare looks like
Experts from the US and Europe have characterised certain Russian and Chinese actions of late as examples of grey zone warfare. It includes the Chinese military’s presence in the South China Sea.
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The Philippines is one of the countries which has challenged China’s claims, extending over around 80 per cent of the region. In December 2023, it termed the presence of more than 135 Chinese maritime militia vessels near a disputed reef as “illegal”.
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