TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan’s eighth democratic presidential election, to be held Saturday, is gearing up to be its most consequential yet: It takes place amid increasingly frequent warnings from China’s strongman leader Xi Jinping that Beijing’s rule here is “inevitable” — raising the prospect of a conflict that could draw in the United States.
Never mind that Taiwan, an island of 23 million people with a flourishing civil society and raucous political scene, has never been part of the Communist-run People’s Republic of China, and polls show that its citizens decisively do not want to be.
Further proof of that could come Saturday as Lai Ching-te, of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, is the front-runner for the presidency. If he wins, the DPP will secure an unprecedented third consecutive term — and voters will issue a clear rebuke of closer ties with China.
China has already made its displeasure at the prospect clear. Its military has surrounded Taiwan with fighter jets and warships in recent months, prompting officials in Washington to warn about a heightened risk of confrontation.
As the election has neared, China has also sent balloons, similar to the one that floated over the United States last February, toward the island, leading Taiwan’s Defense Ministry to warn of psychological warfare.
Lai’s main challenger, nationalist Kuomintang candidate Hou Yu-ih, has framed the election as nothing less than a choice between war and peace, warning that the DPP would push Taiwan toward unavoidable confrontation with China.
That would necessarily concern Washington, which views China as a competitor and sells arms to Taiwan for its self-defense, and which is already preoccupied with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
It could also have economic implications. Taiwan produces most of the world’s advanced computer chips, making it a critical link in the global tech supply chain.
Here’s what to know about one of the first big elections of the year.
